In Paris, some indicators seem to have fallen slightly in recent days.
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Caroline Politi / 20 Minutes
In Ile-de-France, more than 1,000 patients are now hospitalized in intensive care.
In Paris, the incidence rate nevertheless seems to be stabilizing or even declining slightly.
The factors explaining this decline are still difficult to exploit.
Should we see a glimmer of hope?
After having skyrocketed since mid-September, the incidence rate of the coronavirus - that is to say the number of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants - seems to have stabilized and even to have started a very slight decline in the region. capital for a few days.
Thus, according to data published by Public Health France *, this rate was established on October 30 at around 519 cases per 100,000 inhabitants against 615 cases - a record - at the beginning of last week.
A decrease that cannot however hide an extremely worrying situation: in Paris, the incidence remains clearly above the national average (431) and ten times higher than the alert threshold set by the health authorities (50 cases per 100,000) .
"We must remain very cautious about these data, nothing, for the moment, allows to indicate a lasting decline", we advance the Regional Health Agency (ARS) of Ile-de-France which estimates that it is “far too early” to speak of a possible “plateau”.
“We are unfortunately not there yet.
However, some indicators seem to take the same path.
The test positivity rate * in the capital stabilized at around 20% last week, slightly below the national average of 20.6%.
A level which remains, once again, extremely high.
Likewise, the virus's reproduction rate - that is, the number of people infected on average by a positive person - has fallen faster than the national average: it is now around 1.14 in Paris against 1.33 for the whole territory.
Factors that are difficult to identify
It remains to be seen whether these data are the sign of a recession that has started or a simple air hole in the statistics.
Can we see the first effects of the curfew, which came into effect throughout the region on October 17, combined with the All Saints holidays?
The first results were felt about ten days later, which is generally the minimum time necessary for a measurement to bear fruit.
The regional health agency is much less optimistic: this slight inflection would actually be mechanical.
A delay in the transmission of PCR tests by laboratories was noted last week.
In short: a rebound is highly likely in the days to come.
"The data of last week and this beginning of the week are underestimated, a catch-up is currently in progress", indicates the ARS.
And to specify: “When we analyze the data collected six days ago, more reliable because consolidated, we do not observe any inflection.
On the contrary, both the incidence and positivity seem to increase at the same rate as in the course of October.
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A critical situation in the hospital
Anyway, the hospital tension remains at its height.
The symbolic bar of 1,000 patients hospitalized in intensive care for Covid-19 on the 1,200 usual beds in the region was crossed on Tuesday.
In Paris alone, 27 new patients were admitted to intensive care and 112 hospitalized in a traditional department for the single day of Monday.
Figures that have more than doubled in a month.
Of course, we are still a long way from those of the spring - there were 3,000 patients in intensive care at the end of March in Ile-de-France - but unlike the first wave where hospitals had massively deprogrammed interventions, many beds are currently occupied by patients suffering from other pathologies.
Hence the fear of a second wave even worse than the first.
* Rate calculated from the average of the last seven days in order to erase daily variations and in particular those linked to the weekend.
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