"Hard-core" doctor Zhang Wenhong: If the number of cases is hidden, will Wuhan dare to open it?
On April 11, Professor Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Fudan University and the leader of Shanghai New Coronary Pneumonia Medical Treatment Expert Group, was interviewed by the People's Daily New Media in Shanghai.
Will the domestic epidemic continue? What should be paid attention to when resuming work? Is a comprehensive nucleic acid test required to screen asymptomatic patients? Pay close attention to what this "hard core" doctor said.
● Does the domestic epidemic still occur repeatedly?
Infectious diseases can be easily controlled as long as they stop spreading. The "best case" that I predicted before happened, that is, the domestic epidemic was completely controlled. But my prediction is also wrong, because the worst has happened, the epidemic is spreading all over the world, and it is not under control.
It is now in a very complicated situation, so complicated that it is difficult to judge when the international will end, and it will be difficult to judge the impact of the international epidemic on China. Therefore, good prevention and control of domestic epidemics does not mean that there is no risk. Risk is input. Input is sometimes hidden, and if there is poor control, there will be problems.
● Is the relatively small number of cases in China because of hidden cases?
Infectious diseases have a characteristic that cases cannot be hidden.
There are many foreign media saying that the number of cases in China is so small, and Shanghai is so small. Have the patients been hidden? Work resumed in Shanghai on February 9th. It has been two months now. If there are many cases hidden there, it is very simple. I dared not to wear a mask during the interview today. If there are many cases hidden, will Wuhan dare to open it? impossible.
● What are the most likely risks in the process of resuming production?
China is the country with the best control of the epidemic in the world. It is unreasonable for us not to resume production.
Resuming work and resuming production must have people living together and working together. This is the risk. I suggest that some basic health measures should be retained after resuming production. For example, when the crowd gathers, it is necessary to wear a mask and maintain a certain social distance. Wearing a mask is an extension of the social distance.
At present, the most risky link is eating, which is a link to go to the mask, and eating together is easy to get infected. The solution is not to gather in the cafeteria, either pack it back to eat alone, or go to the cafeteria in batches. Keep at least one principle and do not allow to eat together. When eating out, you should also pay attention to keeping a distance and sharing meals, or using public chopsticks.
● Is it possible that the students will bring an epidemic after the school starts?
The first is to fully assess the risk, the second is to take preventive measures, and the third is not to delay school too much, and to resume work and study in batches and accurately.
Return to school is an extremely important matter. Once someone returns to school, it is spread within the school. There is a prioritized order. Those who want to take the high school entrance examination must first study again. If after the second and third week of junior high school and junior high school is okay after two weeks, it can show that the risk is controllable and slowly let the other grades resume.
In contrast, college students are not very anxious, and can complete the teaching content through online teaching. Some majors that need to do experiments or some schools can gradually return to school.
● Is a comprehensive nucleic acid test necessary to screen for asymptomatic infections?
People with symptomatic infections and asymptomatic infections are two sides of the same coin. If there are many asymptomatic infected people in Wuhan, there will certainly be many symptomatic infected people. There are currently no confirmed cases in Shanghai, so I reasonably believe that there are no asymptomatic infections in Shanghai. Similarly, as long as there are no newly confirmed cases in Wuhan, I think it is safe, so it is not necessary and impossible to perform nucleic acid testing for every Wuhan person to screen asymptomatic infected people. Some suggestions should consider the feasibility of the operation Sex.
For asymptomatic infected people, I think that in two to four weeks, if there are no symptomatic people after the restart in Wuhan and no more outbreaks, then the issue of asymptomatic infected people can be avoided.
● Will the virus disappear after the weather warms up?
In some countries around the equator, the climate is extremely hot, but the number of cases has doubled, so do n’t be superstitious that the temperature will control the new coronavirus.
However, the weather is hot and the number of cases will decline. One is that the virus is not heat-resistant, and the temperature is high in summer, and the replication rate of the virus is slow; the second is that although the air conditioner is turned on in summer, the window is also opened for ventilation. Ventilation is the best way to prevent and control; After the very strict prevention and control before, the epidemic situation has been controlled. Fourth, after this period of prevention and control, the people have developed better hygiene habits, so the number of cases will decline.
● Is travel on May 1 a wise choice?
I personally find it very contradictory. Everyone hopes to have fun and activate the economy, but I also worry that the crowds will cause the epidemic to spread. The best activity on May 1st is mainly outdoor travel. Wear masks when there are many people. The most feared thing is the place to eat. You may wish to "bring your own dry food" to eat in the hotel room.
The government should do a good job of prevention and control, and everyone should also be prepared for prevention, and develop good eating habits during the travel process. In this case, I think the tour can be started.
● What do you think of group immunization?
Influenza is a global pandemic every year, but it has never been said that influenza has become a group immunization, and the flu vaccine will still be vaccinated the next year. Through a pandemic, group immunization cannot be achieved at all. Historically, no infectious disease has been eliminated by group immunization. It is only through vaccines that vaccines can achieve "group immunization."
In addition, mass immunization will bring great disaster, the mortality rate of new coronary pneumonia is much higher than that of influenza. If not controlled in some backward countries, it will cause a large number of deaths and spread to the surrounding, and finally no one can get away.
● When will there be special drugs and vaccines?
I have had discussions with international experts, and do n’t expect too much from developing new drugs in a short period of time. Whether it is a drug or a vaccine, it has a very strict process and requires enough time.
Everyone pays attention to the drug reduxil, the mortality rate of severe patients after medication is 13%. This data is still relatively high. It may have some curative effect, but it is not enough to be called "magic medicine".
The research and development of vaccines have very high requirements, and tests for safety and efficacy should be done. In these few steps, if you go according to the regular time, it will take one to two years. According to our current practice, the fastest time will be a year later. One year later, we still have to judge according to some epidemic situations at that time, whether the case fatality rate is high or low, how strong the protective effect of the vaccine is, and whether there are adverse reactions of the vaccine. The vaccine is very important, but before the development is successful, I think the outbreak cannot seem to stop.
● Is there any possibility of a new global outbreak?
The risk of a new outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the world exists. We arrive in the summer, the southern hemisphere is winter, the viruses will transport each other, and the epidemic may not be interrupted. However, according to China's current public health system, we are capable of prevention and control.
(People's Daily client interview: Zuo Xiao's text compilation: Liu Jie, Han Wenjun, Qin Danyan)