"It takes time to establish that there is indeed a slowing down of the epidemic curve"

INTERVIEW

On Sunday the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, began to speak of "shudder" in the right direction concerning the circulation of the Covid-19 epidemic.

Invited from Europe 1 on Monday, the research director at Inserm and specialist in infectious disease modeling, Vittoria Colizza, confirmed that the data made it possible to observe the first signs of a slowing down of the epidemic.

The specialist nevertheless specifies that the decline will necessarily be slow.

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"We can see it, for example on the hospitalization data, these are really the first signs", affirms the expert at the microphone of Europe 1, moderating immediately: "It still takes time to be able to consolidate this signal and be able to truly establish that this is indeed a slowing of the epidemic curve. "

During the first confinement, she said, the epidemic peak had appeared between ten and fifteen days after the entry into force of health measures.

"We're not there yet, that's why we're going to wait a few more days."

The reduction in mobility not as obvious as in the spring

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By its own admission, the confinement put in place at the very end of October is "more flexible" than that of spring.

A large number of exceptions make it possible to bypass the obligation of isolation and control them.

The study of travel flows, based on mobile data from telephone operators, had shown a 60% drop in mobility during the first confinement, explains Vittoria Colizza.

For this re-containment, the drop is currently less than 30%.

"We will have to wait more time to achieve the same goals."