Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who lost the elections in Belarus, issued an ultimatum to the President of this country, Alexander Lukashenko: “If our demands are not met by October 25, the whole country will peacefully take to the streets with a popular ultimatum.
And on October 26, a national strike of all enterprises will begin, all roads will be blocked, sales in state stores will collapse.
You have 13 days to fulfill three conditions. "
Accordingly, the conditions are as follows: Lukashenka must announce the date of his departure, the police must stop dispersing the protesters, and political prisoners must be released.
Tikhanovskaya's ultimatum - this, of course, sounds loud and even somewhat menacing, but what is really behind this?
A vivid reflection of the existing reality of recent years - a form without content, a loud headline, behind which - zilch and emptiness.
This Overton window does not open in favor of the authors of "color technologies", because sooner or later people will simply stop responding to all these loud statements - they will get used to it.
Boy and wolves, remember Leo Tolstoy?
You can scare non-existent wolves once.
Well, two, maximum three, and then that's it - don't shout, people won't react.
Who is the Tikhanovskaya ultimatum for?
It is clear that Lukashenka is not in the first place.
There are several addressees.
Firstly, in vain, perhaps, the European Union took Tikhanovskaya with bread and salt, nurtured, supported, arranged meetings with Macron and Merkel?
There must be some practical result after such a high reception!
Otherwise, it turns out that Tikhanovskaya is touring in the status of the main fighter against the "dictator", she is honored by the bronze German chancellor herself, and at the exit - zero and silence?
According to the laws of drama, some "significant" action should have followed after this.
And it followed.
An ultimatum is a perfectly acceptable solution: it sounds loud, but does not oblige you to anything.
Simple and tasteful, as they say.
It turns out that the European Union has not worked in vain.
As a positive result of the enterprise with Tikhanovskaya, it will be possible to put a tick in the reporting documents - she took part in protocol meetings with important people, made a statement.
The budgets have been used, the acts have been signed.
Secondly, as we have already said more than once, the scenario in Belarus was not launched in order to try to throw off Lukashenka for good luck and then pretend that nothing happened.
No, the conflict should smolder, so that at a convenient moment you can splash gasoline, and everything flared up.
There is not the slightest doubt that from now on these attempts to bring the civil confrontation into a hot phase will be undertaken regularly and from different sides.
To do this, in the camp of the pro-Western opposition, it is necessary to maintain a spark of hope, sending them rays of support.
Tikhanovskaya's ultimatum in this case is very suitable: it does not require additional funds, and it sounds menacing, providing the very desired therapeutic effect of uplifting spirit.
And of course, Alexander Lukashenko himself must systematically receive loud signals of dislike from his European non-brothers - for the sake of order and so that he does not relax and get nervous.
At the same time, it is obvious that the chances of an ultimatum for success are zero, if you do not take into account force majeure - all people are mortal.
Show me the president, who has the power and support of the security forces in his hands, who will suddenly agree to name the date of his departure from office.
This time.
With what forces is Tikhanovskaya going to organize a general strike, block the roads?
The opposition is currently weak in Belarus, and the law enforcement agencies are working well.
These are two.
You can name more reasons, but these are quite enough.
In classical international politics, the purpose of an ultimatum is usually not at all for the stated requirements to be achieved.
The goal is to get carte blanche for subsequent tough actions if the conditions of the ultimatum are not met.
And what tough actions can Tikhanovskaya take?
Yes, none.
The true goals of the beautiful configuration called the Tikhanovskaya ultimatum are simple.
Protest moods should not subside - therefore, they should be supported at least by a word.
In a successful scenario, it would be nice to cause an exacerbation and growth of the conflict, an increase in confrontation in the country, and in an unsuccessful one - well, at least threaten with a fist.
Surely on October 26, the opposition will take another attempt at aggressive actions against the “Lukashenka’s regime”, for which, in turn, the security forces and people “in civilian clothes” will be ready.
And of course, the strengthening of the EU sanctions against Alexander Lukashenko can become a pleasant dessert for the main course.
Failure to comply with an ultimatum is a good excuse for that.
The main practical conclusion for us from what is happening in Belarus and around it: the car launched by the Western "partners" against the president of this country is working, rumbles and does not plan to slow down.
Considering that the situation in Belarus was managed and the "color revolution" did not happen, it would be strange to expect any sudden decisive outcome at the end of October after the expiration of the ultimatum.
But the conclusion for Alexander Lukashenko himself is very simple and is expressed in the recently become a duty quote from the eternal classics: "What, son, did your Poles help you?"
Not brother Mr. Lukashenko to his European partners, but how many empty and unnecessary words were said to them on the eve of the elections!
How much time has passed since the events described in "Taras Bulba", and our people are advancing and advancing on the same rake.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has yet to realize this.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.