Why Santanen has changed 10:31 on July 16th

It
was a shocking alternation that overturned the "common sense" of such an election that "the current job aiming for the second term is strong" .
After relocating from a private commentator to the Kagoshima prefectural governor's election held on the 12th of this month, Mitsunori Sono was given the spotlight as Kagoshima's first privately-owned governor. .. In the last election, Santanen repeatedly appealed for the phrase “Change!”. Above all, what changed in the last four years was the stance of Santanen himself.
What happened behind the prefectural government's top change play? I followed the election of the governor who was extremely confused.
(Kazumasa Oda)

A record of 7 people

"Because the coronavirus is in a difficult situation, the idea of ​​the private sector is important."

Notification date for the election of the governor of Kagoshima. The pride of Kagoshima's first private governor was in the first voice of Santanen.
Seven candidates, the most in history, have run for this year's election.

In addition to Santanen, there were former governor Yuichiro Ito, who lost to Santanen four years ago, and former Kyushu Bureau of Economy, Trade and Industry director Koichi Shioda.
Generally, it is said that in the election, as the number of candidates increases, the number of criticism votes for the current position becomes more dispersed, and the current position becomes more advantageous. Both bureaucrats Ito and Shiota sought unification before the announcement, but the talks ended in failure.

Furthermore, while Santanen has been endorsing the LDP and Komeito's recommendations, the opposition parties have failed to mobilize their forces, with the Constitutional Democratic Party Kenren recommending Ito and the Communist Party recommending another candidate.
In the Kagoshima prefectural governor election, the current job aiming for the second term has never been defeated, and in addition candidates are scattered. I think that many people saw Santanen as an advantage when interviewing the situation in advance.

"Anti-nuclear power plant" also helps with opposition party support

I would like to look back on the previous governor election when Santanen won the first election.
LDP and Komeito support Ito, who was aiming for the 4th election. On the other hand, Santanen was a completely opposite composition, with the support of the Democratic Party (at that time) and the Social Democratic Party.
At the time, Ito seemed solidly supported by a thick conservative ground, but he was exposed to headwinds due to criticism of multiple selections and remarks that could be regarded as a disdain for women.

Santanen repeated the phrase "Change from his current position" on TV Asahi, selling his high profile and freshness, who served as a political reporter and a commentator for "News Station" (at that time). Then, it was launched as an axis of confrontation with Ito, but it was a "denuclearization".

In Satsuma Kawauchi City in the northern part of Kagoshima Prefecture, there is the Kawauchi Nuclear Power Plant of Kyushu Electric Power. At that time, five years after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, it was the only facility that continued to operate while nuclear power plants across the country were shut down.
In April, just three months before the election of the governor, a situation occurred that would shake the nuclear power plant. It was the Kumamoto earthquake that observed a maximum seismic intensity of 7. Some citizens of the prefecture were worried about the safety of the Kawauchi nuclear power plant about 40 km from the border with Kumamoto.

Initially, the executive committee members of the anti-nuclear power group announced their intention to run with the support of the Communist Party, but immediately after the announcement, they agreed to a policy agreement with Santan-en and withdrew the candidate. The agreement document also included the phrase "direction to decommission the nuclear power plant."

Looking at the NHK exit survey at the previous governor election, 58% were "opposed" to continuing the operation of Kawauchi Nuclear Power Plant, exceeding 42% of "agree".

Santanen won the election for the first time due to the effect of unifying the opposition party candidates and public opinion of anti-nuclear power. It was the birth of the first private-sector governor in Kagoshima prefecture, where "bureaucrats" from the civil servants, such as the central government, continued.

"Extraordinary" over nuclear power plant

The day of the first office visit in Santanen. At the inaugural press conference, a series of questions related to nuclear power plants.

When the reporter described the "nuclear nuclear society", Santanen stopped the reporter's questions and sought correction of the expression.
"It's not a society that doesn't have nuclear power plants, but a society that doesn't rely on nuclear power plants."

After that, the stance of Santanen surrounding the nuclear power plant gradually changed.

The expert committee that was set up to discuss the safety of Kawauchi Nuclear Power Plant, such as the impact of the Kumamoto Earthquake, was initially planning to consider including the decommissioning, but in the end, the pros and cons of the nuclear power plant itself were not discussed. .. Finally, the expert committee submitted a statement of opinion that "the Kumamoto earthquake had no effect".

In response, Santanen announced in February 2017, half a year after assuming office, that it would allow the Kawauchi Nuclear Power Plant to continue operating.

Santanen himself claims that his thoughts are consistent, but in an interview conducted by NHK two years ago, the Liberal Democratic Party presidency (at that time) said with a smile.
"Of course I think the governor has changed. At the time of the start, I was (attitude) different from us."

Behind the scenes of the Liberal Democratic “Recommendation”

Last December, Santanen, who was elected with the support of the opposition, turned around last December and submitted a request for recommendation to the LDP. After being elected, Santanen, which was estranged from the opposition powers due to actions that were perceived as “changes” in nuclear power policy, was close to the LDP, the largest parliamentary group.

