What has long been awaited in Baghdad has come true. On August 20, an Iraqi delegation led by Prime Minister al-Kazimi held a meeting with Trump in Washington. It was a truly historic meeting: Washington did not take the previous prime minister with Adil Abdul-Mahdi's sly squint, considering him a puppet of Iran, and did not do anything with him.
- Reuters
- © Carlos Barria
It came to incidents: Trump comes to inspect American bases and congratulate American soldiers on Christmas, the protocol says he has a meeting with the Iraqi prime minister, he is waiting for him, and suddenly Trump cancels the meeting and flies away without honoring the prime minister of a country where the United States has several military bases, even words. Finally, Kazimi and his large delegation were received in Washington for a two-day visit, which culminated in his personal meeting with Trump and a big press conference that promises big changes and funding for Iraq.
Mustafa al-Kazimi, the former chief of Iraqi intelligence, took over as prime minister in May this year. He is a compromise figure for all Iraqi forces, and the main thing that he has promised the White House is to cut the umbilical cord that ties Iraq to Iran. This is not only about security and the pro-Iranian militias that have flooded Iraq and made it a branch of Iran. Not only about the former - all - prime ministers whom Tehran has almost openly appointed over and over again, and the politicians and parliamentarians appointed by Tehran, who have scrubbed the Iraqi treasury to the core (despite the fact that Iraq is the second oil producer in OPEC!). It is also about the fact that Iraq is connected to the Iranian energy systems, and if now the same power lines are cut and the import of Iranian energy is blocked, most of the country will simply plunge into darkness.
As another example of Iranian-Iraqi interdependence: Iraqi exports to Iran - $ 10 billion a year, while trade between Iraq and Saudi Arabia - no more than $ 400 million
annually. Iraq is a strategically important outpost for the survival of Iran, I wrote about this in the column "Battle for Iraq", and so far it is difficult to imagine how al-Kazimi will take Iraq out of the orbit of Iranian influence. But let us dwell in more detail on what they talked about and what Prime Minister Kazimi and Trump agreed on at a meeting in the Oval Office.
For the sake of a beautiful television picture - a victory with which Kazimi had to
return - the Americans solemnly left the Et-Taji military base. “This is an important day! The coalition leaves our facility in the Tajji camp, moves from this base and transfers $ 347 million worth of property to the Iraqi government. We are making this transition because the Iraqi security forces have achieved success in the fight against ISIS *, ”a coalition spokesman said at the base handover ceremony Colonel Miles Caggins III.
It would seem - a triumph! Yankees go home! After the assassination of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, the Iraqi parliament issued an ultimatum to the United States - to remove all American bases from Iraq - and, by voting, adopted a legislative decision to withdraw all American bases from the country. However, behind the scenes, it remains that only part of the American contingent from Al-Taji left Iraq. Only part of the group left: a beautiful picture was needed not only for the Iraqi prime minister, but also for Trump himself, who will have elections in November. He, too, needed
"soldiers returning home from endless wars." By the end of his term, he urgently needs to knock out a debit with a loan, because he promised to end all America's wars and return the soldiers home. Well - it returns. And the rest of the Al-Tajji contingent was simply redeployed to another American base in Erbil province in northern Iraq, according to the Al-Hadas channel. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said that the redeployment took place under a bilateral agreement. There, in the Kurdish region, the Americans will simply be safer, because Et-Tajji is constantly fired at by the pro-Iranian forces of Al-Hashd al-Shaabi (its leader al-Muhandis left on January 3, 2020 with Suleimani, and the two of them, as it were, constantly send Americans daily salaam from their militarized paradise).
When journalists at a White House press conference asked Trump a direct question about the timetable for the complete withdrawal of troops from Iraq, he looked questioningly at Mike Pompeo. “We will leave as soon as we can complete our mission. The President clearly said that he wants this to happen as quickly as possible, ”he answered evasively.
In the meantime, approximately 5,000 American soldiers and diplomats are in Iraq. It is too early to withdraw troops, the United States believes. “Armed groups that are not under the full control of the prime minister are hindering our progress. These groups must be replaced by local police as soon as possible, ”said the chief of American diplomacy. "We absolutely do not need combat troops in Iraq, but we need training and security cooperation," al-Kazimi said at a meeting with Trump and the press.
