- Several Facebook accounts have taken up the results of a study suggesting that the coronavirus epidemic will end on July 9 in Israel and on August 9 in France.
- This study, from the University of Technology and Design in Singapore, itself warns against the interpretation of these data, which are hypothetical mathematical calculations that can evolve according to the situation of each country on the ground.
- Experts say the virus will take years to disappear from the planet if a vaccine is found.
"The epidemic will end on July 9 in Israel and August 9 in France according to the Singapore Institute. With this statement about the coronavirus pandemic, an article on infos-israel.news (which claims to be "French-language Israeli media linked to ongoing news in Israel") published on Wednesday has become viral on Facebook and made people react.
"Wow everything is programmed !!! "," Provided they are mistaken ", or on the contrary" Hope! “, Can we read in comments. The Israel News article reports that the "Data Management Laboratory (SUTD) at the Singapore Institute of Technology and Design has developed a mathematical model for 131 countries around the world where a coronavirus has been detected." A link refers to the study of this laboratory, the last update of which dates from Wednesday. It includes statistics showing the number of new cases of Covid-19 per day in different countries, and corresponding forecasts of the development of the pandemic. Concerning France, it is actually indicated, next to the graph, an exit from the epidemic on August 9 precisely: "End 97% around May 6. End 100% August 9. "
Other media also refer to this study by taking the data concerning their country. The Moroccan news site h24info.ma title thus: "Covid-19: estimates on the end of the epidemic in Morocco". The article then details: “The study conducted by the Data-Driven Innovation laboratory of the University of Technology and Design of Singapore gives three key dates on the end of the epidemic in each country. In Morocco, the study concludes, on the basis of official data, that this date will correspond to July 30, 2020. "
On Facebook, public groups like Nothing but Good News from Israel or Corona and the Jewish community also picked up on this post.
For the United States, the study suggests that 97% of the epidemic would have disappeared by May 15, and 100% by September 9. In Italy, 97% on May 9, 100% on August 31. Global data is also being delivered, and researchers estimate that the Covid-19 will have disappeared from the planet "around December 2".
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The Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) is an autonomous university which aims to train future graduates in technology and design. It is therefore an engineering school. On the site delivering this data, it is also specified that "the content of this website is strictly limited to educational and research purposes, and may contain errors. The model and the data are imprecise in the face of complex, evolving and heterogeneous realities of the different countries. "
If the curves of new daily cases correspond well to those given by other sites, for example on Worldometer, where we find a similar graph for France, the calculations of forecasts, which do not take into account the reality on the ground of each country, therefore remain theoretical and hypothetical. Moreover, the graphs presented by the Singaporean study project a 97% disappearance of the epidemic on May 10 on its own territory, but the latest news from Singapore shows that the city-state is suffering the brunt of the second wave of Covid-19.
"The tool is not an oracle"
Furthermore, the study authors warn: “Overoptimism based on certain planned end dates is dangerous, as it can weaken our discipline and control, and cause the return of the virus and infection, and must be avoided. "On the study site, there are 28 graphics, not 131, as indicated by Infos Israël News, which the site h24info.ma notes:" It should be noted that Morocco no longer appears on the list established by the University of Singapore. He is not alone, other countries such as Botswana, Côte d'Ivoire and Slovakia have been eliminated from the list, updated on Tuesday, April 28. The graph for Israel is also no longer available.
"This model is undoubtedly honest in its approach, but beware, the tool is not an oracle", thinks Emmanuel Baron, director of Epicenter, the Doctors Without Borders research center, contacted by 20 Minutes . “It is extremely difficult to make long-term predictions. It's a bit like the weather, if you want to image. "
The end in the 2030s?
"For an end to the epidemic on August 9, I sign immediately," reacts Dr. Marc Rozenblat, who runs a specific center at Covid-19 in Pontault-Combault (Seine-et-Marne), and to whom 20 Minutes also submitted the study. Rather, he refers to dates that are out of all proportion to those indicated by the University of Singapore: “These data do not hold water. Epidemiological studies have shown that the epidemic will end in the 2030s, 2032. On the other hand, it is only in the fall or at Christmas that collective immunity - when 60% of the population is affected - should be reached. So there will remain 40% ... We must not delude ourselves, the population will have to catch this virus. In summary, if we find a vaccine in a year and a half, two years, it will take ten years thereafter for the virus to disappear from our planet. "
Because we must also distinguish between the end of the epidemic and the eradication of the virus. François Renaud, biologist at CNRS, specialist in the evolution of infectious diseases, explained on March 3 on bfmtv.com that "when an infected person can only contaminate one other, the exponential phenomenon of the epidemic s' stopped ". This does not mean that the virus is 100% extinct, as one can mistakenly interpret it by reading the Singapore study. "When there are no more reported cases in the world, we can say that the virus is extinct. Apart from smallpox, others still circulate. For example, the H5N1 avian influenza virus is not eradicated and continues to be transmitted between birds. So you will probably have to live with SARS-CoV-2 for a long time.
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