Renewed tension in Nagorno-Karabakh
Audio 03:07
Armenian artillery attacks Azerbaijani positions in Nagorno-Karabakh, October 4, 2020. Armenian Defense Ministry via AP
By: Bruno Daroux Follow
7 min
This week, The World in Questions focuses on the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan since September 27 over the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Can we hope for a political and diplomatic outcome to this conflict which is dangerously resurfacing in the South Caucasus?
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Well, it won't be easy.
A truce in these very violent fighting between Azerbaijani soldiers and separatist and Armenian troops will be welcome.
Faced with this escalation, which constitutes the most serious clashes since a ceasefire was established in 1994, diplomats are trying to get the two parties to negotiate between them.
To better understand the current impasse, we have to go back in time.
Because Nagorno-Karabakh is the sad story of a mountainous region forcibly attached in the 1920s to the new socialist republic of Azerbaijan, to the chagrin of Armenia, which was also under Soviet rule. .
The decision had been taken by a certain Stalin.
And so this enclave, populated in great majority by Christian Armenians, was encrusted within a territory dominated by the Muslim Azerbaijanis.
For almost 70 years, Armenia unsuccessfully demanded the return of Nagorno-Karabakh to its purse.
It was not until Perestroika and then the collapse of the USSR that things change: seeing Azerbaijan and Armenia declare their independence, the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh decided to do the same.
But their gesture was never recognized by the international community.
Azerbaijan, yesterday as today, believing to be within its rights, and not being able to tolerate an illegal secession, sent troops.
The Nagorno-Karabakh war in the early 1990s was deadly - 30,000 dead.
It ended for the benefit of the Armenians, who succeeded in conquering territories around Nagorno-Karabakh.
And a ceasefire in 1994. Neither peace nor war.
Frozen conflict.
Since then, we are there.
And regularly, skirmishes or more serious clashes break out - as in April 2016, lasting four days.
But this time the conflict seems bigger and more complex.
More important, because the animosity between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis seems stronger, the military engagement heavier.
More complex, because other powers are interfering in the affairs of the Caucasus.
And first of all Turkey, which, under the aegis of President Erdogan, through cultural proximity to Baku, supports Azerbaijan militarily and politically.
Opposite, Russia, which, with France and to a lesser extent the United States, has maintained political and economic ties with the two countries, is trying to find a solution and calm the situation.
Hence his strong diplomatic involvement in recent hours.
Because for Moscow, there is no question of seeing the Caucasus set on fire, which is in a way its backyard.
No question of leaving too much room for maneuver to Turkey in this area.
As for a lasting peace, it will be difficult to obtain in this case, we are facing a textbook case of conflict between international law - favorable to Azerbaijan, and the right to self-determination - favorable to Upper Armenians. -Karabakh.
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Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia
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