In short, give us money, train our police and security services - and go, go, go. We Shiites will figure it out ourselves, without you. Al-Kazimi, who lived in Great Britain for more than ten years, learned a cunning and quiet diplomacy. The most remarkable thing is that both Washington and Tehran have high hopes for him. If he can wriggle out of the grasping to death embrace of both friends and reanimate Iraq from the ruins back to the state, he will go down in history, which has not yet been possible for all his previous colleagues.
The US apparently agrees to the withdrawal of its troops following the same scenario as Russia withdrew its troops from Chechnya: by training and leaving behind the local pro-Russian militias. But the American problem is that, unlike the mono-ethnic tiny Chechen Republic, which is the territory of the Russian Federation, Iraq is the exact opposite: it is a large country on another continent, with
many paramilitary and religious groups, ideologically, financially,
energetically and economically dependent on Tehran. ... Therefore, the author of this column looks at the Washington scenario, to put it mildly, with skepticism.
By the way, the second most important topic of the two-day talks between the US and Iraq in the White House was the same energy issue. And it looks more interesting than the endless withdrawal of American soldiers from Iraq. In short: Washington's main demand, which it puts forward to Baghdad as an indispensable condition for further deals, is to connect Iraq to a single power grid with Riyadh and Kuwait. Remove it from the Iranian power system. "It is vital that Iraq's power grid is connected to the Persian Gulf," the WSJ quoted a senior Trump administration official as saying, referring to the Cooperation Council of the six Gulf countries.
Simply put, the Trump administration is seeking to re-subordinate Iraq's entire electricity system to Saudi Arabia. And this is almost a revolution. Electricity and energy are far more strategically important than the movement of flagged paramilitary groups across Iraq. They are the factor of geopolitical ownership. The same demand was simultaneously made in Beirut by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian: to give the Lebanese power system to reform the European coalition (it is not known for sure to the French or Saudis). The parliament and the prime minister controlled by Hezbollah did not agree to this.
Saudi Arabia is negotiating a potential investment in the $ 2.2 billion Ar Ratawi project, which will allow Iraq not to waste its natural gas, but to use it to generate electricity. There are many Saudi plans for Iraq. The question is whether Tehran will allow this to happen. In Washington, Iraq and the United States signed $ 8 billion in natural gas and energy deals. General Electric Co., Honeywell International Inc., Stellar Energy, Chevron Corp., Baker Hughes Co. Are big names with big Middle Eastern ambitions.
However, the connection of the power grids of Iraq and the Persian Gulf is now difficult. To do this, Baghdad needs to completely modernize its dilapidated power grids so that their grid can receive electricity through the Saudi GCC standard, which could take a year, or more precisely, years.
The Iraqis are doing the right thing: in Washington, they are nodding and not giving up. Yes, they say, yes, we will do it, but gradually.
The author of these lines, having worked for several months on the Iranian TV channel Iran Today and having talked with foreign businessmen who tried to build a business with Tehran, knows this style like no one else: today it will hardly work, but tomorrow - Insha Alla! - let's do it. And so every day. We even suggested changing the name of the channel from Iran Today to Iran Tomorrow.
I believe that due to the Iranian influence in Baghdad, the Americans will stumble upon the same rake. Here is what Iraqi Finance Minister Ali Allawi says in response to American initiatives and demands: "The project is on the verge of defining, developing and submitting to tenders."
And also: "Iraq's electrical grid is likely to be connected to the Saudi Arabian grid." "Probably". Ah, this great style! Moreover, exactly a year ago, the WSJ came out, for example, with the headline "Iraq is going to disconnect its power cord from Iran" (August 27, 2019). Of course it does. And it will gather for a long time. For what is a year or two in the Eastern sense? This is an eternity, for which anything can happen: the US president or the Iraqi prime minister changes, the investment package will be offered by Beijing, not Riyadh, and what is there - the US can start a war with China. But all this will happen tomorrow. Not today.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
* DAISH ("Islamic State", IG) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.