The cold air is more frequent this winter, and there may be extensive rain and snow in the north
Our reporter Guo Jingyuan
Recently, the discussion about whether strong cold air will appear this winter has aroused widespread concern.
According to Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, my country's overall cold air is relatively frequent this winter, and the forces are relatively strong. A wide range of low-temperature rain and snow may occur in the north.
According to monitoring, the current state of air-sea coupling in the equatorial region is conducive to the maintenance and development of La Niña. It is expected that a La Niña event will be formed this winter and last until next spring.
Experts say that in the winter when most La Niña events are in full swing, the cold air activities affecting my country are more frequent than in previous years, and the probability of low winter temperatures in most areas of my country, especially the central and eastern regions, is higher.
According to Jia Xiaolong, the National Climate Center and the Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources have recently organized a national climate trend forecasting joint meeting this winter and next spring. The main conclusions show that the cold air activities that are expected to affect my country this winter will be frequent, mainly in the northwest route. Most of the temperatures are close to the same period of normal year to low, and special attention should be paid to the large-scale process of strong low-temperature rain and snow in the midwinter.
"Under such an overall situation, this winter, with the exception of my country's northeastern and eastern coastal areas and plateau regions that are slightly warmer, the temperature in most other areas is normal to low, and precipitation is generally more in the north than in the south." Jia Xiaolong Said that because of the impact of La Niña, the overall conditions of water vapor transportation in southern my country are deviated and precipitation is low.
Experts pointed out that under the trend of global warming, the relationship between the factors that affect my country's climate is very complicated, and La Niña is only one of the important factors that affect my country's winter climate.
“my country’s winter is not only affected by tropical oceans, but also cold air from high latitudes. Changes in atmospheric circulation in mid-high latitudes, including changes in sea ice and snow, will also affect the mid-high latitude circulation system. The prediction of winter climate should be considered from multiple angles." Jia Xiaolong said.
Jia Xiaolong reminded that my country's climate change is very obvious this winter, especially the temperature change.
The results of the climate trend consultation also showed that in the early winter, with the exception of low temperatures in western Inner Mongolia, northeastern Northwest China, and parts of southern China, most of the country's temperatures were close to normal or slightly higher.
Experts suggest that this winter, with frequent cold air activities and large temperature fluctuations, it is necessary to be alert to the adverse effects on the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
With the opening of the heating season in various places, the haze weather in central and southern North China will hit again.
How about the atmospheric circulation and atmospheric diffusion conditions this winter?
According to Jia Xiaolong's analysis, it is expected that the cold air on the West Road in winter is expected to be relatively strong in winter, and the mid-high latitude circulation will turn into a zonal pattern in the spring next year, and the meteorological conditions for the diffusion of air pollution will significantly deteriorate.
In addition, in the central and eastern South China and southern Jiangnan, the overall temperature in winter and spring is relatively high, and the precipitation is relatively low. The possibility of continuous drought in winter and spring is relatively high. It is necessary to strengthen water resource scheduling and management and the construction of farmland water conservancy facilities to prepare for drought early.
Guo Jingyuan