[Commentary] On the last day of June 2019, US President Trump met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Panmunjom. Both the DPRK and the US gave positive comments on the meeting. However, over the past year, gaming, shouting, disconnecting, blowing up the "window" of dialogue, and prolonging sanctions... A series of actions by all parties has gradually returned the DPRK-ROK and DPRK-US relations back to the confrontation mode.
[Explanation] Regarding the changes in DPRK-US relations over the past year, some experts believe that the hostile attitude of the US political elite toward North Korea is difficult to change, and the relationship between the two parties has not improved, and may even deteriorate.
[Same period] Professor Li Haidong, Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University
Trump's initiative and innovation in his policy toward the DPRK have proved that he can't resist the hostility of the mainstream US political elite against North Korea. They have internally denounced Trump's proactive policy on North Korea.
[Same period] Professor Wang Sheng, Department of International Politics, School of Administration, Jilin University
From the perspective of the United States as a whole, no matter whether it is decision-makers, strategic circles, or academic circles, it generally disagrees with negotiating with North Korea, so the basis of the US-DPRK negotiations is relatively weak. North Korea has certain expectations for the Trump administration, but after the (new crown) outbreak, after the first half of this year, I feel that North Korea is becoming more and more disappointed. action. So for now, not only is there no good improvement in US-DPRK relations, but if the US has not yet taken some measures and does not engage in contact negotiations with North Korea, (DPRK-US relations) may still have a possibility of becoming bad.
[Commentary] On June 16, 2020, with a loud noise, the DPRK-ROK liaison office was blown up by the DPRK, and DPRK-ROK relations are facing a trend of deterioration. North Korea's move is "beating" South Korea on the surface, and it is actually putting pressure on the United States. Its real purpose is not to provoke conflict on the peninsula, but to negotiate with the United States. The United States still regards North Korea as a major threat and announced that it will extend the state of emergency of the DPRK-related countries from 2008 to the present for one year, which means that the corresponding US sanctions on the DPRK will be extended.
[Explanation] In this regard, experts believe that maintaining sanctions by the United States is forcing North Korea to feel the crisis and forcing North Korea to make compromises. Moreover, the relaxation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula is not conducive to the support of the allies for the US military presence in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.
[Same period] Professor Wang Sheng, Department of International Politics, School of Administration, Jilin University
(North Korea-US) The main differences are that the short-term strategic goals of the United States and the long-term strategic demands of North Korea are disproportionate (unbalanced). North Korea’s strategic appeal mainly addresses security issues, but this appeal is completely asymmetrical with the US’s temporary appeal to North Korea. The United States only hopes that North Korea will stop conducting nuclear tests and intercontinental missile tests, and it will be satisfied. The United States does not want to sign an interim peace agreement because it involves some US military garrison issues in South Korea, including strategic objectives in Northeast Asia.
[Commentary] A year ago, Trump issued an invitation to "welcome Kim Jong Un to visit the White House at any time." However, as the relationship between the two parties deteriorates, whether the next "Golden Meeting" will continue, experts generally believe that the opportunity is not great.
[Same period] Professor Li Haidong, Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University
This year is an election year. Trump will consider whether it is worth meeting with Kim Jong-un from the perspective of the election. Because the North Korean leaders are good for South Korea and the United States now, they criticize the high level of tune, coupled with the overall situation in the United States, judging from the overall situation, the probability of two people meeting is very low.
[Same period] Professor Wang Sheng, Department of International Politics, School of Administration, Jilin University
If the Democratic Party comes to power, it basically advocates maintaining a strong and high-pressure deterrence against the DPRK (policy). If Trump is elected, he may follow his approach in 2018 and 2019, but judging from his performance in the past two years, there are also inconsistencies in words and deeds (problems).
Reporter Liu Danyi He Luman
Responsible editor: [Luo Pan]