A team of researchers at Harvard University said that "continuous or intermittent social divergence may be necessary until the year 2022" due to the pandemic of the emerging coronavirus, in a new study published in the journal Science.
The researchers concluded from analyzing computer simulation models for a number of scenarios that lifting current restrictions too quickly or too early could delay the pandemic, which could make the consequences more dangerous.
According to the Dubai Future Foundation's "Observatory of the Future", the researchers said in the research paper, "The additional measures, including increasing the capacity of the intensive care units and effective treatment, will improve the chances of intermittent spacing success and accelerate the acquisition of herd immunity." The researchers warned that "Covid-19 disease may return in the year 2024."
Long periods of strict social separation may lead to another problem. In a simulation model that included strict social separation procedures, “social separation was effective to the point where there was no societal immunity.”
According to the researchers, "the disease is back in all simulations when the social divergence measures are stopped." To solve this problem, the researchers propose an approach that relies on "intermittent spacing" at regular intervals.
The researchers emphasized that these theoretical models may not serve the current situation, and they said, "We do not encourage the actual adoption of the results of this simulation due to the economic burdens that may be carried by the continuous spacing, but we warn of the potential catastrophic burden on the health care system if the spacing is not effective or long in an image." Enough. ”
Researchers acknowledge that they must answer some important questions to improve the accuracy of these models. Does the virus spread in the winter faster than it spread in the summer? How long does immunity last after infection? How will the virus interact with other viruses that cause cold symptoms?
The researchers believe that our chance to completely eradicate the virus is minimal, and it is likely that periodic cases will appear every year, two years, or several years.
We still have a tool to fight it, according to the study: "The vaccine may accelerate the accumulation of societal immunity, reduce the total duration of the pandemic, and reduce cases requiring extreme care in hospitals."