A test to detect Covid-19, in Marseille on August 5, 2020. -

SOPA Images / SIPA / SIPA

  • In Paris, the incidence of the coronavirus is 216 and even reaches 436 in the twenties.

  • Nearly 30% of resuscitation beds are occupied by “Covid +” patients.

  • The Ile-de-France region is now classified as “enhanced alert”.

In the midst of all this “red”, “super-red” and “scarlet” news, we thought, for a moment, that we had good news in our hands, a sign that the epidemic recovery was less strong than expected in Ile-de-France. of France.

In one week, between Thursday, September 18 and September 24, the number of patients hospitalized after contracting the coronavirus increased from 2,502 to 1,843.

Six hundred and fifty-nine less.

A hope quickly showered by the regional health agency.

“It's really a data refresh.

We realized that some establishments were not at all up to date in their declarations.

However, we need to follow the situation in bed in order to be able to anticipate the weeks to come.

“The increase, over the same period, in the number of intensive care patients should have put us in tune: +57.

They were 317 last Thursday, against 260 the previous Thursday.

The Ile-de-France region is now classified as "heightened alert" and Parisian figures are on the verge of sending the capital to Marseille and Guadeloupe on "maximum alert".

For a region to turn scarlet, three criteria are observed: the incidence rate must be greater than 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, in those over 60, it must be greater than 100 cases per 100,000 and the services intensive care units must have 30% or more “Covid +” patients.

In the capital, Thursday, the incidence was close to 217 and even reached 436 cases per 100,000 in the twenties.

In the 60-69 year-old category, which is particularly scrutinized, the incidence was level with 133. As for the occupancy rate of intensive care units, it stands - at the regional level - at 28.3%.

“We are not thinking at the level of a city, was it Paris, but at the level of the region, specifies the ARS.

When one hospital is full, we direct it to another.

"

Exponential increase

The first concerns appeared during the month of July and the health situation continued to deteriorate throughout the summer and even more so in the beginning of the school year.

"We are in a critical situation", we believe today at the ARS.

Just last week, the emergency room visit rate for suspected Covid doubled.

At the current rate, 40% of the 1,200 resuscitation beds available in the region could be occupied on October 10, 60% on October 25 and 85% on November 11.

The figures are certainly far from those recorded in the spring - on the night of March 31 to April 1, nearly 3,000 patients were in intensive care, forcing the health authorities to organize emergency patient transfers - but this time the health authorities have fewer levers: a new reconfinement is difficult to envisage, as is a massive deprogramming of all surgical procedures to free the beds.

The measures announced by Olivier Véran last week - closing bars at 10 pm, sports halls, swimming pool… - will they be enough to bend the curve sharply and prevent the saturation of hospital services?

The health authorities want to be optimistic - the stricter application of barrier gestures, especially among the younger generations, can help reverse the trend and smooth out the curves - but are already preparing for the arrival of this famous new wave.

"We have been preparing for it for several weeks, we have to anticipate as much as possible so as not to be overwhelmed, but that does not mean that it will necessarily happen," nuance the ARS.

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