- A map of France with regions where the R0 indicator is greater than 1 is widely distributed on social networks.
- These are not “red zones” like those established during containment, but regions where foci have appeared.
- In France, the situation is very evolving and other indicators than the R0 are to be taken into account, remind specialists at 20 Minutes .
- If epidemiologists, like the health authorities, do not draw any conclusion on a possible resumption of the epidemic, they point out to what point the barrier gestures must continue to be respected.
"When we see how people behaved at the Fête de la Musique, many regions will be going red in a few weeks!" This comment from a Facebook user sums up the fears of some people about a second wave of coronavirus in France after several weeks of deconfinement. An anguish fueled by an infographic that circulates massively on Facebook since Monday, a map of France accompanied by this legend: "Confinement: three regions are on the rise. "
"Occitanie badly crossed with tourists", "It is not surprising when we see the behavior of people, the French have nothing in their heads", "We will have a real point and a real map next Monday , when their damned elections are over, "or" Because of some idiots who think they're smarter! ”, Can we read among the comments published on the social network.
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First, the "red areas" on this map do not show the regions that could be subject to restrictive measures in the context of deconfinement, as suggested by the accompanying legend. The link actually refers to a video according to which “the reproduction rate, or effective R, is greater than 1 in three regions in mainland France: Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (1.02), Normandy (1.14) and Occitania (1.51) ”.
The data contained in this video, the author of which we could not identify - it was posted via the Viously platform and relayed to the address actu-web-video.com - is authentic and was delivered by Santé publique France in the last epidemiological bulletin on the evolution of Covid-19 in France, published Thursday, June 18.
The indicator R0, or "effective R", measures the average number of people infected by a patient. “A value greater than 1 is in favor of an increasing trend in the number of cases. The effective R estimated from these data is an indicator of the dynamics of virus transmission approximately 1 to 2 weeks before, ”recalls Santé Publique France.
"The business can get carried away"
"Calculating with R0 is very complicated, indirect and unstable," points out Catherine Hill, an epidemiologist at 20 Minutes , who rather has an idea of the evolution of the pandemic through clusters. “Normandy is designated on this map because there was the outbreak of Rouen. So yes, the case can get carried away: it is necessary to massively test the population, as has been done in Beijing since around twenty cases per day have been identified, and as we should have done from the start in France… ” For the researcher, this card can therefore be brought "to evolve from one day to another", according to the disappearance or the appearance of new foci.
"The values of R must not be interpreted in isolation, but must be put into perspective with the other epidemiological data available and the detailed analysis of the local situation", also reminds Public Health France.
Pascal Crépey, research professor at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health (EHESP), brings the same nuances to 20 Minutes : "Given that the number of new infections is low, as soon as a cluster of cases is detected ( in a slaughterhouse for example), the number of cases is increasing, but these are the cases of these clusters. This is why the number of reproduction (R) increases in the regions where these aggregates have been detected. It is therefore not necessarily a sign that the epidemic is starting again in these regions, but a sign that prevention measures must be improved in certain places (health establishment, slaughterhouses, etc.). This would be more worrying if the R was greater than 1 without a strong contribution from these clusters, because it would show a resumption of the circulation of the virus in the population. "
"We are borderline"
“Representing the epidemiological dynamics on the basis of administrative regions is in essence distorted: the total number of inhabitants and their density differ, the regional limits do not reflect any obstacle to mobility and finally, transmission is currently carried out in a localized way, even in some cases in a community context. Furthermore, the calculation of R is based here on PCR screening, the effort of which may vary from one region on the one hand, and be affected by the temporal variations of this effort and the discovery of clusters. However, the identification of clusters does not signify the resumption of the epidemic in a homogeneous manner on the regional territory. Hospitalizations and admissions to intensive care are more reliable from this point of view, ”also testified at 20 Minutes a CNRS researcher.
If this card is really anxiety-provoking with its three red zones, taking up the color codes of confinement which marked the spirits but having no link with a measure of this type, Doctor Marc Rozenblat, head of a Covid center in Pontault- Combault (Seine-et-Marne) during the epidemic, thinks for its part that it is ultimately a good booster shot, as he explains to us: "In any case, we are in most of the territory just 0.9 of R, we are borderline . If it goes up to 1.5, we are not good! And the government is annoyed, because above 1, it would have to be reconfigured ... But rather in very limited areas. The virus is still there, it's important to remember, people no longer take account of barrier gestures. We are still in a state of health emergency, until July 10. We risk having a second wave in a fortnight. In any case, just press a button, we are ready on our side to receive the sick at the center. One thing is certain, it is not over. "
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