In July, Iran again burst into the international information space: the 25-year plan of cooperation between China and Iran, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of the Islamic Republic, was written by all the world media: from regional Al Arabiya, Tehran Times and Jerusalem Post to huge materials in The New York Times and Wall Street Journal.
The latter called the editorial "Iran and China, totalitarian twins", but the Iranian Tasnim was more poetic: "Union of the Dragon and the Lion." The dragon, respectively, is the Celestial Empire, and the Lion is one of the oldest symbols of the Persian Empire.
In general, Iran, as announced by the Rouhani presidential administration, has finally signed a long-discussed agreement on a long-term strategic partnership with the PRC. It was announced back in 2016, and then stalled due to the destruction of the nuclear deal by Trump and a campaign of colossal pressure on China, which was forced to reduce the momentum of the Iranian-Chinese cooperation that was gaining strength and again put tanker oil deals into the shadows.
The 18-page "final cut" hit the press and caused hysteria in Washington.
One of the most nightmarish geopolitical alliances that the US administration could only dream of is threatening to come true.
Let's see what's in it. In short: billions of dollars in investment in exchange for uninterrupted supplies of Iranian oil at a huge discount. Let me remind you that China receives about 75% of its oil from abroad and is the largest importer in the world, and for the needs of the powerful Chinese economy, more than 10 million barrels per day are required.
In exchange for this, China promises to invest in Iran an unheard-of amount of $ 400 billion over 25 years. But oil is still not the main thing: Iran can provide China with the keys to the Middle East. How do you like Hezbollah (the "party of Allah") in the service of the communists? An excellent plot for a political thriller! What would Ayatollah Khomeini say about this? However, this is hardly of interest to modern Iranian pragmatists.
The document mentions about 100 projects, and almost all of them are conceptually included in the grandiose geopolitical project "One Belt, One Road" by Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Airports, high-speed railways and subways will touch the lives of ordinary Iranians. China plans to develop free trade zones in Iran: in Maku in northwestern Iran (former President Ahmadinejad began his political career here as governor), in Abadan, where the Shatt al-Arab river flows into the Persian Gulf, and on the Qeshm island in that the same bay.
The United States is particularly concerned about the ports that Iran is offering China in return for billions of investments and global protection. Two port facilities are located along the coast of the Gulf of Oman.
One of them - in Jask - opens into the Strait of Hormuz and is located in front of the entrance to the Persian Gulf, which gives the Chinese a strategic point through which most of the world's oil passes. One could only dream of such a Celestial Empire. Nearby, in Bahrain, is the headquarters of the US 5th Fleet, which controls the Persian Gulf and the strategic oil export channel.
It is known that under Xi Jinping, China is increasing its maritime influence in the region, having already built a number of ports along the Indian Ocean and created a necklace of refueling stations from the South China Sea to the Suez Canal. These ports - Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan - are commercial (yet!), But undoubtedly have great military value in a certain development of events.
An example is the first Chinese overseas military base in Djibouti (East Africa), built in 2015 under the pretext of supporting its forces participating in anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia. The base strengthened and grew and today is located several miles from the American base in the same country. In addition, the PLA (and Iran - while we can safely equate them) with a military base in Djibouti creates the rear of Yemen in the south-west, allowing it to encircle Saudi Arabia in the south, supporting the "Yemeni rebels".
Taking into account the recent PLA activity in the South China Sea in disputed territorial waters and the aggressive imperial policy of the PRC, one can understand the super-nervousness in the White House, which received Iranian "news" about the formation of a new military-economic union of the Lion and the Dragon.
The 25-year agreement also provides for the deployment of the Chinese 5G telecommunications system and the Beidou satellite system in Iran (and, accordingly, through Iran, entry into the Middle East). The American war with Huawei, sanctions and even the arrest at the end of 2018 of Huawei's commercial director Meng Wangzhou for trying to disguise Chinese investments in Iran did not bring real success. Despite everything, 5G networks were rolled out and launched in Iran in February this year.
"Iran and China see this deal as a strategic partnership that not only expands their own interests, but also opposes the United States," said Ali Golizade, an Iranian energy researcher at the University of Science and Technology in Hefei, China.
That is, China and Iran, beaten by the Americans in recent years, after the collapse of the nuclear deal by Trump in 2018, nevertheless grouped together in 2020 and create a powerful geopolitical alliance in Eurasia that opposes the world hegemon and really has a chance to oust it (despite the fact that Trump's isolationist agenda contributes indirectly to this).
Provided, of course, that this project will be implemented.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's chief adviser, Ali Agha Mohammadi, spoke on Iranian television with another topic that cuts with a sickle not only the United States, but also countries whose economy is based on raw materials. "We need to increase oil production to at least 8.5 million barrels a day to remain a player in the energy market, and for that we really need China."
“Every road is closed to Iran. The only open path is China. Whatever it is, as long as the sanctions are not lifted, a deal is the best option for us, ”said Fereydun Majlesi, a former Iranian diplomat and Iranian media observer on foreign policy, in a message from the Iranian authorities to the West.
