Economic Observation Is
  Shenzhen's property market skyrocketing

  On the one hand, the office building is “cold”, and on the other hand, the sales of commercial houses are hot. This phenomenon is not only worthy of vigilance in Shenzhen, but also worthy of thinking elsewhere. At present, the state and local governments have issued many policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises and the development of the real economy. We must pay close attention to the flow of policy support funds and bank credit.


  The rise and fall of housing prices in first-tier cities are the most touching, and Shenzhen is the worst. Because there are many foreign funds in the property market, some people say that the Shenzhen property market is the most sensitive barometer of China's liquidity.

  According to the data of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in March released by the National Bureau of Statistics in China, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen rose by 1.6% month-on-month, ranking first in the 70 cities; It has reached a new high in the past two years.

  Some people rejoiced that the house they bought two months ago rose by more than 300,000 yuan; some people were sad because the price hesitated for more than a week, the new house was a few square meters less; and more people are still trying to save the future house Down payment.

  No matter how they feel, they have a similar doubt: In the days when the new coronary pneumonia epidemic raged, all industries and offline industries have been affected to varying degrees. How has the epidemic situation gas appeared in the Shenzhen property market.

Recurring chaos in the property market

  Li Xin (pseudonym) just bought a house in Futian District, Shenzhen in March and “floated” in Shenzhen for more than two years. This year she decided to set up a home for herself. The two-bedroom price of 60 square meters is more than 6 million yuan. She is not very satisfied with the house. She only ran for more than half a month to see the house. Seeing that the house price is rising, she dare not wait any longer.

  Since March, Shenzhen ’s “Thousands of Marriott ’s House” and “Millions of Tea Fees” have been circulating in the real estate circle, and anxious buyers are somewhat at a loss. In a real estate trading app, Li Xin found that after more than half a month, the price of second-hand housing in the community that she was concerned about generally rose, with an increase of between 100,000 and 300,000 yuan.

  Many friends around her originally planned to buy a house in the near future. They felt that the reduction in purchase demand in the epidemic would lead to a drop in house prices. "Sorry!" Friends who haven't bought a house are "voicing".

  During that time, many intermediaries called them, and the content was similar: "Brother (sister) whether or not to see the house, which house will rise recently" "There are a lot of people buying now, and which one will disappear after opening" "" Almost money is okay, there is a channel of funds "... There are rumors in the market that a lot of" hot money "has flowed into the Shenzhen property market.

  Some people questioned that “hot money” originated from “operating loans”. "Operation loan" is a product that banks need for small and medium-sized business owners or individual business owners. The interest rate fluctuates between 4% and 7%. When the "operating loan" interest rate is lower than the housing loan, there is arbitrage space for this fund to flow into the property market.

  During the epidemic, due to the introduction of a series of favorable financial policies to support SMEs at the national level, some home buyers have also found new opportunities for leverage. For example, at the end of February, in order to reduce the financing costs of small and medium-sized enterprises, Shenzhen granted a discount of up to 1 million yuan to the operating loans obtained by small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households during the epidemic period based on 50% of the actual interest paid. The discount period does not exceed 6 month.

  A bank employee told a reporter from China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily that the mortgage interest rate is now a little over 5%, and the "operating loan" is over 4: 00%. If a discount of nearly 1 point is used to buy a house for the buyer It is very cost-effective. For the money flowing into the property market, some bank account managers are also pleased with the success, "after all, investing in real estate is safer."

  The policy bonus funds to support small and medium-sized enterprises are used in the real estate field? Public opinion in the market continues to ferment. In response to this, the People's Bank of China Shenzhen Central Sub-branch issued a notice to the banks within the jurisdiction that the self-inspection mortgage loan funds were illegally flowing into real estate.

  On April 22, the People's Bank of China Shenzhen Central Sub-branch announced the preliminary investigation: no application for operating loans was found immediately after the registration of the company; no credit loans for small refinancing loans were flowing into the real estate market through real estate mortgage operating loans; jurisdiction Some commercial banks have customers who buy a house in full and then use the newly purchased property as a mortgage to apply for an operating loan, but the scale is small.

"Operation loan" is at most just "accomplice"

  In the view of many real estate experts interviewed, Shenzhen's property market is hot for many reasons. "Operation loan" is at most one of the "accomplices" and has limited impact.

