Passers-by in the street just before curfew, in Biarritz, October 26, 2020. -

GAIZKA IROZ / AFP

  • Only two weeks after announcing the curfew for 46 million French people, Emmanuel Macron is forced to further reduce the wing, in the face of an "exponential increase in the epidemic".

  • Why was this measure, supposed to stem the coronavirus epidemic, so quickly dismissed?

  • “The epidemic is moving so quickly that we cannot afford to wait for an effect.

    Even if the curfew would be effective, there is too great a risk of exceeding the quotas in intensive care, ”warns Marie-Aline Bloch, researcher in management sciences at EHESP.

Barely implemented and already obsolete?

The curfew, an unprecedented measure chosen by the government to block the coronavirus epidemic, was put in place only ten days ago in Paris or Marseille, and a week later in 38 French departments.

This Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron must replace it with more restrictive measures.

Proof of its ineffectiveness?

It is not so simple.

In reality, it is impossible to measure the effectiveness of this curfew.

In question ?

The too short duration of the experiment.

And the delay effect of the virus.

“What we know from modeling is that, given the incubation and transmission periods, it takes two to three weeks to see if a measure is effective or not.

This is what we saw during confinement, ”explains Michèle Legeas, teacher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health, specialist in the analysis and management of health risk situations.

“It's like a boat: you don't stop it immediately even if you shut down the machinery.

"

Contaminations that are skyrocketing

And if this measure did not have time to show its effects, it is because of the "exponential increase" in contamination, according to the words of government spokesman Gabriel Attal.

With a record of 52,000 contaminations last Sunday, and more than half of the resuscitation beds occupied by Covid-19 patients, we are far from the 3,000 to 5,000 cases advocated by Olivier Véran as a condition for lifting the curfew.

🔴The figures which show the severity of the second wave:

-Half of the sheaves


beds already occupied


-19,000 Covid patients in the hospital (against 2,500 on the 1st day of confinement in March)


-Test positivity rate at 14% ( against 2% this summer)



https://t.co/4Wnq0KYEaB # confinement2 pic.twitter.com/NqO3t7X0kD

- Leïla Marchand (@LeilaMarchand) October 28, 2020

We must then deal with the emergency.

“It's going so fast that we can't afford to wait for an effect.

Even if the curfew would be effective, there is too great a risk of exceeding the quotas in intensive care, ”warns Marie-Aline Bloch, researcher in management sciences at EHESP, specialist in the health system.

The success of the evolving curfew in Guyana

For the government, the model of a successful curfew is Guyana, where the measure was introduced on May 11.

Still in progress in the department, it started at 11 p.m., then was gradually hardened to start at 5 p.m., with a ban on driving on Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

For Clara de Bort, director of the ARS Guyana, the curfews have in any case been "very effective".

"The number of cases has stopped increasing" very quickly after the implementation of these measures, she stressed.

A situation which is however not comparable to the metropolis, where the population is older, therefore more likely to develop serious forms of the disease.

According to Marie-Aline Bloch, the figures for the weekend should provide answers on the effectiveness of the measure in several French cities.

"The new measures will only have an effect in 15 days", on the same principle of delay effect.

"We will be able to see the impact of the curfew in Paris and Marseille and eight other metropolises from this weekend, see if the curve will start to slow down," she explains.

"A risk of resistance"

Has the population been disciplined enough to make the curve bend?

“Despite everything, even if people don't do anything at 9 pm, there are still a lot of people in the cafes and restaurants.

We are only transposing behaviors over time, ”she emphasizes.

“These are areas of potential contamination.

There is a part of the population who did not understand the gravity of the situation ”, regrets Marie-Aline Bloch.

"Individual responsibility can only be expected if people fully understand the issues and the methods of transmission", adds Michèle Legeas, who deplores a lack of education on the rules imposed on the French.

"We must learn to live with the virus," Emmanuel Macron said at the end of August.

"There, we switch back to the approach" we can no longer really live because of the virus ", loose Michèle Legeas, who fears that these new rules go wrong with the public.

“It's a kind of admission of failure by the government, on the insufficiency of this curfew, which was already struggling to pass.

The question of discrediting the decisions of public authorities risks being raised.

With a risk of strong resistance, as with any good measure, ”she warns.

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