Chinanews.com client Beijing, June 15 (Peng Jingru) "May the sales price of commercial housing rose slightly month-on-month."
Kong Peng, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said on the 15th that the order of production and living continued to recover, housing demand was further released, the real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities was generally stable, and prices rose slightly.
So, which city's house prices are at the forefront?
57 city new house prices rose month-on-month, Yinchuan rose the first
The data shows that the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in all tier cities have slightly increased month-on-month, and the increase in second-hand housing is the same as last month or slightly expanded. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, Yinchuan led by 2.1%.
Among them, 57 cities saw first-hand housing price increases, 2 cities remained flat, and 11 cities fell. Compared with April, the number of cities with new house prices rising in May increased by 7 cities, the number of cities with falling house prices remained unchanged, and the number of cities with new house price increases continued to increase.
Data map: Property consultants recommend commercial housing units for the public. China News Agency reporter Wei Liangshe
There were 41 cities with second-hand housing prices rising, 7 cities with flat prices, and 22 cities with falling prices. Compared with April, the number of cities where the price of second-hand housing rose in May increased by 4 cities, the number of cities with flat housing prices remained unchanged, and the number of cities with falling housing prices decreased by 4 cities.
Specifically, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.7% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.5 percentage points higher than last month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 0.8%, 0.3% and 0.6% respectively.
The sales price of newly built commercial housing in 31 second-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of newly built commercial housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 0.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
"From the list of cities where house prices in new homes have increased month-on-month, house prices in Yinchuan have increased relatively month-on-month." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told reporters from China News that such cities are actually at a stage of supplementary increase. Urban planning is relatively good, and prices tend to rise when market transactions rebound.
Second -tier housing prices rose more than 1% in first-tier cities , Beijing leads the country
Regarding the housing prices in first-tier cities, Yan Yuejin mentioned that from the month-on-month increase data of second- and third-tier cities' second-hand housing price indices in May, they were 1.1%, 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. The current increase in housing prices in first-tier cities is more obvious, not only higher than in second- and third-tier cities, but also from the historical trend, the increase is also expanding. More critically, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have risen by more than 1%.
Is there any mystery about this number?
"This is the first time that the price of second-hand houses in first-tier cities has risen by more than 1% since April 2017. In general, we will consider the level of more than 1% to be overheated housing prices, and the prices of second-hand houses in subsequent first-tier cities may be controlled. Especially the price of the school district." Yan Yuejin said.
Data Map: A residential area near Xizhimen in Beijing.
According to preliminary estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the sales prices of second-hand houses in four first-tier cities rose by 1.1% month-on-month, the same rate as the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 1.8%, 0.6%, 0.4% and 1.6% respectively. The sales prices of second-hand residential properties in 31 second-tier cities rose by 0.4% month-on-month, the same rate as last month.
58 President of the Anju Guest House Research Institute Branch Zhang Bo believes that the rise in housing prices in first-tier cities is directly related to the increase in market heat. For example, in May, not only did Shanghai's new house transaction volume reach its highest level in 44 months, but second-hand house transaction volume also significantly exceeded the monthly average in 2019. The volume of market transactions will have a direct effect on the psychology of home buyers and speed up the entry of watchers.
In May, Beijing's second-hand housing increased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year, with the 1.8% month-on-month increase ranking first in the country. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that the actual transaction volume of Beijing's second-hand housing reached 21,000 units in a single month. After the epidemic, the backlog of demand realized, and the housing transactions in the Xicheng School District were superimposed. .
Will national housing prices rise in June?
"The continuous recovery of the national market in May just past has basically returned to the level before the 2019 epidemic. Looking at the overall market, it has basically come out of a downturn." Zhang Dawei said.
The property market continued to recover in May. Will the current state continue in June? According to a report released by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute on the 15th, second-hand house prices in City 70 increased by 0.24% in May, slightly expanded month-on-month, and are in the "reasonable" range. The current monetary environment is relatively loose, and house prices have a certain upward momentum. However, credit policies and control policies are still strict, house prices are rising rapidly in the short term, and there is little possibility of leaving the reasonable range.
The report also pointed out that in June, the hot property market in some hot cities also led to a slight tightening of policies. For example, Suzhou does not participate in the bidding activities of state-owned construction land use rights listed in Suzhou urban areas for housing companies that illegally participate in land bidding; Hangzhou has restricted the pre-sale certificates for popular real estate due to the fierce new listings of "tens of thousands of people shaking". Issuance.
Data Map: A residential building in Hangzhou. Photo by Guo Qiyu
"Compared to the previous financial crisis, the mechanism of the epidemic's impact on housing prices is completely different. There is no trend of a great depression in housing prices." Yan Yuejin said that the opening rhythm of various types of real estate has accelerated recently, and the potential demand for housing is very strong, which makes the There is no significant room for house prices to fall. However, the conditions for a sharp rise are not yet mature, and they are basically in the stage of a small rise.
"From the perspective of cities where housing prices have fallen, cities such as Haikou, Sanya, and Beihai have experienced relatively large declines. This also shows that investment speculation demand has been further eliminated. Similar cooling in housing prices in cities further illustrates the implementation of the "housing and housing not speculation" orientation." Yan Yuejin said.
"In the first two weeks that have passed in June, the data of most cities in the country continued to run at a high level." Zhang Dawei believes that overall, although there is no maximum benefit of interest rate cuts, "watering and raising fish" is a real estate issue for both real estate buyers and mortgage buyers. Loans and funds for development companies are very ample. On the whole, if there is no surprise (decrease) in LPR (loan market quoted interest rate) on June 20, the market may gradually rise and fall.
What do you think of the subsequent trend of house prices? (Finish)