Hospitals are preparing for an influx of significant patients in the coming weeks.
This could compromise a release from confinement on December 1, as outlined by the President of the Republic.
The Christmas holidays could be turned upside down and be organized "in a small committee".
Faced with the coronavirus, what awaits hospitals in the coming weeks looks terrible.
The projections established for the next 15 days announce an influx of patients, more massive and more deadly than last spring.
On November 6, there could be up to 5,700 patients in intensive care throughout France, which represents 98% of all beds available in the country.
On November 13, 8,100 people could be in intensive care, well beyond the reception capacities of French hospitals.
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The most affected region is Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes.
The number of patients there would reach 200% of the maximum resuscitation capacity, which means that hospitals in the region will have to be helped and that patients will have to be transferred.
As for mortality, if we consider today that the number of contaminations is largely underestimated, we are more around 200,000 new cases rather than the 35,000 announced by Public Health France.
We should therefore end up with a daily mortality of more than 1,000 patients in a week.
Already, epidemiologists fear that the brake will not be brutal enough with this new confinement.
Concretely, the curve should bend more slowly than during the first confinement.
The effects should not be visible for 3 to 4 weeks.
Therefore, several scenarios are on the table for the unfolding of the end of the year.
The confinement could last longer, but nothing for the moment tells us that this scenario will be retained.
This morning, Jean-François Delfraissy, explained that the most likely would be that the confinement, announced until December 1, ends with a curfew that would remain in place during the end of year celebrations.
The Christmas holidays would then necessarily be "different" in his words, probably "in a small group and probably under curfew".
Deconfinement would therefore be more cautious, and would go through a curfew.
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For his part, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran asked the French for the greatest precaution for these holidays.
Tests may have to be done before joining his family.