Only a few days left before the swearing in on Sunday, May 17, of an Israeli government of union formed by yesterday's two rivals, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz.

If the hatchet was first buried to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, this emergency union, sealed on April 20, paves the way for the annexation of the Jordan Valley and settlements in the West Bank.

Because the power-sharing agreement between Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz provides for the presentation to the Knesset, from July 1, of a plan to implement the American project to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 

This project, presented in January by US President Donald Trump, promotes the annexation by Israel of the more than 130 Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank and the Jordan Valley, a strip of land stretching between Lake Tiberias and the Dead Sea , and which would become Israel's new eastern border with Jordan.

However, revealed on the night of Wednesday, May 13, the "guidelines" of the mission of the future Israeli government do not explicitly mention "annexation".

They mention the need to "strengthen national security" and to work for "peace". Fuzzy references, which suggest that the Israeli plan presented on July 1 will contain limited measures, such as the only attachment to Israel of settlements near Jerusalem and not all of the territories mentioned in the Washington recommendations. This is what some Israeli analysts think, who invite to take a step back from political statements. 

Not unanimous in Israel

"When you look at the coalition agreement and listen to what the Trump administration and Netanyahu said about it, you would say that it is almost an agreement reached," notes Daniel Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel and visiting researcher. at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "I don't think this is an agreement. I think it will take some time," he said in the columns of Haaretz.

Indeed, Benny Gantz is not known to be a strong supporter of the annexation, nor his voters in the center and the left, according to Israeli polls. During his campaign, the leader of the Bleu Blanc party had rather declared himself for an application of Israeli sovereignty in the Jordan Valley, while wishing to coordinate with the international community.

In the agreement which binds him to Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz had to give up the right of veto which he asked for on the subject. Nevertheless, he is quite capable of influencing the way in which the question of annexation is viewed behind the scenes.

According to Daniel Shapiro, the voice of this former chief of staff of the Israeli army will not be ignored. For example, he notes, the leader of the Blue White party could suggest less extensive annexations than those planned in Donald Trump's plan, "something 'more modest' and in agreement with the Israeli consensus - like the big settlement blocks near the Green Line (the internationally recognized Israeli borders before 1967) ", specifies the researcher.

Other factors could delay the hasty presentation of an Israeli plan. First, the senior Israeli military hierarchy appears to be opposed to the annexation. A group of 220 former generals and high-ranking officers from the Israeli military and security services issued a statement in early April, warning that unilateral acts of annexation could "jeopardize the peace treaty and security cooperation with Jordan, coordination with the Palestinian security forces and the very Jewish character of the state. "

Even a small-scale annexation, they warned, "risks turning into a large-scale annexation," triggering "a chain reaction over which Israel will have no control." 

A committee of experts is already mapping the new frontiers

By July 1, an Israeli-American mapping committee is responsible for drawing the boundaries that will be established as part of the possible annexation project. 

However, its work has been slowed by the coronavirus crisis, during which Israel has banned the entry of foreign nationals on its territory, indicates Times of Israel. While the United States has evacuated part of its diplomatic personnel. 

Another signal: according to a senior White House official interviewed anonymously by the Israeli television channel Thirteenth channel, for the White House, the calendar "is not rigid" and the date of July 1 for the final presentation of 'An Israeli annexation plan is not "a sacred date". This suggests that postponing the presentation of the plan is not impossible.

Race against time for Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu will do everything to pass a vote on the annexation plan as quickly as possible, before the American presidential election in November. But for Daniel Shapiro, the work of the cartography committee will need time to negotiate, because it will be subjected to strong pressures, notably from the settler communities, who are demanding a broad definition of their borders. Consequence: "This could bring the annexed territory well beyond the 30% that the Trump administration has indicated that it would support," said the expert. 

However, as the former high-ranking IDF officers recalled in their letter at the end of April, too large-scale annexations could destabilize the Israeli government, by disturbing the fragile balance of agreements between the Hebrew State and the Palestinian Authority. and neighboring countries. 

One thing is certain, to postpone the presentation of the Israeli annexation plan after July 1 would go against Benjamin Netanyahu. The future Israeli Prime Minister plays the watch and benefits from the relative global silence, caused by the Covid-19 pandemic which disrupted the functioning of international organizations. Some alerts have nevertheless been issued by the UN which declared that an annexation plan would be "legally, morally, politically, completely unacceptable", or by the European Union, considering that an annexation would be "contrary international law. "

With AFP

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