French people getting out of a train on vacation, illustration -

LIONEL URMAN / SIPA

  • This Saturday marks the start of two weeks of school holidays, the first since the epidemic rebound observed in September.

  • While all the traffic lights of the virus are bright red, should we fear that these holidays will further deteriorate the already complicated epidemic situation in France?

  • Between notes of hope, real reasons for concern and unknowns,

    20 Minutes

    takes stock.

This Saturday will mark the beginning of the All Saints holidays, until November 2.

Two weeks off for French schoolchildren, two weeks of questions about the coronavirus.

While all the lights are already red on the circulation of the virus in France and the second wave is now accepted by the government, will the holidays accelerate the spread of the epidemic, slow it down or change nothing?

The government is blowing hot and cold on this.

From October 8, in his weekly update, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran invited "the greatest caution" concerning All Saints' Day, citing the example of August when many reunions between relatives had according to him allowed the virus more circulate.

This Monday, the Minister of Health invited the wearing of a mask during the holidays, even within the family home, a fortiori in the presence of elderly or fragile people.

Same caution on the part of Jean Castex, who encouraged the French this Monday morning to protect "grandpa and grandma" ... But at the same time, the Prime Minister urged not to deprive himself of going to visit them, when the secretary of He State in charge of Tourism, Jean Baptiste Lemoyne, squarely encouraged the French to book their holidays, "as a patriotic act" for the economy.

The worst-case scenario is impossible because already there

In fact, should we fear this All Saints' Day and these departures on vacation?

Pascal Crépey, epidemiologist at the Ecole des Hautes Études en Santé publique de Rennes (EHESP), already rules out the worst case scenario, where the holidays exported the virus to places where it does not yet circulate: "The problem does not occur. not pose since it is already circulating everywhere ”.

Certainly… But despite everything, in a country with very disparate epidemic levels - for example, Paris has a test positivity rate above 17% when the national average is below 12% - could the holidays not accelerate? transmission of the virus in areas where it circulates little?

“It is in reality unlikely, tempers the professor from EHESP.

For such phenomena of acceleration to happen, you need a very long and very massive exposure, which will not normally happen on All Saints' Day.

"He takes as an example the massive departure of Ile-de-France residents in March on the eve of confinement, which had raised fears of a massive acceleration of the virus in other French regions:" In the end, this had no effect on the epidemic ".

A breath of fresh air?

For doctor Jérôme Marty, this circulation of the virus in all regions of France should even have some positive effects on the cautious behavior of the French during the holidays.

While the first wave was concentrated in a few regions such as the East or Ile-de-France, “today, with a virus circulating everywhere, everyone has a loved one or a relative of close contact or positive case for Covid-19.

And we only believe what we see.

Having this reality in front of the eyes, for all French people, makes it easier to apply barrier gestures and to exercise caution ”.

Proof of this is, according to an OpinionWay survey for Mondial Assistance published on Tuesday, only 14% of French people plan to leave during All Saints' Day.

The holidays could even mark a slowdown in the circulation of the virus.

If July and August were seen in retrospect as the months of epidemic recovery, it was in September that everything accelerated, and the causes are clearly identified: back to school, back to work, back to university. .

Three communities that are on the podium of current clusters.

Faced with this observation, "the holidays could have a positive effect, with the closure of schools, certain universities, and fewer people at work because they are on vacation with their children", theorizes Pascal Crépey.

The flu, an example to hope?

He recalls in particular that during flu epidemics, the holidays often mark a slowdown in contamination.

Nevertheless, the epidemiologist invites himself to be wary of this comparison, because if children are the main transmitters of influenza epidemics, in the case of the coronavirus, "it is more young adults and adults".

So not sure that the holidays have such a positive effect.

Especially since the risks are very present, with many family reunifications to be expected, the dangerousness of which we know (and which also appear in the most frequent cases of clusters).

Frivolity, aeration and unknown

If Jérôme Marty saluted the prudence of the French, he knows how it can fly away during the frivolity of the holidays: "Who says holidays says freedom, says relaxation, especially in the family circle where we feel unconsciously protected because we are with his own.

We can't even throw stones at them because it's a cognitive process beyond their control, but it's true that in the family, we tend to let go of the mask, in every sense of the word.

"

The opportunity for him to recall the importance of barrier gestures: masks if possible, frequent hand washing, avoiding contact with people at risk ... and above all, "despite the temperatures, ventilate closed places as much as possible, especially with fragile people ”.

Because for Pascal Crépey, the influence of All Saints' Day on the circulation of the virus will also and above all depend on individual behavior: "If the French go on vacation and only do activities with the family home in which they already live, it it's hard to see how the epidemic could get worse.

If everyone goes to their grandparents and touches them without any barrier or protection gesture, there indeed, this could have serious consequences.

"During these two weeks of leave," all scenarios are possible, "concludes the specialist.

All that remains is to pay attention to oneself and to others.

Economy

Tourism: The government encourages the French to book their All Saints holidays

Society

Holidays: Only 14% of French people plan to leave for All Saints' Day

  • Covid 19

  • Society

  • epidemic

  • School vacation

  • Coronavirus

  • Health

  • Toussaint