Scenarios for the Renaissance Dam crisis: a binding agreement or a devastating bombing?

In an interview with the "Scenarios" program (10/29/2020), Al-Anani explained that there are Ethiopian measures confirming doubts about its intentions regarding reaching a binding agreement, reminding the start of filling the dam reservoir in July without informing the downstream countries despite the continuing negotiations. With them, considering it a kind of deception for Egypt and Sudan.

After about two months of pause and stalemate, negotiations resumed on the Renaissance Dam, after only 4 days of dramatic and surprising statements by US President Donald Trump, in which he warned that the crisis may end with an Egyptian military move that leads to the bombing of the dam.

The last round of negotiations between the three parties concerned with the crisis came after many rounds of negotiations that stalled over the past years, amid mutual accusations of intransigence between Cairo and Addis Ababa.

For his part, former Sudanese Minister of Irrigation and dams expert Othman Al-Tom said that Khartoum started moving again due to the lack of success of the previous rounds of negotiation, noting that the draft agreement prepared by experts affiliated with the African Union after their meetings for more than a month was very balanced, and Khartoum wished to be given A greater role for this draft, which did not happen.

Al-Tom added that coordination should be made between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia regarding the possibility of a drought in the coming years, considering that the presence of the Renaissance Dam is better if this drought occurs.

The Egyptian and Sudanese demands for the necessity to reach a binding agreement, a recent study warned of the dangers of the absence of coordination between the parties, and its effects on the flow of water to the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.

The study - which was published two weeks ago and in which experts from 5 British and American universities participated - indicated that a drought in the Nile Basin is possible in the event that an emergency management agreement is not reached between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.

Here, researcher Khalil Al-Anani confirmed that there is a great convergence between Egypt and Sudan with regard to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, despite the presence of some differences in interests, considering that this will negatively affect the Ethiopian position.

He explained that these differences between Egypt and Sudan are represented in Sudan's need for the dam in order to regulate the flow of water, and to obtain from Ethiopia part of the electricity generated by the dam.

Trump's statements and the African solution

A few days ago, US President Donald Trump said that Egypt may resort to bombing the Renaissance Dam if no agreement is reached with Ethiopia.

Trump's statements shocked Ethiopia, which it considered incitement to war.

Yilma Seleshi, a member of the Ethiopian negotiating team in the Renaissance Dam negotiations, said that there is no reason for war, stressing that observers are well aware of Ethiopia's desire to reach an agreement on filling the dam's reservoir.

He added that the three countries need a solution through the support of the African Union and observers, noting that the European and African Union and the World Bank urge Ethiopia to fill and operate the dam to promote development in the upstream country.

Silesi stressed that the operation of the Renaissance Dam is linked to the water quotas between the three countries, stressing the need for these countries to share water, not to be exclusive to Egypt and Sudan only, he said.

For his part, the former US ambassador to Ethiopia David Chen confirmed that the United States has stopped billions of dollars in aid to Ethiopia until the change in Addis Ababa's position on the dam issue, in addition to Trump's statements about Egypt's resort to bombing the Renaissance Dam.

Shein added that the United States tried to mediate more than once in the Renaissance Dam file, but it failed, considering that the biggest role lies with the African Union.

But Al-Anani considered that Egypt's signing of the Agreement of Principles relating to the Renaissance Dam in 2015 was a major political mistake, because this agreement deprived Egypt of its historical rights in the waters of the Nile that were included in the agreements of 1902, 1929 and 1959, and it also destroyed any legal reference that can be referred to when disputing. It is the biggest mistake that Egypt is paying the price for now, he said.