Can you enter only 20%? Insufficient shelter shortage June 24, 17:50

I went to the shelter, but I can't get in because it's full. This is what happened at Typhoon No. 19 in 2019. If the new coronavirus infection prevention measures were taken, wouldn't there be more space in the shelter? Using open data on a river running through the Tokyo metropolitan area, I looked into it and found something more serious than I had imagined. Will you go to the shelter... (Social Department reporter Shinya Fujishima, Yuichiro Nakamura)

“Full” shelter

The
issue of "Can't enter the shelter" was highlighted in Typhoon No. 19 in October 2019. The water level rose at the Tama River, which flows through the prefectural border between Tokyo and Kanagawa, and evacuation advice was issued to the surrounding areas.

The photo shows the evacuation center in Chofu, Tokyo at that time. The gymnasium was full, and the corridors of the school building, which was opened suddenly, were also full of people. In some cases, the evacuation centers became “full” one after another, and it was necessary to move to another facility.

At present, it is required to keep the distance between people with the new coronavirus countermeasures. Evacuation centers are no exception. What kind of state will it be in? I decided to investigate using open data.

Evacuation shelter

I checked the local governments along the Tama River. First, we checked the regional disaster prevention plans and hazard maps issued by local governments one by one, and picked up the facilities that would serve as shelters.

As a result, there are 23 evacuation centers in the 23 cities and wards along the Tama River, 759 in total. Looking at the location of the shelter, you can see that it is quite close to the river. Is there a risk of flooding?
I was interested, so I tried to put it together with the "expected inundation area" when the Tama River flooded.

Red circles are shelters within the flooded area. There are 189 places in total. Approximately 25% of all shelters.
Indeed, one in every four places is at risk of inundation. It was a surprising result.

The most common were Ota Ward and Kawasaki City in Tokyo. This is because there are many flat lands and a large area is flooded. Furthermore, looking at the depth of inundation... Shimonumabe Elementary School in Nakahara-ku, Kawasaki City is 3.4 meters. The depth of inundation that extends to the second floor of the school building. I asked the person in charge, "Can it really be used as a shelter?"

“I don't want to use inundation facilities if possible, but because of the large inundation area in the city, if these facilities are excluded, the number of facilities that can be used as evacuation centers will be very small... I have to use inundation facilities as well. Is the current situation."

It was said that Ota Ward, etc. had decided in advance the conditions for using facilities such as "2nd floor and above" and "3rd floor and above" for facilities that could be flooded.

Can accommodate half

So how many people will be in this shelter? I decided to make a trial calculation.

First, the “expected capacity” of the evacuation shelter written on the regional disaster prevention plan and hazard map is totaled. If the estimated capacity is not written, it is calculated independently based on the “evacuation area” and “area allocated to each evacuee”. Furthermore, the population in the inundation area is also estimated from the results of the 2015 national census.
The table below summarizes "the estimated number of people in evacuation centers" and "the population in the inundated area".

Based on this table, a trial calculation was made as the "accommodation rate" of how many people living in the inundated area can enter the evacuation shelter. The higher the rate, the more room there is in the shelter.

The "accommodation rate" for the entire Tama River is about 54%. Only about half of the residents have space to enter the shelter.

Looking at each municipality, Fuchu is the lowest at 18%, while Tokyo and Ota Ward and Kawasaki are in the 20% range. It was a nod to the lack of shelters due to Typhoon No. 19 in 2019.

Is antivirus only 20% available?

What happens if we consider "new coronavirus countermeasures"? What I found is a more serious situation.

The Cabinet Office's notification states that "it is desirable to leave as much as 2m between people". So what happens if evacuees are more than 2 meters apart? The space for one evacuee is calculated as 2m x 2m = 4 square meters.

The overall "accommodation rate" has dropped to about 24%.
Fuchu-shi is 7%, and Tokyo/Ota-ku and Kawasaki-shi are only 10%. This means that only 1 in 10 residents can go to the shelter. Furthermore, there is a risk that the evacuation space will run short even in Tachikawa, Tama, and Hamura, which used to be sufficient.

Options for “other than” shelters

I asked Professor Ushiyama Motoyuki of Shizuoka University about the current situation of urban shelter shortages...

“In large cities such as the Tokyo metropolitan area, evacuation centers do not have sufficient capacity. However, “evacuation” means “escape the difficulty” in the first place, and going to evacuation centers is only one option. Not everyone has to go to the shelter.''

Professor Ushiyama says that shelters are just one option. The proposal was to evacuate to places other than shelters. He introduced the following three under the condition of not being in a dangerous place.

1. Home evacuation at home
2. Relatives/acquaintances' homes
3. Accommodations

such as hotels It is said that you should think about these evacuation destinations before a disaster is imminent.

Dr.
Motoyuki Ushiyama "I can't make a calm decision when it's necessary, so it's important to think about where to evacuate even now, when you're calm."

Evacuation in the apartment

In the interview, there are some cases that can be referred to as options other than evacuation shelters. Helping each other in an apartment.

This apartment in Fuchu City along the Tama River. In the worst case, there is a risk of flooding of about 3 m. In fact, during Typhoon No. 19 in 2019, an evacuation advisory was issued and more than 40 households living on the first floor were forced to evacuate.

At this time, there are cases where the residents on the first floor evacuated to the safe rooms of the residents on the upper floors. In addition, a guest room called a "guest room" was temporarily opened to accept residents on the first floor. If safe, move to a higher floor. In urban areas with many condominiums, I felt it was a helpful initiative.

When I talked to Mr. Kenichi Hayashida, the chairman of the self-government, it was said that the condominium is deepening the interaction between residents by holding festivals on a daily basis. It is said that this kind of "neighborhood relationship" was useful in an emergency.

"Urban condominiums are often described as "I don't know who lives next door." That's why we can't cooperate in an emergency. Creating an invisible relationship through events, etc. is a disaster in which everyone cooperates. I think it's the secret to respond."

I want you to think now

When a disaster is imminent or when you are anxious, the general rule is to go to a shelter or shelter without hesitation. However, what I have seen is the reality that even if I go to an evacuation center, I may not be able to enter. I felt that the local government should make an effort to increase the evacuation space by making full use of all places such as private facilities such as companies, school classrooms, and accommodations such as hotels.

On the other hand, we also need to keep in mind the reality that there is not enough space in the shelter. I think it is important to think about "alternatives other than evacuation shelters" before the disaster is imminent and before you have time.

I want you to think now, to protect the lives of yourself and your loved ones.

Social department reporter
Shinya Fujishima He experienced the Great East Japan Earthquake at the Morioka station, which was his first
entry in 2009
. Since 2014, the Social Affairs Department has mainly been reporting disasters.

Social Affairs reporter
Yuichiro Nakamura
Joined the company in 2003
After taking charge of the Osaka Prefectural Police and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, he covered Okinawa battle and US military base issues at the Okinawa Bureau. Currently in charge of the constitution and disasters.