- For the first time since April, the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care is no longer decreasing.
- The number of patients in intensive care, closely watched, may be an indication of the resumption of the epidemic.
- "The fact of seeing this decrease stop now, while the virus is circulating more, it is not trivial", warns the doctor-resuscitator Benjamin Clouzeau.
On Thursday, there was one more Covid-19 patient hospitalized in intensive care than the day before. More than a number, it is a symbol: since April, this is the first time that the number of intensive care admissions has started to rise again. Is this the confirmation of a serious epidemic resumption in France? It is in any case "not trivial", according to specialists.
Where are the resuscitation figures in France?
The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care due to Covid-19 has increased slightly, the Directorate General of Health (DGS) announced on Thursday. This is the first time since April 9 that this closely watched indicator is no longer falling. In total, 5,375 people are hospitalized for a coronavirus infection, including 381 severe cases in intensive care, one more than the day before. "With the rise in the circulation of the virus, and the increase in the number of clusters, the increase in cases of severe forms is not a surprise", recognizes François Bricaire, member of the Academy of Medicine and former head of department at the Pitié Salpêtrière.
Second wave or statistical error… How to interpret this figure?
Since April 9, the decline in intensive care cases has been constant. If epidemiologists urge caution and call for waiting a few more days to draw conclusions, the trend could quickly become worrying. “Seeing this decline stop now, while the virus is circulating more, it is not trivial. What the figures show is that the virus is currently circulating significantly in populations that are not at risk, especially young people, ”explains Benjamin Clouzeau, doctor in the medical resuscitation service at Bordeaux Pellegrin University Hospital. . “But the circuits are not waterproof, and these young people can also contaminate the most fragile. This automatically leads to a risk of seeing patients arriving in intensive care, ”he continues. An analysis confirmed by figures from Public Health France: the virus mostly circulates among 15-44 year olds, and it is found in particular among 20-29 year olds. A situation almost identical to that of January and February.
What other indicators should be monitored?
Every evening, the DGS publishes a press release which details the evolution of the epidemic. And all the indicators converge, announcing an epidemic resumption with a "sustained" circulation of the virus. Among the signals to watch out for, she details the number of emergency room visits for suspected coronavirus and the number of calls to SOS Médecins, two indicators that have been on the rise for several weeks.
Another indicator: the national incidence rate, which for the first time exceeded the vigilance threshold of 10 cases per 100,000 inhabitants this week, and which stands at 10.2 against 5.7 three weeks ago. It is up 78%, with an acceleration on the rise.
What new measures have been taken in the intensive care units?
By the time the first wave hit France, 5,000 resuscitation beds were available in the country. "These places have been increased, thanks to the deprogramming of operations and thanks to the mobilization of all hospitals, to 10,000 beds," Olivier Véran said at the end of March. Since then, the Ministry of Health has promised to reach 14,000 resuscitation beds. And this, while "we are in a period of calm, which has allowed caregivers of these services to breathe," recalls François Bricaire. “Since the start of the epidemic, there has been an improvement in the care of patients, and an acquisition of experience by caregivers,” he said.
Would the second wave be easier to manage than the first? Not really, nuance Benjamin Clouzeau. “At the beginning of the year, the hospital stopped to welcome these patients, the other patients had disappeared. But obviously, it will not be the same for the second wave. This time, there will be no delay in hospital interventions, ”he warns. In his department, everything is ready to face new arrivals of patients in serious condition. In the meantime, “the staff need to take a breather. We told them to be going to rest to be ready at the end of August, the beginning of September ”.
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