Dam on the Nile: how to avoid the water war?

Audio 4:24

By: Dominique Baillard Follow

Tension is raging on the banks of the Nile where the next launch of the mega hydroelectric dam built by Ethiopia is more disputed than ever by Egypt and Sudan. The question is discussed this Tuesday at a meeting of the Arab League, at the request of Cairo. Each of the riparian countries considers that its survival depends on this structure. For good or for bad !

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The Nile is vital for Egypt, it provides 97% of its water needs; it is also a major source for the Sudanese neighbor. For these two downstream countries, the dam is therefore evil, which is why they have been fighting for ten years with Ethiopia to guarantee their access to water, an invaluable asset in this region of the globe. On the other hand, the work baptized "Renaissance" by the Ethiopians constitutes a fabulous source of development for the country where the river takes its source. Ethiopia which is therefore preparing to start filling the reservoirs during the rainy season in July when there is still no agreement on water management. His goal: to start producing electricity next year. Ultimately this dam will provide the equivalent of one and a half times the current electricity production of Ethiopia. Enough to cover domestic demand, one home in 2 is still without power, to support the country's prodigious economic growth and even enough to export to its neighbors, including Sudan.

Thanks to hydroelectricity, Ethiopia would become a great regional power

And his neighbors already criticize him for behaving in hegemonic power by refusing to submit to a commitment on the passage of a minimum volume of water in the event of severe drought. With global warming this kind of event will occur more and more frequently, a real calamity for such populous countries. The three are home to 272 million inhabitants and their number will almost double within thirty years. This demographic bomb makes Egyptian rulers particularly nervous. The last discussions conducted this winter under the aegis of Donald Trump have failed. At the request of Cairo, the United Nations Security Council took up the file and yesterday, Monday, his spokesman called on the three countries to work together to resolve their dispute peacefully.

Are we going towards a water war?

This is what the Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris claims. It is a real risk according to Franck Galland. This water security expert recalls that when Mohammed Morsi was president, a video leaked on YouTube, evoking the use of Egyptian combat aviation, or even support for minorities to fuel tensions in Ethiopia. To avoid the conflict, a financial solution must be found to help Egypt. Because what this country urgently needs, suggests Franck Galland, is a Marshall plan to limit the use of Nile waters. A plan to support less intensive agriculture, which uses less water and to build desalination plants. Donald Trump, who had surprised the international community by wanting to mediate, at the request of Egypt, had put his approach in an economic perspective by entrusting the file not to the Secretary of State but to Steven Mnuchin, in charge of the Treasury. The President joined the World Bank in the negotiations in the hope of reaching an agreement with financial compensation for Egypt. In vain, this process is today broken. Surprisingly the other great power very concerned by the file, China remains very discreet. Ethiopia's first trading partner, its main bilateral creditor as well, is undoubtedly seeking to protect Egypt, which it has approached since the coming to power of General Sissi.

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• Africa
• Ethiopia
• Sudan
• Egypt
• Water