The three Baltic republics, led by Poland, suddenly decided to seize the initiative in the Belarusian issue from Brussels and Washington. It looks extremely unusual. Usually, sanctions are threatened and sanctions are imposed by the EU or the United States, this is their prerogative. Moreover, decisions are made by European locomotives, which are used to listening to urgent recommendations from overseas. Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn are waiting at the reception for the moment when the case will be over and they will only have to follow the instructions of their senior comrades.
This time, the Tribaltic tigers, shaking off the habitual torpor in which they have been for years, appeared before the European public in all their geopolitical splendor. So, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda presented a three-stage plan for resolving the situation in Belarus, which was jointly developed by Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland. “We call on the authorities of Belarus, first of all, to urgently de-escalate the situation and stop using brute force against their people. Secondly, we call on the Belarusian authorities to release all detained protesters and to urgently stop their persecution. Thirdly, we hope that the Belarusian authorities will finally enter into dialogue with their citizens, ”said Nauseda.
To start such a dialogue, a certain national council should be formed, which will include both representatives of the authorities and the opposition. In the event that Minsk agrees with the conditions put forward, the Balts with the Poles are ready to act as mediators in the negotiations, but if Lukashenko refuses to act according to the proposed plan, this will entail both national and European sanctions. It is curious that, presenting the draft settlement, the leaders of the Baltic states and Poland did not speak about their own initiative, but made a statement on behalf of the entire European Union and NATO. It was said that their countries, as members of these two organizations, want to see Belarus free, democratic and prosperous.
Meanwhile, Brussels and Washington are showing increasing hesitation. They are in no hurry to impose sanctions, and even accusations against the Belarusian authorities sound timid and unconvincing, if we recall that in the 2000s the West did not find it necessary to stand on ceremony with Lukashenka, accusing him of crimes against democracy and human rights and calling him “the last dictator of Europe ". However, in recent years the situation has begun to change. In order to bargain financial and economic preferences from Russia, the Belarusian ruler began to actively blackmail her by rapprochement with the EU and the United States. Now the anti-Russian structure, which, as it seems to Europeans and Americans, has begun to line up in the Belarusian direction, may collapse in an instant. The President of Belarus will restore relations with Moscow and give a real start to integration processes within the Union State.
The West desperately does not want this. Therefore, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatens Minsk with ridiculous punishments.
Stopping the supply of American oil to Belarus is an extremely ridiculous idea, since the purchase of one batch was a symbolic gesture on the part of Lukashenka. He wanted to demonstrate to Russia that he was able to find alternative suppliers. In fact, the Belarusian economy is tightly tied to Russian oil and gas supplies.
It is very characteristic that to a direct question from journalists whether sanctions would be imposed against Belarus, Pompeo did not answer, mumbling that "these things have not yet been determined." And, by the way, Washington has real ways to deal a sensitive blow to the state of affairs in Belarus. They may well put pressure on the Europeans in order to force them to abandon the purchase of Belarusian oil products.
In the quartet of initiators of the negotiations, the main violin is, of course, Poland. She has long been trying to form an alternative political line in the EU. Apparently, now, taking advantage of the pause taken by Brussels and Washington, she wants to present them with a fact, demonstrating how everything should happen with the right course of events. That is, the partisan "Maidan" should be recognized as a force equal to the Belarusian authorities, and European sanctions should be imposed without fail if Lukashenko refuses to sit down at the negotiating table. But the Poles didn’t take too weighty allies. Their vote is not counted on any European venue.
Therefore, there are two options for the development of events. The EU may indeed decide to punish Belarus. But not at all because someone developed and suggested something there. This will be a decision taken independently by major European players with the participation of the United States. But if Brussels decides to do with edification, then the voice "thinner than a mosquito squeak" will not be heard. The three Baltic countries, under the leadership of Poland, will have to walk through the forest, which they will successfully perform. As it happened many times.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.