The Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client (Xue Yufei) epidemic situation affected the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses. On the 2nd, the semiannual series of reports on the property market in 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the "report") released by Shell Research Institute showed that the number of new housing transactions in 66 cities in the first half of the year fell by 16% year-on-year. The number of transactions fell by 25.9% year-on-year. In terms of second-hand housing, in the first half of the year, the transaction volume of the key 18 cities in the chain was the lowest in the past three years, with a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year.
However, the report pointed out that with the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation, the turnover of new and second-hand housing in the second quarter has been restored. The transaction volume of second-hand housing in the key 18 cities of Lianjia has basically returned to the level of the same period last year, and prices have generally rebounded as the market repairs. Analysts at the Shell Research Institute believe that the real estate market has demonstrated strong resilience under the double test of the epidemic situation and property market regulation. This resilience is related to factors such as the loosening of financial policies, the rising risk aversion of residents' assets, and the increase in talent introduction policies.
First-tier cities saw the largest decline in new house transaction volume but Nanjing rose against the trend
According to the report, in the first half of 2020, the total number of transactions in the 66-city new home market monitored by the Shell Research Institute fell by 16.0% year-on-year, and the transaction area fell by 14.0% year-on-year. After the epidemic situation stabilized, the turnover of the new home market in the second quarter quickly recovered, but the number of transactions and area fell by 5% and 4% respectively in the second quarter of 2019.
In terms of city categories, in the first half of this year, first-tier cities saw the largest decline in transaction volume and transaction area. The number of transaction sets fell by 25.9% year-on-year and the transaction area fell by 25.0%. ; The number of transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities fell by 10.8% year-on-year, and the transaction area fell by 8.0%.
However, the report pointed out that although the new housing market in first-tier and second-tier cities was greatly affected by the epidemic, the recovery rate was also faster. In the second quarter of stable epidemic, the transaction volume narrowed by 15-16 percentage points month-on-month, and that in third- and fourth-tier cities narrowed 12-13 percentage points.
In terms of different regions, the transaction status of different cities and different urban agglomerations is different. In the first-tier cities, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing's first-half housing transaction area fell by 27%, 24%, and 33% year-on-year, respectively, while Shenzhen fell by only 5% year-on-year, which confirms the fiery market in Shenzhen.
Among the second-tier cities with the largest total transaction area, five cities, Chengdu, Suzhou, Nanjing, Wenzhou, and Hangzhou, did not decline but rose, and the transaction area continued to increase. Among them, cities in the Yangtze River Delta region performed well, and the transaction area in Nanjing in the first half of the year increased by 24.4% year-on-year. Pan Hao, a senior analyst at Shell Research Institute, said that in the new housing market, cities in the Yangtze River Delta region have shown a more positive willingness to rise.
Second-hand housing transaction volume hits a three-year low, prices have stopped falling and rising
According to the report, affected by the epidemic, the first 18 cities in the chain had the lowest volume in the past three years, down 8.4% from the same period last year, but a slight increase of 4.2% from the second half of last year. The overall impact of the epidemic on the second-hand housing market in key cities was not significant .
Judging from the monthly transaction trend, the transaction in the second-hand housing market began to recover significantly from March. The transaction volume of second-hand housing in Lianjia's key 18 cities increased by 41.8% compared with the total transaction volume in January-February, and the chain growth rates in April and May reached 39% and 19 respectively. %.
"Although the transaction in June fell somewhat compared with May, it still increased by 21% year-on-year. The impact of the epidemic on the market is gradually fading." The report judges that the total amount of second-hand housing transactions has basically returned to the level of the same period last year. Out of the "south strong north weak" characteristics.
From a regional perspective, the Shenzhen-Shenzhen and Shanghai-Shanghai urban agglomerations have recovered strongly. In the first half of the year, the total turnover of key cities in the Shenzhen-Shenzhen urban agglomeration increased by 20% year-on-year, mainly due to the strong recovery of the Guangzhou market. The turnover of second-hand housing in the Shanghai-Shanghai metropolitan area has basically returned to the level of the same period last year (a slight decrease of 1.6% year-on-year).