  Some people have summarized the operational procedures for helping individuals apply for "operating loans," including buying shell companies, contacting middlemen to forge companies, and so on. Every step in the middle is not easy, and it also implies no small risks. Without the help of professionals, individuals can hardly complete it.

  "No one will move this thought if prices do not rise." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that although the "operating loan" interest rate has been linearly lowered in the past year, the repayment period is short and the return is strictly constrained. In the property market, there is no leverage risk. Small and strenuous.

  He believes that the high leverage of Shenzhen's housing prices is a historical reason. From the perspective of the "three-in-one" policy to curb the phenomenon of "yin and yang contracts" and "high appraisal and high lending", Shenzhen is the latest implementation of the first-tier cities in the country, that is, the evaluation of prices , The latest online price is unified. This round of "Xiaoyang Chun" in the Shenzhen property market is directly related to changes in Shenzhen's luxury housing tax standards last year.

  In November 2019, Shenzhen ordinary houses no longer set a price line. As long as the floor area ratio is higher than 1.0 and the single-floor building area is less than 144 square meters, all houses are ordinary residences and can be exempted from VAT for two years. At present, there are very few communities with floor area ratios less than 1.0. A set of current market value of 10 million yuan, the original price of 3 million yuan, the purchase of two years of house originally had to pay about 330,000 yuan in value-added tax, after the implementation of the New Deal, this money was directly reduced. The policy directly caused the homeowner to reluctantly sell the house or raise the house price, and at the same time stimulated the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen, which has been affected so far.

"This is a capital market"

  In recent years, Shenzhen's economic growth has slowed, and its GDP growth rate has dropped from about 8.8% in 2017, 7.6% in 2018 to 6.7% in 2019, and it has declined by about 1 percentage point every year. Affected by the epidemic this year, Shenzhen ’s pillar industries such as foreign trade, export manufacturing and international logistics have been hit hard.

  Data show that in January-February 2020, the added value of Shenzhen ’s industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 18.5%, fixed asset investment fell by 22.9%, total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 20.5%, and total imports and exports fell by 17.6%. The Shenzhen economy has a high degree of external dependence. In 2019, Shenzhen ’s total foreign trade imports and exports totaled 29.7386 trillion yuan, exceeding the total GDP of the year, and the economy ’s external dependence reached 110.6%. It is foreseeable that the epidemic situation will have a profound impact on Shenzhen's economy in 2020.

  From the perspective of the property market, the vacancy rate of commercial office buildings in Shenzhen has continued to rise in recent years, and this figure reached 22.4% in 2019. Affected by the epidemic this year, the vacancy rate hit a new high. According to the latest data from Dai Deliang, one of the "five major banks" of international real estate consultants, the vacancy rate of Shenzhen's commercial office buildings rose to 24.6% in the first quarter of this year.

  On the one hand, the office building is “cold” and on the other hand, the sales of commercial houses are hot, which deserves vigilance.

  "This is a market for funds." Li Hongbin, a senior researcher at the Stanford University Economic Policy Institute, reminded us that the economic data and corporate annual reports of the United States have not performed well in recent years, but the stock market has risen because of what? There is a lot of money in the United States. If the money is nowhere to go, the stock market will be raised. China should pay attention to the flow of funds.

  On April 22, the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau released the "Shenzhen Housing Development 2020 Annual Implementation Plan": 2020 commercial housing plans to arrange 125 hectares of land, with a construction area of ​​about 5.63 million square meters, and plans to provide 63,000 sets of land for construction . In 2020, it plans to arrange for the supply of 168.2 hectares of land for public housing; plans to raise 81,000 sets of housing projects; plans to basically complete (including completed) about 22,800 housing projects; plans to supply 40,000 housing projects.

  On the second day of the plan's release, an intermediary sent a message to Li Xin. He said that the plan had an obvious effect of increasing supply and stabilizing expectations, but Shenzhen's large population base, high density, and rapid growth. The long-term tension between supply and demand is one of the problems faced by the Shenzhen property market. Do not dispute facts.

  China Youth Daily · China Youth Network reporter Zhang Junbin Source: China Youth Daily