The World Health Organization expects the new Coronavirus / Covid 19 virus to last for a long time, up to one and a half years in the form of second and possibly third waves.
Whoever reads the history of the Spanish flu knows that it has witnessed waves that lasted until 1921. We face a pandemic that hits the countries of the world as a whole and is not limited to a specific region. Therefore, we are facing a decisive phase of history that certainly did not precede what will come next.
Politically, the world will lean toward the left even if the governments are right-wing and we see this clear today in the statements of US President Donald Trump, in which he promises to support the government sector in the face of the crisis, although this contradicts the principles of the party that sanctifies privatization.
If Trump won the elections in November, he would be more inclined to incline more, and he would address the shortcomings that appeared in the crisis, most notably health, and increase the trend to establish strategic industries, in addition to trying to reform the social situation and solve the problem of unemployment, which Trump began on 22 this month by issuing a decree preventing Temporarily emigrating to the United States, according to the president: The decree puts the unemployed Americans at the forefront of job seekers.
The United States will move to move manufacturing industries inward and boost exports, and this means moving away from China as much as possible, and it may even reach an extreme decision to separate the two gigantic economies from each other.
Washington Trump will reduce its contributions to international organizations and we see this happening today after Trump suspended America's contribution to the World Health Organization, and Trump's unilateral decision has withdrawn from the nuclear agreement with Iran and "UNESCO" and the Paris Climate Agreement.
In the event that the second wave of the epidemic comes in the summer or so as the organization warns today, the White House resident may announce a new emergency and suspend the elections and remain an obligatory fifth year in office, and he will often find support from his supporters in Congress, despite the political crisis that this constitutes.
If Democrat Joe Biden wins, he will try to return to international cooperation policies with allies and partners, but that is not guaranteed, even if he wants to, because the world will differ at the time, and the American and global popular mood will tend to focus on the interior first.
The United States' accusations against China of causing the virus to spread, Russia interfering in the elections, and instigating unrest in the world will be strengthened after the crisis because of Washington's departure from the international scene and its focus on domestic issues, indicating the shaking and changing pillars of the global system that emerged in 1990.
In Arabic: The new world order will not be clear-cut and unknown poles, the United States will go inward, and the two international players (China and Russia) will be very exhausted and will not fill the American void from day to night, and it will take time until they come up with a plan to market themselves as alternative global leaderships, and they may not succeed necessarily.
Abdulla.AlQamzi@emaratalyoum.com
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