This winter is the coldest in 60 years? Listen to what the weather experts say
Everything has science
Our reporter Fu Lili
Recently, a news that "this winter will be the coldest winter in 60 years, all this is related to La Niña" went viral on the Internet. In addition, the temperature dropped sharply in many places, and even ushered in the first snowfall of this fall. Many people believed it true. .
What are the facts?
“Actually, in early October, in northern my country, especially the typical representatives of Inner Mongolia and Northeast China, the temperature dropped to freezing point and snowfall was normal.” said Yuan Yuan, a researcher at the Climate Prediction Office of the National Climate Center. Initial frosts began to appear in the northern region in mid-to-late September, provided that the minimum ground temperature dropped to freezing point.
Yuan Yuan introduced that the cooling process was mainly affected by the anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation, which is not necessarily related to La Niña.
But in the winter weather, La Niña can't escape.
The appearance of La Niña is often associated with the overall "colder winter".
So, what exactly is La Nina?
"La Nina state (event) refers to a phenomenon in which the sea surface temperature of the central and eastern Pacific oceans at the equator is colder than normal, and the intensity and duration reach certain conditions," Yuan Yuan said.
Yuan Yuan said that according to monitoring, since August this year, the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific has entered the state of La Niña.
The National Climate Center predicts that the La Niña state will continue to be maintained in the fall, and it is expected to reach its peak in this winter, that is, a weak to moderate La Niña event will be formed this winter.
Generally speaking, in the winter when most La Niña events are prevalent, the meridian of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes of Europe and Asia may increase, and the cold air activities affecting my country are more frequent than normal. The temperature in the central and eastern regions of my country is more likely to be lower than normal. .
Since 2000, my country has had five La Niña events. Generally speaking, the average temperature in parts of eastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and northern China in winter is 1-2°C lower than normal in the same period, and in some areas it is 2°C lower.
"However, it needs to be pointed out that the impact of each La Niña event is actually different. Not every La Niña year’s winter average temperature in our country is low." Yuan Yuan emphasized, and in the context of global warming, the impact The factors of my country's winter climate are more complicated. Factors such as the melting of Arctic sea ice and changes in snow cover in Europe and Asia will affect the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, which in turn will affect my country's winter climate abnormalities.
Therefore, Yuan Yuan pointed out that whether this winter will be colder or warmer, a comprehensive judgment based on scientific analysis is needed. The specific climate prediction opinions will be officially released by the National Climate Center at the end of October.