Toulouse, Monday September 28, 2020, Toulouse University Hospital.

Hospital emergencies.

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Tristan Reynaud / SIPA

  • Santé Publique France publishes a weekly epidemiological report every Thursday evening, which the agency's experts decipher to the press on Friday morning.

  • This week's report shows a very significant increase in both the incidence, the number of hospitalizations and deaths.

  • Additional data to show that the curfew would not have been enough to stop this second wave.

Why this new confinement?

Wouldn't the curfew have been enough to slow down the second wave of Covid-19?

If some French people are still wondering about the usefulness of the new restrictive measures, the figures of the latest epidemiological point of Public Health France leave little doubt about the seriousness of the situation.

The number of new patients is soaring, especially among those over 65, there are 3,000 patients in intensive care, 1,300 deaths in one week… A brief overview of the main lessons of this new assessment, with more significant data than daily points, but not so much more reassuring.

Sharp increase in cases despite curfew

In all, over this last week (from October 19 to 25, 2020), 263,143 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recorded in metropolitan France.

That is an increase of 54% in seven days.

We went from an incidence rate of 259 cases / 100,000 inhabitants to 399 / 100,000.

Another worrying data: the positivity rate was 18.8% on October 25, it is 19.4% today, up sharply compared to the previous week (13.9%).

A sign that the curfew, imposed for two weeks in some cities and regions, has not made it possible to slow down the frantic course of the epidemic?

"It is still a little early to conclude on the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the curfew, nuance Daniel Lévy-Bruhl, epidemiologist at Public Health France.

Because we must take into account the incubation period of the disease, which can go up to fourteen days, he says.

And the time between when a person becomes symptomatic, when they receive their test result, and when the agency records it, which can take two weeks.

It will be complicated to analyze the results of this curfew, because there were vacations and the new containment measures.

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+ 62% hospitalizations for Covid

"On October 27, 2020, 18,978 cases of COVID-19 were hospitalized in France, including 2,918 in intensive care", specifies the last epidemiological point.

Either a level unprecedented since the beginning of May.

"The number of new hospitalizations jumped 62% in one week," says Christine Campèse, epidemiologist at Public Health France.

There have been 8 times more hospitalizations since September among people over 65, which raises fears of an increase in deaths in the following weeks.

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The concern is therefore appropriate for hospitals, where caregivers have been sounding the alarm bells for weeks.

The weekly update even concludes: “the increase in the number of cases, the number of people newly hospitalized, the number of people newly admitted to intensive care in all regions of metropolitan France announces hospital tensions in all regions.

The next few weeks will be decisive as to the impact of the epidemic on the health system, while waiting to observe the first effects on the evolution of the epidemic of the strongest management measures (containment) announced this week.

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Nearly 3,000 patients hospitalized in intensive care

What worries the most is of course the situation of the intensive care units.

Where admissions increase significantly: 1,816 in one week, an increase of 35%.

"The three regions most affected by this intensive care are Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Ile-de-France and Hauts-de-France," continues Christine Campèse.

If momentum continues, ICU admissions will double within 14 days.

We are really on a strong dynamic of the epidemic.

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Remember that we currently have 5,800 places in these services and that Covid patients often stay there for a very long time, up to three weeks.

In his speech Wednesday evening, Emmanuel Macron assured that France could reach 9,000 resuscitation beds in all.

And warned that "whatever we do, nearly 9,000 patients will be in intensive care in mid-November, or almost all of the French capacities".

Not surprisingly, these alarming incidence and hospitalization figures are complemented by a marked increase in deaths.

We have indeed gone from 872 deaths to 1,318 in one week, or + 51%.

Mental health damaged

This weekly update focuses on a new theme, explored by the Covid-Prev study (carried out each month, and this time from October 19 to 21): the psychological consequences of Covid-19 and restrictive measures (in this case curfew, since the study was carried out before the announcement of the reconfinement).

“The mental health of the French, which deteriorated at the start of confinement, had then significantly improved for all indicators (anxiety, depression and life satisfaction) with the exception of sleep problems, which remained at high levels, concludes the study.

In the last survey carried out at the end of October, a significant increase in depressive disorders was observed compared to the survey at the end of September.

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Who are the people most affected by these mental health disorders?

"People declaring a history of psychological disorder, those declaring a very difficult financial situation, women and 25-34 year olds," said the CoviPrev study in October.

Barrier gestures better respected

The only good news from this weekly report: the French seem to be more and more in compliance with the barrier measures.

With some differences.

In fact, the systematic adoption of hygiene measures (washing hands, using a disposable tissue) has remained stable since June.

On the other hand, the measures related to the limitation of social interaction have increased for the first time since the end of confinement.

Thus, those questioned who claim to have avoided gatherings fell from 48% in September to 57% in October.

As for the wearing of a mask in public, it continues to increase: 74% of French people questioned wore it in September, and nearly 79% in October.

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  • Covid 19

  • Society

  • Coronavirus

  • Confinement

  • Health

  • epidemic

  • Curfew