“The number of infected people per day, don't worry and keep an average for one week” Expert July 29, 21:08

With the spread of the new coronavirus infection, the number of infected people announced by each local government has been attracting attention, but experts can grasp the overall trend accurately without being bothered by the number of people who go up and down every day. As an indicator, the average number of infected people over the last week should be referred to.

The number of infected people per day In Tokyo, every 100 people

The number of people confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus was 366 in Tokyo on the 23rd of this month, 221 in Osaka Prefecture on the 29th, and 167 in Aichi Prefecture. The number of people is drawing attention.

However, the number of infected people announced by local governments has been affected by delays in reporting and the status of inspections, and as a result, the number of infected people in Tokyo and elsewhere has risen and falls by 100 every day.

Accurately grasp overall trends with "1 week average"

For this reason, experts are reluctant to use these daily data, and point out that the average number of people infected over the last week should be consulted in order to accurately grasp the overall trend.

For example, in the case of Tokyo, there was a difference of 235 people on the 27th day, which was the highest number of infected people announced on the 10th day after the 20th of this month, and on the 27th day four days after that, but the average for the most recent week The number of infected people was 219 on the 20th, 254.3 on the 23rd, and 252.3 on the 27th. You can see the increasing trend.

Also, in Japan, the number of infected people announced by Japan was about 2.3 times the maximum at the time of yesterday, and there was a difference of more than 560 people, but there is a sharp increase in the average over the last week, although there is a tendency to increase. The maximum difference was 1.6 times, and the difference in the number of people was 310.9.

Originally, in order to accurately understand the infection status, data showing the number of patients on each day of onset is necessary, but it takes time for investigation to check the onset date, and it takes nearly a week to collect the data. , Experts say the most recent weekly average is a useful alternative.

"Don't be swayed by the number of each day, avoid "3 dense" and live a life"

Kazuhiro Tateda, Professor of Toho University, who is the president of the Japanese Society of Infectious Diseases, said, "The number of infected people announced will inevitably vary depending on the day of the week. Looking at the average, I think we can evaluate a more consistent transition. It is also important to evaluate quickly with a simple method."

In addition, "Tokyo and Osaka are still on an increasing trend, and I am concerned that the infection will spread further. In the future as well, I will avoid crowds as much as possible without being swayed by daily numbers, and "3 dense" I would like people to be careful while living, such as avoiding "."

On the other hand, according to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of people who need to be hospitalized in Japan was 6828 at the time of yesterday, and the number of seriously ill people was 76.Therefore, Professor Tateda said, ``In addition to the number of infected people, , It is necessary to judge the response while assessing the ratio of elderly people among infected people and the increasing number of cases where the infection route is unknown.”