China to strengthen offensive to the Senkaku Islands The reason is not only corona, 17:21 on July 1st

As each country is busy responding to the new coronavirus, China is accelerating its advance into the ocean, as if to open the gap.

In the Senkaku Islands of Okinawa Prefecture, a fleet of the China Coast Guard has appeared in the surrounding waters for more than two months without fail for a day.

The Chinese offensive is clearly entering a new phase, but not necessarily because of the corona crisis. Behind it lies a much longer Chinese strategy. Analyze China's activities in the Senkaku Islands and consider Japan's response. (Hisashi Tsuya, commentator)

The strategic importance of the Senkaku Islands

The Senkaku Islands are uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, including Uotsuri Island, Kuba Island, and Taisho Island. The largest Uotsuri Island is about 410km from the main island of Okinawa, and about 170km from Ishigaki Island, in the sea.

The main reason China aims to control this area is that the Senkaku Islands are strategically important, right next to the "First Islands" that we consider to be a defense line. The "First Archipelago Line" is a series of islands from Kyushu to the main island of Okinawa, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

Let's look at the map from the perspective of China, with the continent of China facing down, rather than the familiar angle. The first archipelago line separates the “East China Sea”, which China regards as its own inland sea, and the “Pacific Ocean”, which is like the open sea, and seems to block China from entering the Pacific Ocean.

In order for China to advance to the Pacific Ocean, it must pass somewhere on the First Archipelago line, but all the islands along the Archipelago line are in the hands of Japan, Taiwan, etc. It’s not good.

Therefore, it is considered that China is trying to drive a "wedge" to accelerate the advance of the ocean by controlling the Senkaku Islands, which are located near the route to and from the Pacific Ocean and slightly on the East China Sea side.

China's Offensive Before the Corona Crisis

"Senkaku Islands, historically on international law also is clear that a Japanese territory, currently Japan has effectively dominated the first place territorial rights problem does not exist to be solved"

This is the position of the Japanese government It is.

However, China, which asserts the possession of the Senkaku Islands, constantly ships vessels of the China Coast Guard, which is the Coast Guard of China, in the territorial waters of Japan 12 kilometers from the Senkaku Islands or in the ``connecting water'' of 12 kilometers wide adjacent to it. For many years, the Japanese Coast Guard patrol boats stayed on the scene 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, and guarded.

As of July 1st, when this manuscript was being written, it has been confirmed that the water has entered the connected water area for 79 consecutive days from the middle of April. It has already far exceeded the longest record of 64 consecutive days from April to June last year.

Also in May, there was an unusual behavior in which the Chinese Coast Guard vessel followed a Japanese fishing vessel for three days.

Looking at these, China seems to be clearly gearing up its activities, and seems to be intensifying its offensive in the wake of Corona. Certainly, it is a fact that Japan and the United States intensified the offensive, aiming at the timing when Japan and the United States were chased for corona correspondence.

However, there is also a view that China's offensive was strengthened with or without the corona crisis. Because China's offensive was intensified before the new Corona spread.

What do you mean.

Already last year before the problem of the new Corona occurred, executives of the Japan Coast Guard, who have continued to respond to Chinese vessels, told me, "China's activities are in a different phase than before." I was talking to each other.

What is the new phase of Chinese action?

The "new phase" that had already begun last year.

The remarkable change is the "larger size" of the ship that appears on the scene. In contrast to the Japan Coast Guard patrol boat, which continues to stay in the waters no matter how rough the sea is, Chinese ships with poor maneuverability have disappeared from the scene when the weather worsened.

However, the larger boat became stronger against barges and did not disperse even if the sea was rough.

As a result, last year's number of confirmation days was 282, the highest number ever.

The Japan Coast Guard calls ships with a gross tonnage of 1000 tons or more "large ships". Most of the patrol boats placed in the Ishigaki Coast Guard to respond to the Senkaku Islands are of the 1,000-ton class, but China is activating one of the 3,000- to 5,000-ton ships, which far exceeds this, and Is the world's largest 10,000-ton class. There are even ships equipped with large-scale machine guns comparable to warships.

