Jean Castex, October 24, 2020 in Marseille.

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Alain ROBERT / SIPA

Will France have to impose a new confinement on itself, even less radical than that of March?

We do not yet know what measures will be taken but, faced with the increase in the coronavirus epidemic, the executive wants to harden its strategy.

President Emmanuel Macron meets at the Elysee Palace this Tuesday, then Wednesday morning two Defense Councils devoted to the epidemic.

In the meantime, its Prime Minister Jean Castex must receive this Tuesday at the end of the day the political leaders then the social partners in Matignon.

These two meetings around Jean Castex aim to discuss "the tightening envisaged in the management of the health crisis" of Covid-19, said Matignon.

"Surprised" by the "brutality" of the recovery

These consultations, similar to others organized in recent weeks, appear to precede the announcement of a new turn of the screw, which could then be recorded on Wednesday morning.

A prospect made plausible by the outbreak of the epidemic.

On Sunday, France broke a new record with more than 50,000 positive cases confirmed in one day.

And the number of intensive care patients continues to climb, increasing the pressure on hospitals.

"We had expected that there would be this second wave but we ourselves are surprised by the brutality of what has been happening for ten days", underlined on RTL the president of the Scientific Council, Jean-François Delfraissy , who fears that the real number of contamination is "around 100,000 cases per day".

“Two assumptions” are on the table, he continued.

Will schools and universities reopen?

The first is "to move towards a more massive curfew, both in its schedules, in its scope at the level of the national territory, and which can also be implemented at weekends".

If that is not enough, containment could then be considered.

The second hypothesis is "to go directly to confinement", but "less hard" and shorter than that from March to May.

It "would probably make it possible to maintain a school activity and a certain number of economic activities", with increased recourse to teleworking.

"A re-containment seems plausible, it has been done in Israel and Australia with great success," said epidemiologist Antoine Flahault on BFMTV for his part.

One of the solutions he recommends is not to reopen colleges, high schools and universities on November 2 after the All Saints holidays.

These are the possibilities in particular that the Defense Councils will study in the coming days.

They should also be at the heart of discussions between Prime Minister Jean Castex and representatives of the various political forces.

46 million French people partially reconfined

But the prospect of a possible reconfinement is already provoking criticism from the various oppositions - PS, LR, France rebellious or National Rally - who criticize the government for its "lack of foresight", a "lack of anticipation" or a lack of consultation.

If the hypothesis of a general reconfinement is no longer taboo, France has already entered partial confinement, since two in three French people are now subject to a night curfew.

This concerns 54 departments in addition to Polynesia, or 46 million French people deprived of travel between 9 p.m. and 6 a.m.

"If we completely reconfine as we did in March, it is not less than 10% recession that we risk, it is a collapse of the economy", however warned the president of Medef, Geoffroy Roux from Bézieux, on RMC.

In March, confinement was decided to prevent the hospital system from creaking under an excessive influx of Covid patients.

On Monday, 2,761 seriously ill patients with Covid were hospitalized in intensive care, for a total of 5,800 intensive care beds throughout France.

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