- Six weeks. This is the time it will have taken to move from complete containment of the country to the end of the certificates, the reopening of enclosed spaces, the freedom to move around the country and the possibility of regrouping.
- This Tuesday, a new company health protocol should be unveiled, more streamlined than the previous one. In schools, it has already been reduced so that all students can go back to school.
- Is deconfinement going too fast? If the question is legitimate and the risk present, several elements reassure French deconfinement.
A month and a half ago, seeing friends was on the verge of taking us to the scaffold and to popular retribution in a completely confined France. Not even six weeks after the beginning of the deconfinement, the Fête de la Musique gives birth to large popular gatherings, the sports halls, cinema, theaters, bars and restaurants have reopened, the French are asked by the State to spend their money and their restaurant vouchers in seaside resorts and teleworking is once again about to become an exception again, while the government is preparing to lighten the health protocol in business on Tuesday.
With the exception of a few masks at the supermarket and the shutdown of our dear Ligue 1, we have the impression that the life before, that which we mentally prepared to never find again for years, is back . After the joy of the report comes the concern: is it not dangerous to reduce health measures to this point, and are we not launched at 150 km / hour on the highway for a second wave of coronavirus ?
A mostly successful deconfinement so far
As we begin to seriously have knees slamming, Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health at the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Geneva, is reassuring. For the moment, forced-air deconfinement in Western Europe is very successful and no epidemiological rebound is to be noted.
So certainly, as Jean-Stéphane Dhersin, deputy scientific director of the National Institute of Mathematical Sciences in epidemic modeling recalls, it takes about fifteen days to see the effects of each new measure of deconfinement, the time that the symptoms of viruses can be identified: "It all depends on what you find. If it is a slight increase in R0 (the famous rate of people infected by a patient), we can easily go back on the measures and moderate the epidemic. If it's a Mulhouse-style mega cluster, it's much more uncontrollable. "
So we did not go out of business, especially given the number of clusters which populate a little everywhere in the slaughterhouses of Europe. "But if we find so many clusters, it's also because we're looking for them," emphasizes the always reassuring Antoine Flahault. Identifying them as well should reduce their impact. A cluster is a bit like the spider in the bathroom: it's scary when you see one, but it's when it disappears from your field of vision that you really have to worry.
Bold but constrained bet
The whole question is therefore whether the massive increase in tests, the use of masks or social distancing measures will be enough to compensate for the end of confinement in order to prevent the second wave. Verdict? Well to tell the truth, we don't know. "It is clearly a daring bet that Europe is making, because confinement to a possible vaccine is impossible for societal and economic reasons. We are on a somewhat blind deconfinement, asserts Jean-Stéphane Dhersin while we are looking for our stress ball. Obviously, if we had a complete understanding of the mode of transmission of the virus, we would react better. Science unfortunately cannot answer these questions instantly. "
Beyond economic necessity, too slow and late deconfinement could be counterproductive, argues Antoine Flahault. According to the researcher, for the population to correctly respect the barrier rules, they must have a sanitary meaning. It is therefore difficult to imagine measures that are too strict while all the figures for the epidemic are slowing down.
Don't cry too much in the wind
In the same way, playing too much Cassandre could lose us. On May 11, the festive gatherings on the Canal Saint Martin had triggered their lots of horrified comments predicting a second Parisian wave two weeks later. It did not happen.
"We must not cry too much to the wolf, otherwise the speech becomes inaudible. The music festival, for example, is a young population and especially outside, but we have seen that almost all the clusters were in closed places, "says the researcher, who nevertheless pleads for the wearing of mask in crowds and respect for social distancing.
A population less oblivious than we think
The closed places, precisely, we come backwards. The real question for the Swiss researcher is whether the resumption of face-to-face work, therefore in closed places or even worse air conditioned with recycled air, will mark an increase in the number of infections.
Once again, our concerns are quickly tempered. "If at the end of a fortnight, there is an upsurge in the epidemic, telework will again become the norm," says Antoine Flahaut. That's all ? “Contrary to popular belief, the population shows great health rationality. She will be able to adapt if it is shown that enclosed spaces are bad. "
A caution anyway
With regard to the adaptation of populations, Jean-Stéphane Dhersin adds: “If we point out young people a lot, we must remember that populations who know they are fragile protect themselves enormously and adopt strict sanitary measures. What reduce the risk of a deadly second wave. Even during the first, the expert takes as an example the very low mortality of cystic fibrosis patients, an extremely fragile population facing the coronavirus: “But precisely, knowing that they are very at risk, these patients took extreme precautions. "
All is well then, can we continue to go to work by public transport with a light mind and take a drink with friends? "Nothing says that a second wave will not happen, warns Antoine Flahaut. Without playing surprise, we must at least maintain vigilance. This is the complexity of the French gamble: maintaining vigilance while resuming a normal life ...
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- Covid 19
- Deconfinement
- Coronavirus
- Society
- epidemic
- France
- Confinement