The peak of hospitalization of Covid-19 patients should occur the "second week of November", said epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet, member of the Scientific Council, on Sunday.

According to him, the month of November will be "very tense" in hospitals, before a probable drop in a month.

The peak of hospitalization of Covid-19 patients should occur the "second week of November", said epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet, member of the Scientific Council, on Sunday, for whom November will be "very tense" in hospitals, before a likely decline in a month.

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A peak in hospitalizations during the second week of November

"We expect a peak in hospitalizations, I would say in the second week of November. On the peak of intensive care, it is the third week of November, and then we will see a decrease, he explained during the Grand Jury RTL-Le Figaro-LCI: An evolution "which means that we will only return to the" current "level in a month".

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6,000 patients in intensive care around mid-November?

"We are going to have a period when it will increase, we cannot prevent it", developed the doctor.

"It will come down, come back to where we are today in a little over a month."

His remarks take up the latest projections from the Institut Pasteur, sent to the Scientific Council, which guides the government.

Projections from the Institut Pasteur estimate the number of patients in intensive care to be 6,000 around mid-November, if the re-containment started on Friday produces the same slowdown in contamination as in the spring, during the first confinement.

"It would take two months of confinement to drastically curb the circulation of the virus"

According to Arnaud Fontanet, "if the confinement works well (...) we can expect a 65 to 80% drop in infections".

But it would take two months of confinement to drastically curb the circulation of the virus, he observes, which would extend the restrictions to the end of the year holiday season.

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"This Christmas will not be like in previous years," he warns, predicting "still significant virus circulation" at this time.

The Minister of Health Olivier Véran made similar comments in the JDD.

Christmas "will not be a normal holiday" this year, he said.