The recovery of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei cities is slow, and the growth rate of transactions in Beijing, Langfang and Tianjin from March to April is slower than that of other cities. The market recovery accelerated only after the city policy factors in the urban circle from May to June. In the first half of the year, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in the Beijing metropolitan area fell by 14.6% year-on-year.
According to the report, in terms of prices, the average price of second-hand housing in key cities in the first quarter of 2020 generally fell from the fourth quarter of last year, and the average price in the second quarter rebounded generally with the market repair.
The data shows that compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, 15 of the key 18 cities in the second quarter of 2020 have increased prices and 3 cities have fallen. The average price of second-hand housing in Beijing and Shanghai rose by 3.5% or more, which was the highest. The city with the largest decline in house prices was Wuhan, with a cumulative decrease of 3.5%.
Compared with the same period last year, there were 11 cities with price increases in the 18 major cities in the second quarter, and 7 cities with declines. Among them, the cities with the largest house price increase are Nanjing and Hangzhou, and the cities with the largest house price decline are Langfang, Tianjin, Qingdao and Jinan.
Judging from the rhythm of rising house prices, house prices in first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities with good fundamentals are the first to start rising. The Shell Research Institute's house price index shows that cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Dalian, Hangzhou, and Nanjing stopped falling and rising the earliest in the first half of the year, while average prices in Qingdao, Tianjin, and other cities remained stable or continued to fall in the first half.
Analysis: The resilience of the property market is mainly stable in the second half of the year
Although the real estate market was affected in the first half of the year, the market recovered rapidly as the epidemic eased. Xu Xiaole, Chief Market Analyst of Shell Research Institute, said that the new crown epidemic began to spread at the beginning of the year, and the market is generally worried that the epidemic will cause a greater impact on the market. However, half a year later, the market showed strong resilience with a beautiful V-shaped curve. "Agitation" also seems to indicate that a new cycle is starting.
Xu Xiaole explained that although there is no direct stimulus to real estate, a more flexible and appropriate monetary policy has a greater spillover effect on market expectations. After the mortgage interest rate mechanism changed from the fixed interest rate floating mechanism to the LPR floating mechanism, the correlation between the mortgage interest rate and the market interest rate strengthened. With the reduction of LPR, the interest rate for home purchase loans has declined, and the bank home loan cycle has been greatly shortened.
Since the beginning of this year, the PPI index, which represents production demand, has continued to fall, while the CPI index, which represents the price level, is at a high level, especially food prices that are closely related to people's lives. Under the pressure of economic growth, residents are required to further increase the value of asset preservation and appreciation, and assets in core cities and core areas have become better asset hedging tools.
In addition, the deepening of the reform of the household registration system in the first half of the year, superimposed on further efforts to introduce talents and provide subsidies for home purchase and settlement, so that some consumers can avoid regulatory restrictions to enter the market.
Regarding the trend in the second half of the year, the report believes that the market warming since the second quarter is at best only a few cities' structural and staged prices. Most cities are only recovering from the normal state, and it is difficult to see a global and continuous rise in housing prices. In the second half of the year, second-hand housing will show three major trends, that is, core cities are stronger than non-core cities, core areas are stronger than suburbs, and improved products are stronger than rigid demand products.
As far as the new housing market is concerned, the performance of key cities in the second quarter is close to or has reached the level of the same period in 2019. The market repair process is basically completed. The backlog of demand in the first quarter has been gradually released. At the same time, as the investment environment gradually stabilizes after the epidemic, the demand The end will also re-allocate funds, and it is expected that the market will not continue to rise sharply in the second half of the year. However, under the downward pressure of the economy, the real estate market as an important consumer market, its total amount will not drop significantly, it is expected that the whole year will stabilize at the level of recent years. (China-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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