Quite unexpectedly - like a bolt from the blue, like the eighth wonder of the world, like a character in a painting by Alexander Ivanov - a fierce opponent of the Iranian-Chinese "deal of the century" appeared in Iran itself. And this is not some pro-American liberal and a graduate of the University of Denver, but the most Ksirov hawk - ex-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Days after the Islamic Republic's cabinet approved a 25-year plan for cooperation between China and Iran, Ahmadinejad opposed a "secret deal with a foreign side" against the interests of the country and the nation. "
On June 27, at a meeting with a group of people in Gilan province (it is obvious that Ahmadinejad has unofficially already started his election campaign), he rebuked President Rouhani (without naming him, but so that everyone would understand who he was talking about) that he “ sells the country ":" Are you the owner of the country to sell it? Without informing the nation, getting into the pockets of the nation? We made a revolution so that not a single problem of the nation was hidden and no one could consider himself the master of the nation and its wealth. " To the friendly applause of the crowd, as usual.
Can bees oppose honey? How did it happen that the Chinese great project in Iran was formed publicly by the Chinese leader Xi and the liberal President Rouhani, the pro-Western Foreign Minister Zarif is today almost the voice of the great Chinese project, and the IRGC, strategically cooperating with the PLA, suddenly became an opponent of the Chinese partnership ?
Oh, this is Iran.
And Iran is bidding.
Ahmadinejad warmed up the people throughout July, so on July 13, the head of the presidential administration Mahmoud Vaezi was forced to comment on the "deal of the century" on the air of the state TV channel. He reassured the population, saying that no one can secretly accept anything, the document will definitely go through parliament, he enjoys the support of Ayatollah Khamenei and there will hardly be parliamentary approval before the end of the year due to the outbreak of the coronavirus.
What does all this really mean? Has the plan been signed by both parties? Has it been approved by the legislative and other branches of government in Iran? And in China? Is it a fait accompli or a pact of intent? Why did the Ksirov hawk Ahmadinejad oppose this plan? Is this 25-year partnership agreement reversible?
Oh, the complex drama of the Iranian authorities (and the approval of the deal by parliament, which was shifted to the end of the year) tell us only one thing: Tehran is waiting for the outcome of the presidential elections in the United States and, possibly, some other important foreign policy events. Tehran has prepared a grandiose Chinese Plan "B" in case of the failure of Plan "A".
And plan "A" is the stake on negotiations with the United States. The Chinese roadmap for 25 years is a trump card from the Iranian sleeve thrown onto the gambling table. The last argument for Washington to change its mind and return to the negotiating table on new conditions.
If the Democrats win the US elections, the chances of such an outcome are pretty high. If Trump wins, the situation is more difficult, but the "oppositionist" who opposes Rouhani and the Chinese deal of the century, the Ksirov hawk Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who plans to re-run (and win) the presidential elections in May 2021, has already been prepared for negotiations with him.
It is possible that the criticism of the "secret plan to sell the Motherland" is a homework of Iranian conservatives who have relied on Ahmadinejad in the elections. He was instructed to try to come to an agreement with the Americans when rates have already been raised to historic highs (because so far Ahmadi is the brightest and loudest opponent of the deal with the PRC). And the entire liberal camp is framed personally as "lobbyists" of China, well, they don't feel sorry for them - their eight-year period on the Olympus of Iranian politics is coming to an end. If it doesn't work out with the Americans, you can always say: I was not against China, I was against the secret deal led by Rouhani. A very Persian style of political combination, it should be noted: complex, florid, flowery.
It will be amusing if the Ksirov hawk will agree with the next US president to lift the sanctions (and they automatically take China out of the sanctions risks, so this plays into the hands of both countries).
“Two ancient Asian cultures, two partners in the sectors of trade, economy, politics, culture and security with the same views ... will regard each other as strategic partners,” reads the preamble to the Agreement.
The fact that the stakes in the game have been raised to the limit and Washington is thinking is evidenced by the fact that a long editorial in the Wall Street Journal as a response to Tehran was written by none other than Senior Advisor to Secretary of State Pompeo and US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook.
It remains aggressive, the deal is called "the despair of the Iranian regime", the whole world is called on to help develop a strategy to counter this alliance, especially Beijing, which Hook did not fail to blame for the spread of Covid-19, and so on. However, something interesting still sounded.
“We have to question Beijing's ability to finance $ 400 billion in Iranian infrastructure. By comparison, China has invested less than $ 27 billion in Iran over the past 15 years, and that was before Covid-19 hit the Chinese economy. Rumor has it that the deal includes oil concessions to Chinese companies, a rationale for a presence for the Chinese military, and a long-term lease on Chinese islands are all plausible, and the military support for Iran offered by China, which both sides are keeping secret, will only exacerbate the crisis of Iranian legitimacy. regime ".
“The crisis of legitimacy,” an expression of monstrous concern, is an outdated arsenal of words that Western media and politicians habitually juggle with. Interestingly, the United States considers the implementation of the deal to be plausible, Iran has so far managed to wriggle out, since it is now not alone on the battlefield with the United States, but behind a powerful Chinese back, and this means that Tehran is trading with both Beijing and Washington. It's all about the price.
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.