The deterioration in monitoring indicators for the Covid-19 epidemic suggests that France would be at the foot of a second wave of contamination. However, screening programs and the supply of masks allow the country to be better armed than in the spring, during the epidemic peak.

DECRYPTION

For a few days, Jean Castex and his government have been repeating that the country is at a turning point, where "the epidemic can tip in the wrong direction". The Prime Minister even accompanied his declarations with new measures such as the extension of the compulsory wearing of masks outside and the extension of the ban on gatherings of more than 5,000 people until October 30. It must be said that the number of people diagnosed positive for Covid-19 exceeds the bar of 1,000 new cases every day.

In all, more than 11,000 cases were recorded in one week. And the alert threshold has been exceeded in several departments. For many health professionals, especially the heads of intensive care units who see the number of cases increasing, these indicators betray the beginning of a second wave.

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"We are still in the phase where we can intervene"

Dominique Costagliola, director of research at Inserm, is more cautious. For her, France is not in the same situation as in March. "We are more in the same situation as in January or February. The epidemic was there, with low noise contamination, but the hospital was not yet overwhelmed. This means that we are still in the phase where we can intervene ", argues with Europe 1 this researcher for whom the country, from now on, is better armed than this winter. "We have tests, we have masks," she emphasizes.

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Slower progression of intensive care hospitalizations

If all the indicators are up, they still have nothing to compare with what we saw in March. With less than 400 people in intensive care throughout France, we returned to the same threshold as on March 15. Five days later, 1,300 patients were in serious condition. However, in recent days the intensive care units have filled up much less quickly. France is perhaps at the foot of the second wave, but all specialists are categorical, we still have the means to control the epidemic resumption.