Less than 6% of French people have been infected with the coronavirus, a level that is very insufficient to avoid a second epidemic wave if all measures are lifted after May 11, according to estimates published Tuesday by the Institut Pasteur.
“For collective immunity to be sufficient to avoid a second wave, 70% of people with immunity would be needed. We are very far below, ”explains AFP the main author of the study, Simon Cauchemez. Consequently, "after confinement, if we want to avoid a second major wave, measures must be maintained," he adds.
The prospect of a rebound in the epidemic will force a very gradual deconfinement from May 11, moreover warned Sunday Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, according to whom the French will not find "not immediately and probably not before long »Their« life before ».
"We will be very far from 70%"
Carried out by the Pasteur Institute in collaboration with the public health agency France and Inserm, the study is based on mathematical and statistical models. These tools allow cross-referencing data on deaths and on the probability of dying when one is infected, in order to arrive at an estimate of the share of the infected population (5.7%).
"The uncertainty interval is important, between 3 and 10%," notes Simon Cauchemez. But "whether it is 6%, 10% or even 20%, that does not really change the nature of the problem, which is that in any case, we will be very far from the 70% we would need to be able to exit the containment without problems, ”he said.
0.5% of those infected die
The small share of the infected population is due to confinement itself, notes the study, according to which "the average number of people infected by a case fell from 3.3" before confinement "to 0.5 during". The purpose of containment, a measure taken by many other countries, was to prevent a massive influx of patients at the same time, which would have exceeded the capabilities of the hospital system.
In addition, the study estimates that 0.5% of those infected die. "Lethality varies with age and sex," says Simon Cauchemez. "Men are much more likely to die when they are infected than women (they have a 50% higher risk than women) and this differential increases with age," he continues. Thus, the death rate is 13% in men over 80 years of age.
Finally, these studies show that the risk of hospitalization is 2.6% for people who have been infected. It increases sharply with age, reaching 31% in men over 80 years of age.
- Containment
- Coronavirus
- Society