(Fighting against New Coronary Pneumonia) The latest research: Social alienation measures are necessary and effective for epidemic prevention and control
China News Service, Beijing, April 23 (Reporter Sun Zifa) The latest research paper on the prediction of a new model of epidemiology published in the international academic journal Nature-Medical stated that the new coronary pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic prevention and control has now taken social alienation The measures are necessary and effective and should be implemented immediately at the initial stage. At the same time, the closure of the city can only be safely lifted if large-scale testing and contact tracking is implemented.
The corresponding author of the research paper is Giulia Giordano of the University of Trento, Italy, and his research team has developed a new model that can use the epidemic data to predict the direction of the pandemic in Italy. This model divides the infection into 8 stages, distinguishing between confirmed and non-confirmed populations, or may provide decision makers in Italy and other places with a tool to evaluate the effectiveness of available strategies, including closures and social alienation, detection and contact tracking.
Giulia Giordano and colleagues used data from Italy from February 20, 2020 (Day 1) to April 5, 2020 (Day 46) to analyze the gradual restriction measures (including the most recent from March 2020 The closure of the city starting on the 9th) affected the spread of the epidemic in Italy. The researchers also simulated long-term possible scenarios for the effects of different coping strategies, including social alienation, contact tracking, and universal detection. According to the model's prediction, the number of simultaneous infection peaked around the 50th day, and 0.19% of the population was infected; but at the same time, the number of diagnosed peaked will wait until about a week.
The results of this study confirm a hypothesis that diagnostic actions can reduce peak infections and help end the epidemic more quickly. Although the model does not take into account the shortage of medical resources caused by the full or overloaded operation of the medical system, the researchers pointed out that such analysis can be carried out indirectly. For example, when there are many critical patients, the mortality rate will be caused by the intensive care unit ( ICU) is insufficient to increase.
The study also found that taking part of the closure of the city will delay the peak number of concurrent infections and ICU admissions, but the total number of infections and ICU admissions will only decline slightly. On the contrary, the implementation of a very strict social alienation strategy can lead to a predictable decrease in the number of concurrent infections and ICU admissions, and the total number of infections and ICU admissions will decrease significantly. The researchers estimate that the looser closure measures would have 70,000 deaths in the first year, while the stricter closure measures would correspond to 25,000 deaths.
The author's new epidemiological model divides the infection into eight stages: suspected (uninfected); infected (asymptomatic or asymptomatic infection, undetected); diagnosed (asymptomatic infection, detected ); Illness (with symptoms of infection, not detected); confirmed diagnosis (with symptoms of infection, detected); critical illness (with symptoms of life-threatening infection, detected); recovery (recovered); death (dead). (Finish)