The LDP prefectural assembly, which had 38 members, first discussed the handling of the nomination request, but in the last time, many members were cautious about recommending the opposing Santanen. Requests for recommendation were submitted by Ito and Shioda, but they lacked a deciding factor and were unable to collect opinions.

However, at the general assembly of the prefectural assembly on February 28, some veteran prefectural assembly suggested that it should be decided on the spot. It is considered that the remaining four months have passed since the election, and that consideration has been given to the fact that some LDP support groups have been calling for an early attitude decision.

There was some disagreement with the proposal, but it was decided that the executive department would be left to act as soon as possible, and the direction for the recommendation of Santanen was fixed. It was a decisive drama immediately below a sudden turn, in which several people who attended testified that they were "sudden" or "forced."

In response to this, the treatment was transferred to the LDP prefectural government, but Hiroshi Moriyama, a powerful person who is also the chairman of the prefectural government and also serves as the chairman of the country, withdrew the judgment that "the candidates should be judged after they are available".

Behind this was the fact that the mayor of Kagoshima city, Hiroyuki Mori, was selected. If Mori has abundant administrative experience in the 16th year of the 4th term and is said to have "low enemies," it can be put together as a party. The surroundings recall that there was such a thought.

However, in April, Mori announced that he would not run for governor election. Two days later, the LDP prefectural government decided to recommend Santanen.
Moriyama emphasized “unanimously” when making a recommendation, but some people in the prefectural assembly were disappointed in the support of Santanen, and there was a tendency to openly support Ito. It was going up.

Headwind

Following the Liberal Democratic Party, Santanen has also been endorsed by the Komeito. It seemed that he was steadily preparing for the re-election, but he showed a stumbling block from the start.

Opening of office on May 9 in the midst of an emergency declaration by the new coronavirus. Amidst calls for refraining from unnecessary and urgent movements across prefectures, Moriyama and House of Councilors Tetsuro Nomura from Tokyo participated.

However, Mr. Santanen himself was strongly criticized only by calling through the press conference and the website that he would refrain from coming to Kagoshima across the prefectural border. Santanen explained that "I did not give any information and came at the discretion of the Diet member," and explained that "I was not careful enough."

Still other behavior is controversial. Prior to the announcement, the heads of several local governments testified that they received a direct phone call from Santanen and were asked to cooperate in the election. Some people testified that they were asked to cooperate with the prefecture's public works project.

It was pointed out that it violated the pre-exercise prohibited by the Public Offices Election Law and the use of the status of civil servants. I apologize."

Santanen is absent from all debates of candidates for candidacy planned by the local private broadcasters and youth chambers, giving priority to measures against the new coronavirus. The attitude of Santanen was also criticized by the prefectural assembly of the ruling and opposition parties, saying that it was “running out of discussion”.

Election campaign constraints and LDP impatience

In July, a cluster of new-type coronaviruses and damage from heavy rains occurred one after another in Kagoshima, and Santanen could hardly tackle the election campaign.

On the day before the vote, even in the final appeal at the Astronomical Museum, the largest downtown area in the prefecture, a panel with an enlarged photograph of Santanen was put up in the election car without the person himself, and the voice of Santanen recorded was recorded. It was only. Santanen aimed to increase exposure by delivering message videos every day, but the number of video playbacks was sluggish and its effect was limited.

During the election period, I heard the impression of Santanen in Kagoshima City, saying that
“I used the nuclear power plant problem to win the election” (40s male)
“I am not an anti-nuclear power plant but I promise as a politician to the wastepaper bad "(70s man)
just ran away and would be" not good of convenience "(70's female)
, etc., it has been heard many voices to the political attitude problem.

After the middle of the election campaign, and after the news polls reported by media companies that the situation was "close", the LDP's sense of crisis gradually increased. There was a strong feeling that it would not be tolerable to continue the "sequel loss" following the loss of Ito's support last time, and also to strengthen the organization's solidarity toward the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the general election.

On July 3, at the LDP prefectural elections meeting, Moriyama tightened the prefectural assembly. “Isn't this governor's election a difficult battle to predict? With the heavy fact that the members of the prefectural assembly unanimously recommended, we will return to the local area and secure our region. I want you to do that."
To be more careful, I also added this. "Because the elections come out with good results, it's important to draw conclusions that are not embarrassing."
Moriyama gathered a prefectural assembly at the prefectural office in Kagoshima City four days later and appealed for further support.

From the party headquarters, Shimomura Election Measures Chairman,

The chairman of the Amari tax system rushed to support.

Three days before the vote, Secretary-General Nikai and Minister for Disaster Prevention Takeda entered Kagoshima for the purpose of observing the heavy rain damage. After the inspection, the second floor gathered about 70 people including local construction companies and held a discussion meeting. It was said that there was no talk of the election at the discussion meeting, but speculation about whether it would be a lever for re-election of Santanen was furious.

