Collective immunity of the new corona achieved with acquisition of about 43% of the population American scientific magazine June 24 5:22
About "collective immunity" that many people acquire immunity to the new coronavirus and the infection does not spread, an American scientific magazine may be achieved if approximately 43% of the population acquires immunity Published a paper. However, this scientific journal continues to call for the importance of infection control, assuming that each country is not in the current state of achieving collective immunity.
Research groups in the United Kingdom and Sweden theoretically wonder how much of the population can achieve "immunity immunity" when the majority of the population acquires immunity and the infection does not spread if the new coronavirus is acquired. Was calculated.
As a result, it was found that if 43% of the population acquired immunity, they could achieve "collective immunity" that would prevent further spread of the infection.
Regarding the specific estimation method, the research group divides the population into 6 groups according to age, and assumes that the risk of infection is different, and also divides the activity into 3 stages to determine how infection occurs. I'm guessing that it will spread to.
The conventional guess is that 60% of people need to acquire immunity, which means that it is possible to obtain even a smaller ratio.
However, the research group says that this conclusion is "not to make precise predictions."
Also, the editorial department of the scientific journal "Science", which published the article, said that he was concerned that the importance of infection control would be neglected, saying, "Even if 43% can achieve collective immunity, No country has reached that level," he said, calling for continued measures such as avoiding contact with people.