At the Toulouse University Hospital, during the training of caregivers in the procedures for the care of Covid-19 patients.

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B. Colin / 20 Minutes

  • Thursday evening, the Minister of Health indicated that at the end of the weekend, Toulouse could be placed on “maximum alert” for the circulation of the coronavirus.

  • According to Olivier Véran, the indicators are bad, in particular the rate of Covid cases in intensive care, which would reach 30%.

  • At the Toulouse University Hospital, "only" 10% of intensive care beds are occupied by Covid-19 cases.

    We are talking more about stabilization compared to the increase of two weeks ago.

The Pink City is once again on probation.

Thursday evening, during his weekly address to take stock of the coronavirus epidemic, Olivier Véran announced that the two large metropolises of Occitania, Montpellier and Toulouse, showed "worrying epidemic characteristics".

“A proportion of patients in intensive care which is increasing and which could exceed 30% in the coming days.

The health situation worsened a little faster than expected.

(…) We give ourselves a few days of observation (…) and if the indicators are crossed, a switch to the maximum alert zone could be operated by Monday morning, ”warned the Minister of Health.

Olivier Véran announces that Toulouse and Montpellier could switch to maximum alert zone "by Monday morning" pic.twitter.com/oy5qGbxzlo

- BFMTV (@BFMTV) October 8, 2020

To justify this possible change of status, and the arrival of new restrictions on Monday, Olivier Véran relied on these famous indicators.

10% of Covid-19 in intensive care at the Toulouse University Hospital

During his presentation, he mentioned an incidence rate for the City of Toulouse reaching 225 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the last seven days and a share of Covid-19 patients in intensive care reaching 27%.

In Toulouse and Montpellier, the indicators are very close to the thresholds for passing through the maximum alert zone.

As for Paris last week, we are reassessing the situation by this weekend and the transition to the maximum alert zone could come into force on Monday.

# COVID19 pic.twitter.com/pQSJf6f42D

- Olivier Véran (@olivierveran) October 8, 2020

Figures which suggest that the situation is really not good.

Yet if we put them in perspective, they are better than last week or two weeks ago.

Last Friday, the prefect of Haute-Garonne explained that the circulation of the virus was still very active with an incidence rate in Toulouse of 317.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

If it remains above the maximum alert threshold, it is in ebb.

Just like the number of people present in intensive care.

At the Toulouse University Hospital, Thursday, 17 of the 170 resuscitation beds were occupied by positive people at Sars-Cov2, when they were 26 last week.

As for the public hospital, we are therefore far from the fateful threshold of the 30% occupancy rate mentioned by the Minister.

"Plateau phase"

“Yesterday, we had 93 patients, including 17 in intensive care, which is less than at the start of the week, especially for intubated patients.

Two weeks ago we were faced with a rise in the number of cases of which we did not see the end.

The passages in hospitalization remain strong, but we are rather in a phase of plateau, it is also what my colleagues in Bordeaux are going through ”, advances the professor Alain Didier, head of the department of pneumology at the University Hospital of Toulouse.

For those who work hand in hand with their resuscitation and infectious diseases counterparts, the measures taken beforehand have certainly had an impact, as have the lessons of spring.

“There is fluidity in the hospitalization of patients, who are resumed more quickly in follow-up care in other establishments.

We also know better how to manage contact cases and on the management, we give them corticosteroids as soon as they worsen, which avoids the critical period of the 6th and 7th days ”, continues the practitioner who fears for his part the arrival of winter and its sometimes very severe flu.

Holidays to break the chain of transmission?

Still, another indicator is supported to switch to maximum alert.

The positivity rate of the tests is indeed taken into account by the health authorities to determine whether new restrictions are necessary.

In Occitania, between October 2 and 6, it remained stable at 7.8%, even if the number of cases detected, it fell slightly.

At Toulouse University Hospital, it is around 10 to 11%.

“We also tested less, Thursday we did 1,880 compared to 2,500 per day at the peak.

Maybe people are getting tested wisely now, so beware of this positivity rate because if everyone gets tested the rate is lower, whereas if it is just tests restricted to symptomatic cases and contact cases, it will be higher ”, weighs Professor Alain Didier.

The latter hopes that the holidays will break the chain of transmission, as is the case in other epidemics.

“Unless everyone is moving.

But it's not Christmas either and the atmosphere is not there, ”he puts into perspective.

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  • Olivier Véran

  • Hospital

  • Chu

  • Covid 19

  • epidemic

  • Toulouse

  • Health

  • Coronavirus