In addition, the operational capacity of the ship has improved as the size of the ship has increased, and unprecedented "distributed behavior" of ships has also been confirmed.

Previously, four ships were moving together, but since the latter half of last year, they have been dispersed into two ships, and this tendency has become more prominent in this year.

For the Japan Coast Guard, if the fleet to be monitored is dispersed, it is naturally necessary to see more than one at the same time, and more patrol boats will be required. The China Coast Guard has acquired the higher command and communication capabilities that are essential for decentralized actions, and each has a “commanded and complex action”.

The sea area is vast even if it is called the Senkaku Islands.

On June 23, two decentralized ships were confirmed at the same time on Uotsuri Island and Taisho Island 110km away, and the Japan Coast Guard was forced to respond.

What's happening in the Senkaku Islands

What kind of action is the changing China Sea Police Department actually taking?

This graph shows the monthly trend that the China Coast Guard appeared in the connected waters near the Senkaku Islands since January last year.

June last year, is coming to Japan once agreement as a state guest of Xi Jinping Jintao, also in the Japan-China relations had towards the improvement, almost every day, appear in this area, action to be inconsistent with the attitude of the diplomatic is repeated ..

And, while the spread of the new corona infection in China became serious and Wuhan was blocked in the city, the offensive became stronger rather than weakened.

Taking a closer look at the movements of Chinese ships over the past few years, we have seen that until now, there was a “patterned movement” of entering the waters once every 10 days, sailing calmly for several hours, and then going out. I've been repeating it.

However, on May 8th, suddenly, he took an unusual action that deviated from this pattern.

The Chinese Coast Guard ship that had invaded the territorial waters of Japan began to pursue the Japanese fishing boats that were fishing there, and tried to approach it further.

For this reason, the Coast Guard patrol boat came in between and stopped the approach. However, the Chinese side looks at the fishing boat in a long way, and when the fishing boat enters the connecting water area, it enters the connecting water area, and when the fishing boat enters the territorial water and starts fishing, it invades the territorial water. Continued sailing and repeated invasion of waters for three days.

Where was the intention? In a press conference on May 11, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Zhongqing said, "The Japanese fishing boats had been operating illegally in China's territorial waters, so they called for them to leave the waters."

The statement alleges that "it has cracked down in its own sea", that is, "it exercised sovereignty."

Since the Japan Coast Guard patrol boat came in between to prevent the approach, no "enforcement" was actually conducted.

However, the Chinese government announced it as if it had been cracked down and exercised sovereignty. It might have aimed to advertise this area as if it were a sea controlled by China.

China aims to make the Senkaku Islands our own in the future by accumulating the established fact that Chinese official vessels are there over a long period of time and repeatedly transmitting information that is convenient for them. There is.

Long-term strategy for a “marine power”

What is the reason behind the intensified offensive as the capabilities of the China Coast Guard have improved? The key to that is the structural reform of the China Coast Guard. The China Coast Guard belonged to a government agency called the "National Maritime Bureau" under the State Council, but Otoshito (2018), the "People's Armed Police" under the "Central Military Commission", the center of the Chinese Communist Party. Was relocated under the command of.

"Central Military Commission" is, served as the top is Mr. Xi Jinping, it is the highest decision-making body of the military department to teach even the People's Liberation Army. By entering the chain of command, it seems that the budget and personnel were ample, and the number of ships has been greatly increased.

Furthermore, on June 20, the amendment of the "People's Armed Police Law" was enacted, and the China Maritime Police Department, in the event of an emergency, from the Central Military Commission or the PLA's regional units, "Sectors". It was restricted to receive the command.

