To enjoy traveling while preventing the spread of infection... University of Tsukuba simulates

To enjoy the trip while preventing the spread of infection... University of Tsukuba simulates July 21 at 18:24

From 22nd, "Go To Travel" will start for travels other than Tokyo. A group of the University of Tsukuba conducted a simulation using AI = artificial intelligence to find out how to enjoy traveling while preventing the spread of the new coronavirus, and the result is that the key is to chase rich contacts. became.

This simulation was conducted by a group of Professor Setsuya Kurahashi of the University of Tsukuba. In the simulation, we assumed that the city was a fictitious one based on an actual tourist spot, and considering the current nationwide infection situation, we assumed that there was originally only one infected person in this city.

In addition, we will calculate whether there is a change in the number of seriously ill patients admitted to hospitals in this town, when there are no tourists at all and when there is one infected person every week among those who accept tourists. did.

As a result, the number of seriously ill patients increased by 1.67 times even if they took in tourists and implemented thorough measures to reduce contact, such as wearing masks and installing transparent curtains at hotels and tourist facilities.

However, in addition to these measures, if a contact confirmation application is used to find a person who has a deep contact with an infected person with a probability of 80% and can be tested, the number of severely ill patients will increase by 1.27 times. It means that

If more thorough follow-up of dense contacts is possible, the number of severely ill patients will be reduced further, Professor Kurahashi said, "We found that the follow-up of dense contacts is the key to lowering risk. App and effective measures It is important to combine them thoroughly.”

Simulation details

The simulation was conducted using a model of an actual tourist spot, assuming a fictional city with hotels, tourist facilities, and commercial facilities.

In the simulation, as a general countermeasure against the new coronavirus, avoiding so-called "3 density", wearing a mask, and installing transparent curtains in hotels and commercial facilities We assume that you can save up to 75%.

Also, in consideration of the infection situation in the whole country, we decided that there is originally one infected person in this town.

For the extent to which the new virus spreads the infection and the proportion of people who become severe, refer to the data found in the previous studies and evaluate the impact by the difference in the number of seriously ill patients admitted to hospitals in this town. did.

In the simulation, we compared the difference between the case where the number of infected tourists was one weekly and the case where no tourists were accepted.

As a result, the number of severely ill patients, without taking any measures against tourists, increased by 2.12 times compared to the case of not accepting tourists.

Even if we reduced the contact between people by 75% by general measures, it was only 1.67 times lower.

On the other hand, if, in addition to these measures, there is a 50% chance of finding people who have had heavy contact with the infected person and have them undergo an examination, the number of severely ill patients has dropped to 1.33 times.

Furthermore, if there is an 80% chance of tracking dense contacts, the result is a reduction of 1.27 times.

According to the group, it is thought that the use of a contact confirmation app is effective for tracking rich contacts.

If the contact confirmation application is used, it will be possible to find infected persons from among rich contact persons, and to trace those concentrated contact persons and take measures such as inspection, so in that case we did not accept travelers. It means that the result is that it is down to 1.06 times, which is almost the same as the case.

Expert "Check effect by simulation"

“The result of the simulation showed that the measures taken by the public health centers and local governments to find out the concentrated contacts are great. The countermeasures are as soon as possible. It is important to find a person and it is a great advantage if you can grasp instantly by using a contact confirmation application etc. Although it is difficult for personnel to perform PCR test for all people in a tourist area, you can quickly find a thick contact person It is thought that the same effect can be obtained by performing PCR test in this way. In the future, it will be important to confirm the effect by such a simulation in order to achieve both economy and infection prevention.”