Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, October 13th (Dong Xiangyi) On October 12th, E-House Real Estate Research Institute released the latest issue of "National Residential Land Transaction Report in Hundred Cities" (hereinafter referred to as "Report"), "Report" shows From January to September, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities nationwide was 489.26 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%.
The year-on-year growth curve of cumulative land transaction area at the beginning of the year showed a V-shaped trend. Even if the policies of some cities across the country tightened in the third quarter, the land transaction market still showed a recovery trend.
The 100 cities in the report are divided into first, second, third and fourth-tier cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Harbin, Changchun, Shenyang, Dalian, Tianjin, Dandong, Qinhuangdao, Tangshan, Chengde, Langfang, etc.
Land market transactions in the first 9 months showed a V-shaped trend
The report shows that from January to September, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities across the country was 489.26 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%.
"The year-on-year growth curve of cumulative land transaction area at the beginning of the year showed a V-shaped trend. Even if the policies of some cities across the country tightened in the third quarter, the land transaction market still showed a recovery trend." The overall sales performance of real estate companies in the third quarter of this year is good, which can easily encourage them to actively acquire land, which in turn will further revive and rebound related cities and cities."
The report predicts that the performance of the city in the first September will basically make the performance of the city in the whole year not too pessimistic.
In the fourth quarter, hundreds of cities in the country are expected to still have a small recovery trend. Under the pressure of land finance and other pressures, some cities will still actively provide land, which will help support the land transaction market.
Source: "Report on Residential Land Transaction in Hundred Cities in China"
Second-tier cities turn positive for the first time after 8 consecutive months
Specifically, in the first-tier cities, from January to September, the transaction area of residential land in the four first-tier cities was 29.66 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%.
The report pointed out that from the year-on-year growth curve of the cumulative land transaction area at the beginning of the year, it showed an inverted U-shaped trend, indicating that the current land market is cooling, which is a slight difference from the trend of Baicheng.
Judging from the land acquisition actions of real estate companies, in the first half of this year, the enthusiasm for land investment in first-tier cities is very strong, and the market situation in prefectures is likely to become active.
As for second-tier cities, from January to September, the transaction area of residential land in 32 second-tier cities was 262.84 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%.
A positive signal appeared in the land transaction market in second-tier cities, that is, the year-on-year growth curve of cumulative land transaction area at the beginning of the year turned positive for the first time.
According to the analysis of the report, in the first August of this year, the indicator was in a negative range, but the decline gradually narrowed. In September, the indicator turned from negative to positive.
Representative cities include Wuhan, Shijiazhuang, etc., all of which have come out of the negative growth zone, and there is momentum for the recovery of prefectures and cities.
Due to the relatively large number of land kings in second-tier cities before, the subsequent land transaction market is also vulnerable to policy influence.
In terms of third- and fourth-tier cities, from January to September, the transaction area of residential land in 64 third- and fourth-tier cities was 196.76 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%.
The report believes that the land market transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities are better than expected, and the growth rate in the first nine months is even the highest level since February 2019.
Some real estate companies with a national layout are still optimistic about the investment in core third- and fourth-tier cities, and they will still accelerate the pace of land acquisition.
In October, places including Xuzhou and Shaoxing were obviously in control of prefectures and cities, so relevant real estate companies should also guard against the risk of policy tightening when acquiring land.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Zhongshan's year-on-year growth rate is as high as 926%
According to the report, from the ranking of residential land transactions in 100 cities across the country, Zhongshan's year-on-year growth rate was as high as 926%, which was a big gap with other cities. The year-on-year growth rates of Dandong and Xiangyang exceeded 200%; Xianghe, Beihai and Haikou experienced the highest declines in the transaction area, with a decline of more than 70%.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, told a reporter from China-Singapore Jingwei, “Zhongshan has a low base last year, but Zhongshan did not sell much land before. Now land transactions are still relatively active. Last year, housing transactions were all It’s okay. It’s true that there are few shots, and being able to get such a high price shows that the increase in land supply this year is more obvious."
Source: "Report on Residential Land Transaction in Hundred Cities in China"
Although the overall recovery of hundreds of cities, prefectures and cities across the country, some cities are still slightly colder.
For example, in hot cities such as Haikou and Kunming, prefectures and cities were very strong in the past, but the year-on-year growth curve of land transaction area from January to September this year is still negative, and the decline is large.
"This shows that this type of urban residential transaction market is under pressure to cool down, and it is indeed difficult for the land market to rebound strongly." Analysis of the report.
Yan Yuejin said that from the perspective of the residential land transaction market in 100 cities across the country in the first September of this year, the V-shaped trend has been maintained, indicating that the land market has better resilience, even when policies are tightened in various regions.
Of course, there are differences among cities in getting out of the shadow of the epidemic and promoting the recovery of the land market.
Similar to Wuhan and Shijiazhuang, they have come out of the negative growth zone, and the prefectures and cities have recovered quickly, while the cities including Haikou and Kunming have obviously fallen into a trough, and the prefectures and cities are relatively cold.
He predicts that in the fourth quarter of the country’s hundreds of cities and cities are expected to still have a small recovery trend, but the three red line policies are constantly releasing their effects. If some companies do not have better sales and cash flow support, then land purchases will be slightly conservative. This is what we need to pay attention to when predicting the fourth quarter.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract and use in other ways.