With its proposal to hold a referendum on withdrawal from the European Union, the Free Italy political movement opened the Overton window. Movement leaders are proposing a nationwide referendum and deciding whether Italy should maintain its EU membership.
In general, the issue of membership in the European Union is not a matter of Italy alone. The EU is clearly experiencing a half-life, and Italy is at the forefront of this issue.
The exhausted, ill country does not just doubt the EU - Italy no longer believes in it.
He does not believe in European unity, in support of a friendly shoulder in difficult times and in a common wallet. The European Union did not show any of this in relation to Italy. The country was suffocating in the fumes of the coronavirus, in Brussels they looked with horror towards Italy, but were in no hurry with help. Germany finally decided to provide "assistance" and provided several intensive care beds for Italians, and this was limited. "And it's all?" - asked in Bergamo.
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that the financial and economic shock that the country experienced during the pandemic should be smoothed out by Europe and Italy rightfully expects quality assistance. The politically correct statements of the prime minister in Brussels did not hear or pretended not to be heard. Meanwhile, demonstrations were already taking place on the streets of the country, demanding, among other things, for withdrawal from the EU. Typical, multicolor and different Italy protested chaotically. Some demanded an exit from the EU, others - treatment of the virus with yoga. On this occasion, the Catholic weekly magazine Famiglia Cristiana wrote that "protesters are the largest collection of idiots of the last decade." However, with all the carnival of the movement, Italy opened the Overton window for many EU countries.
Before the pandemic, talking about a possible exit from common Europe was simply not permissible. After the Italian disaster and the inaction of Brussels, the half-life of the EU is only a matter of time.
Indeed, the basic principles of the existence of the European Union have actually been destroyed. The principle, which provides for the mutual responsibility of all EU members in the event of economic, political, environmental crises, did not work. Within two months of the onset of the disaster in Brussels, no action was taken. Almost no country in the European Union has provided assistance to Italy, which showed the complete incapacity of Europe in extreme conditions.
It is no coincidence that voices about the possibility of secession from the European Union are heard in other countries - Hungary, Portugal, even Germany. In Austria, they have long been talking about the need to create within the European Union blocks of interest and geographical location. Vienna proposes the creation of a Central European Union, which could include, in addition to Austria itself, Hungary, Croatia, Poland, Slovenia.
No, Austria is against the collapse of the EU, but such a union within Europe has the opportunity to defend its interests in Brussels from a stronger position.
The most interesting question that surfaced in the wake of the pandemic: what to do with globalization? In the form in which globalization was built a few months ago, it can no longer be realized. The crisis, in particular in Italy, showed this very clearly. Most likely, the processes of globalization will continue, but they will go along the fault lines of the European Union - geographical, political and economic.
Fault lines are nothing more than a two-speed Europe, as German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder stated many years ago. Keeping its geographical shape, Europe will be divided into several blocks.
The core of Europe, its main sponsors and beneficiaries, will undoubtedly remain France and Germany, to which the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium will join. A Central European bloc is formed, led by Austria, which is described above. It can be assumed that Italy and Spain, as well as Portugal and Greece, will be able to defend their interests within the framework of the so-called Mediterranean Union.
If the above groups are created for economic and geographical reasons, then another group is a political bloc gravitating to external forces. We are talking about Poland and the Baltic countries, which promote the old idea of Jozef Pilsudski on Intermarium - a union of countries from the Baltic to the Black Sea. This idea is actively supported by the Anglo-Saxons, who see this as a real chance of creating a red line separating the West from Russia.
The countries that today do not play almost any serious political and economic role in the life of the European Union will remain non-aligned. They represent an economic swamp that absorbs the resources of the European Union, spraying its power and weakening the political component. The above blocks will fight for the votes of this swamp, offering money, political preferences and other benefits. Such a state of half-life of the European Union can last, according to some German economists, a fairly long time - up to ten or even 15 years.
Much will depend on Germany, which will play a leading role for any half-life. Although the German newspaper Die Welt, commenting on the idea of Italy on a referendum, sarcastically entitled the article with the words "... we hope that Germany will leave the European Union."
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.