Although the China Sea Police Department with a white hull ostensibly assumes the appearance of a law enforcement agency such as the Japan Coast Guard, its principle of action has a "paramilitary" character prescribed by a military point of view. It would be better to see that it could become.

The activities in the Senkaku Islands may now be carried out under the guidance of the Central Military Commission based on the national "long-term strategy."

Chinese expert Michael Pilsbury, who has been deeply involved in the policies of the United States' successive administrations on China, aims to surpass the United States in all aspects of military affairs, economics, and politics by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the country. , He points out that he has the hegemony of the world.

When combined with this long-term strategic goal, China puts the Nansha Islands and the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea under the control of its own, and the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea as an important step toward that goal. Isn't it going to become?

And by putting a non-military "China Sea Police" at the forefront of the Senkaku Islands, it seems that they are trying to gradually create an advantageous situation while avoiding a military clash with the United States for the time being.

From such a long-term perspective, it must be seen that China's activities on the Senkaku Islands will continue regardless of the situation of the new corona and Japan-China relations.

How Japan responds

So how should Japan respond?

First of all, since China is currently increasing its offensive, it is essential to strengthen the system of the Japan Coast Guard so that it can respond to it.

It is significant that the Japan Coast Guard, a non-military law enforcement agency, stands in front and keeps responding in order to avoid the worst case of a military conflict.

The report ``Dragon against the Sun,'' released last year by Toshi Yoshihara, a senior fellow of the CSBA Strategic Budget Evaluation Center, who has a great influence on US defense strategy, warned that Chinese naval power has surpassed Japan. doing.

In this, a shocking scenario in which China captures the Senkaku Islands by battle is introduced.

This scenario includes assumptions that are not always realistic, but the beginning of the war is the bombardment of the Japanese Patrol Boat against the China Sea Police.

This shows again how important it is that the Japan Coast Guard never takes provocation by the Chinese side, and that it is resolute and calm.

Although the Japan Coast Guard is strengthening its system...

In response to the rapidly increasing China Coast Guard, the Japan Coast Guard has recently been constructing large patrol vessels at a rapid pace, and in February this year, Japan's largest 6500-ton class Reimei. And two large 6,000-ton class "Shunko" patrol boats were newly deployed in the Kagoshima Coast Guard.

Together with the 6500-ton class "Shikishima" that had already been deployed, it became a system of three patrol vessels of 6000-ton class or more in Kagoshima.

The Japan Coast Guard plans to strengthen Kagoshima as a new base for Senkaku Islands security, in addition to Ishigaki Island, which has had a dedicated Senkaku Islands team.

However, the Japan Coast Guard is in the 6th largest exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the world, which is much wider than China, and while carrying out various tasks such as salvage, the large vessels it owns have become huge. The reality is that there is only half of that.

What you need is a strategic response

There is an urgent need to strengthen the on-site response capabilities of the Japan Coast Guard, but that alone does not solve the problem.

What is asked is "diplomatic power" that puts neighboring countries and the international community on the side, and "information transmission power" that is based on strategic thinking, against those who try to change the current situation by ignoring international law against the backdrop of power. right.

China is using various means, as seen in recent "mask diplomacy," to mix hard and soft to expand its influence.

In addition, there is a large-scale global advertising campaign around the Senkaku Islands. Japan should lag behind China in these areas, although it is necessary to avoid situations where China's unilateral information is disseminated to the world and countries under the influence of China confirm it. This is an issue that must be addressed as soon as possible.

In response to the Chinese offensive, the Japanese government has a "policy" of aiming for a diplomatic solution while the Japan Coast Guard is holding up on the scene, but no long-term strategy for Japan as a whole can be seen.

How will Japan face its neighbors, who continue to increase their influence in the world and threaten their sovereignty with their unique worldview and long-term strategy? It is necessary to build a new grand strategy to answer this difficult problem.

Commentator
Takashi Tsuya　

Specialist also serves as a policy adviser for the Japan Coast Guard,
covering international security China for many years.