“To Kagoshima that is neither before nor now”

Amidst sluggish growth in Santanen, it was a new employee, Shiota, who was the former director of the Kyushu Bureau of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Shiota is 54 years old from Kagoshima City. He is the youngest candidate in this election. After graduating from the University of Tokyo, he spent most of his career at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

There was an impressive phrase in the first voice of the announcement day.
"It is neither the old Kagoshima in the

past , nor the bad Kagoshima in the present, the next new Kagoshima is made." It was clear that the remark was made with the former Governor Ito and the current Governor Santanen in mind.
Shiota, who is advocating "prefectural government reform", appeals his youth and the track record of revitalizing the region and implementing measures for SMEs at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. With the lack of support from political parties and organizations, it sought to expand its support grassroots.

At the end of the election campaign, we focused on the urban areas centered around Kagoshima City and focused on capturing the independent party.

When I went the exit poll of the early vote in the NHK Kagoshima City, I was asked why the people who felt they were voted for Shiota,

"I want you to Kagoshima has changed in the young governor" (70 Young Men)
"new young Good people (70's female)
"Need new wind" (50's male)
"Unknown, but I have no choice but to call" (50's male)
Shiota's "youth" and "newness" Was asked a lot.

Causes of defeat in exit surveys

As a result of the voting, Shiota won over 220,000 votes and was elected for the first time. Santanen finished next place with a difference of nearly 27,000 votes.

Let's analyze the cause of Santanen's defeat based on the exit survey conducted by NHK at 32 locations on the day of the vote.

If you look at the votes of the LDP supporters, you can see that Santanen is close to 40%, Shiota is over 30%, and Ito is about 20%, and the votes are largely broken. It can be said that Santanen could not put together the supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party who received the recommendation, and the concern of conservative division became a reality.

Looking at the evaluation of Santanen prefectural government, 55% were "evaluated" and 45% were "not evaluated". From last year to this year, NHK has heard the evaluation of prefectural administration or metropolitan administration in 11 governor elections in which the incumbent candidacy, but "evaluate" is 90% for 2 people, 80% for 4 people, There were 4 people in the 70% range, and only 1 Santanen was in the 50% range.

The reason for not evaluating it is 30%, which is "because we do not keep our promises", 24% when we "do not have the ability to execute", 19% when we do not have expectations for policies, and "we cannot trust our personality" Was 16%. It seems that the reason why Santanen's response to the Kawauchi nuclear power plant was also influential was that "because we did not keep our promises" topped the list.

Also, of the people who voted for Santanen last time, only 40% answered that they voted for Santanen again this time, indicating that supporters have gone away in the past four years. ..

On the other hand, when looking at the reasons for Shioda's victory, "Kagoshima City," "independents," and "economy" emerge as keywords. Shiota surpassed Santanen in 12 out of 43 municipalities, but overwhelmed Santanen in Kagoshima and surrounding areas, such as Kagoshima, Kirishima, Aira and Hioki.

In particular, the decisive factor in winning was the fact that Santanen had a large difference of about 44,000 votes in Kagoshima City, which is a large-voted field. Actually, it was the fact that Katoshima City made a big difference of nearly 70,000 votes to Ito in the previous decision of Santanen. Kagoshima City is swaying greatly due to the "wind" of the time. The trend greatly influences the result of the governor election. In this exit survey, when looking at the voting destination of the independent party, Shiota was about 40%, which was almost double that of Santanen. It seems that the majority of non-partisan groups, such as Kagoshima City, who led Santanen to victory last year flowed to Shiota.

In addition, when asked about the policies expected of the new governor, 29% of ▼“improvement of medical care and welfare” and ▼28% of “industrial support/employment measures” were the other.

Of these, nearly half of those who cited "industrial support and employment measures" answered that they voted for salt fields, and it can be said that many of the people who attach importance to the economy are expecting salt fields from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

"Change!"

"I'm all responsible. I'm really sorry."

After 11:00 pm when news media reported on Shioda's conviction, Santanen on the stage made a clear statement of defeat. I couldn't read the facial expression because it was covered with a white mask except the eyes.

After being interviewed by representatives of the news media, he did not answer any questions from reporters and got into the car.

Moriyama, who visited the election office, said, "I had to spend time on measures against corona and measures against heavy rain," while blaming Santanen on the fact that he could not fully work on the election campaign by giving priority to public affairs. I think we had to do well as a prefectural assembly, but it's a pity that we couldn't do it in part," he said.

Kagoshima prefectural government is facing many challenges such as measures against new corona clusters, recovery from heavy rain damage, and recovery of the exhausted economy. In addition, two Kawauchi nuclear power plants will have an operating deadline of 40 years in principle after 4 and 5 years, but if the Nuclear Regulation Authority approves, the operation can be extended for up to 20 years, and the way the prefecture faces again. You will be asked.

The Santanen prefectural government will come to an end with many of these challenges remaining.
Four years ago, Santanen played the "Change!"

What do you think of the "Change!" Santanen is about to leave the governor's seat without telling much.

(Honorific title omitted in the text)

Kagoshima station reporter
Kazumasa Oda
Joined in 2014 Kanazawa station. In charge of Komatsu branch and prefectural government. Kagoshima station from 18 years. After in charge of the Kagoshima Airport Branch, he is now the Kagoshima prefectural government cap.