Snow in the Pyrenees, a resource destined to become scarce. - Gonzalo Azumendi / VWPics / Sipa

  • A study reveals the evolution of the annual snow depth and duration of snow cover in the Pyrenees over almost 60 years, between 1958 and 2017.
  • The trend is downward, but the effects of global warming will be most noticeable in the years and decades to come.

So far, everything is not so bad, but it will not last. This is the very popular conclusion that can be drawn from a Franco-Spanish study carried out under the aegis of the Pyrenees Climate Change Observatory. Shared on Tuesday on the CNRS website, this document shows the evolution of the average annual snow depth in the massif, at 1,550 and 2,100 m above sea level, over almost 60 years, between 1958 and 2017.

“Snow is still very present in the Pyrenees, observes Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, climatologist at Météo-France, in Toulouse. We have the southernmost glaciers in Europe. But we are in a dynamic where things are changing rapidly. "

Different results at 2,100 and 1,550 m

In detail, the figures are clearly decreasing, especially in the western part, as is the duration of snow cover. But if the mantle, which exceeded one meter thick in the 1950s, has melted from almost 20 cm to 2,100 m in half a century, it has barely budged 550 meters below, with an average layer of 'about 18 cm.

The evolution of the average snow depth in the Pyrenees at 1,550 meters and 2,100 meters above sea level. - OPCC

Simon Gascoin is a CNRS researcher at the Center for Space Biosphere Studies (Cesbio) in Toulouse. He also participated in the study and put forward an explanation: “Summer and spring temperatures increase faster than the others, which affects the altitude of 2,100 m more strongly. »At these heights, there is still snow in April (but less than before, therefore, with global warming), while lower, it is not likely to decrease since it has generally already melted .

Winter 2019-2020, revealing a near future?

"Snow cover is more complicated to analyze than temperatures," says the specialist. Hence the interest in long-term work, as here ... “Already, the variations can be very significant from one year to the next. Then, heavy snowfall may well be compatible with global warming. If you have significant precipitation and the temperature drops for example from -10 ° C to -9 ° C, it will still snow. "

"The winter we have just experienced can offer a glimpse of what to expect in the future," says Simon Gascoin. With much less snow, especially at low altitude, while at high altitude, a snowpack has formed. The projections are very clear: in the future, there will be less snow in duration and thickness. "

#Climate warming: The death of the #glaciers of the Pyrenees is scheduled… sooner than expected
By @opcc_ctp for @ 20minutes
👉According to @ By 2040, the last vestiges of the ice age will have disappeared from the massif.https: // t .co / 3AXzPI79Le

- confined climate info (@infoclimat_) November 17, 2019

The rain-snow limit logically rises with the rise in temperatures. And the flakes that fall in abundance at the end of autumn, as in November, are no longer synonymous with a guaranteed all-white winter, as the rainy "washings" have become numerous. In 2018, the Climpy cross-border meteorological project predicted that at an altitude of 1,800 m, in the central Pyrenees, the average height of powder snow could decrease by half by 2050, while the period of its permanence on the ground would be shortened by more of a month.

"Whatever the scenario, even with an increase in temperatures of" only "1.5 ° C, the snowpack continues to fall, supports Jean-Michel Soubeyroux. It is no longer sustainable at medium altitude. Over the next twenty years, it is expected that we will still have well-snowed winters, but this will become increasingly rare. "

And after 2040, things should get even worse for lovers of white gold, and the professionals who live by it. Not to mention the upheavals for fauna and flora. "One more degree is a zero isotherm that goes up 180 meters," describes the climatologist. However, between 1959 and 2010, temperatures increased in the Pyrenees by 1.2 ° C, according to Climpy. And by 2050, they could climb 4 ° C, and even 7 ° C at the end of the century.

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