Real story Rewa's Awa War April 9 at 15:29

What will happen to the chair of the president due to the spread of the new coronavirus?
In Nagata, there is a lot of interest in the impact on post-Abe. Meanwhile, one of the candidates, a member of the faction led by Shigeru Ishiba, the former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, began a fierce battle in Aku War in Tokushima, Shikoku.
Why did this happen? I followed the background.
(Satoshi Sekiya, Kazuma Ito, Akihiko Nishiura, Akihiro Kurokawa)

Should have been comrades

The Mayor of Tokushima election was held on the 5th of this month.
The current 64-year-old Akira Endo was aiming for the second term, while the 36-year-old Sawako Naito, the representative of a town development organization, challenged him.

Endo was supported by Masazumi Gotota, who was elected from the lower house of the Tokushima ward (7 times).

On the other hand, Naito was supported by Mamoru Fukuyama, who was elected to the Lower House proportional Shikoku block (three times), with Tokushima City as the ground.

Gotota and Fukuyama both belong to the LDP Ishibatsu. Two years ago, in the election of the governor, they were both committed to increasing support for Ishibashi.

There are 19 Ishiba schools supporting the post-Abe candidate, Ishiba Shigeru. It was a form of debate within a small faction with less than 20 nominators required to run for the presidential election.

The hint is long ...

The hint goes back six years. In 2014, the number of constituencies in Tokushima Prefecture decreased from three to two with a decrease of five in the lower house constituencies.

At that time, the former Tokushima 3 ward went to the reorganized Tokushima 1 ward.

On the other hand, Fukuyama has changed proportionately from the former Tokushima 1 ward. Fukuyama has been given a preferential ranking in the two elections since then, separated from Gotota in the constituency and has been successfully elected.

However, the rule of the Liberal Democratic Party is that "proportional treatment is limited to two times." Fukuyama looks for a candidate for a constituency in the next lower house election. Graduation with Gotoda began to occur gradually. The confrontation became decisive in the Tokushima governor's race last April.

While Fukuyama and other mainstream members of the LDP Prefectural Federation supported the incumbent aiming for the fifth term, Gotota raised a criticism of multiple elections and supported a newcomer to a former Prefectural Assembly member in the face of the Prefectural Federation's policies. As a result, the current incumbent won over 36,000 votes. However, looking at Tokushima City alone, the incumbent was 44,940 votes, and the newcomer was 44,168 votes, a close match of only 772 votes.

Gotoda barked at the results, saying, "It's effectively a defeat of his current position."

An expression of determination

About one month later, on January 25, the city council announced that the current mayor of Tokushima, Akira Endo, will be running for the second term. Fukuyama was seen at the party of Shunichi Yamaguchi, the chairman of the LDP Tokushima Prefectural Government, held in Tokushima City.

Fukuyama was accompanied by Sawako Naito, who announced her candidacy for the Mayor of Tokushima, and introduced her to acquaintances. An official watching this tweeted:
"Fukuyama has already decided. (Tokushima) When I went to the first ward, it was difficult to do Endo, which also has Gotoda. I'm taking care of Naito and trying to do well now."

The Tokushima mayoral election will take on the appearance of a "proxy war" in the next lower house in Tokushima.

Cut the fire

March 29, the date of notification.
The morning of Tokushima City was raining the day before and the sun was pouring down.

To prevent the transmission of the new coronavirus, neither side actively mobilized during the launch ceremony, and there were not many people gathered.

Of course, Naito's side had Fukuyama, and Endo's side had Gotoda.

Fukuyama implicitly criticized Endo, who is in conflict with the prefecture, saying, "I have a talk with citizens, prefectures, and the country, and I think Mr. Naito is a person who can support his hometown." Yale was sent to Naito, who has set up a cooperative route.

On the other hand, Gotoda shouted, "I must crush the vested rights of the vested rights together with Mr. Endo to the utmost extent," he said.

Local voice

Amidst growing concerns about the spread of the new coronavirus, the election campaign saw no big rally.

But the underwater fight was intensifying.

Fukuyama had been making phone calls to businesses. He has been active in Tokushima for many years, including being elected as a member of the Tokushima City council for the first term and then six consecutive times as a prefectural council with Tokushima as an electoral district. "Fukuyama knows exactly when to call a pattern-viewing company and get a vote," he told reporters with confidence.

Why did Fukuyama choose to fight each other when he had to become monolithic in order to make the faction chief, Ishibashi, the Prime Minister?

Fukuyama explained to reporters:
"I was very worried about the same Ishiba group, so I talked to Chairman Ishiba about what to do. I can't say the details, but anyway, the local request from me to run for me from Tokushima District 1 As a politician, I've been thinking about my hometown, but that doesn't mean I'm not thinking about factions. "

It's a silly power struggle

Gotota, on the other hand, took charge of the entire election headquarters.

The staff of Gotota's office gave detailed instructions to the selection of a campaign site and the course of the election car, and repeated the campaign to appeal to as many voters as possible without holding the rally.

One day during the election, I visited Gotoda directly.

He criticized Fukuyama, saying, "I'm only thinking about myself after all. I don't think about political parties or factions." And muttered this.

"This is 'Rewa's Awa War'"

The Awa War is a fierce election campaign in Tokushima that broke out in the Upper House election in 1974.

Masaharu Gotoda (later Deputy Prime Minister), who is the great uncle of Gotota backed by then Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka.

The fierce fight with Gotota was a faction member of Takeo Miki (later Prime Minister).

Masaharu Gotoda was rejected, but the Miki school and the Gotoda school continued to face conflict.

Gotoda continued his words bitterly.
"Ishiba is a LDP conscience and a savior. The Ishiba Liberal Democrat is a great option. It has to be increased by dozens or hundreds to make a big swell and flow. What happens when the Ishiba is reduced by one in Tokushima? Never.
In Tokushima, having such a struggle for power is tired. ''

However, he was confident in the Awa War.
"I'm sorry, but the next lower house election will add me to Mr. Fukuyama and opposition candidates, but I will be there.

April 4 the day before the vote.

A meeting of the LDP prefectural government was held. Gotota and Fukuyama lined up at the meeting, pretending to be calm, but their expressions were astonished. And Gotoda left the venue early.

Shunichi Yamaguchi, the chairman of the prefectural government and the Aso faction, said, "I'm dissatisfied."

Do not break home with hatred

And the 5th election day. The cherry blossoms were in full bloom in Tokushima City, and it was a mild spring weather. That night, Sawako Naito, who was promoted by Fukuyama, came up.

Become the youngest female mayor in history. There was less than 2,000 votes, a close match of about 2 points. Next to Naito was Fukuyama with a full smile.

Fukuyama told the interview, "I used to be a local constituency, and the city council members and the prefectural council members were doing so, so the locals said that it is better not to change the mayor. There were so many voices after all. "

And when asked about factions ...
"I was told that it was a proxy war between the Ishibashi factions, but I myself didn't know that. There were various conflicts of opinion, but political parties must still be like that. Don't hate and break your home. ''
He emphasized "no side" in a manner analogous to rugby he used to play.

Already settled

On the other hand, Gotoda who supported Akira Endo who lost. He said this while blurring the crispness. "This election is not a Liberal Democratic Party, only a difference in opinion on municipal administration."

Then, he strengthened his vocabulary and strongly checked Fukuyama.

"When the constituency in Tokushima was reorganized in 2014, the party headquarters, the prefectural government, I and Mr. Fukuyama signed a letter. I was one ward and Fukuyama was proportionate. And that's my promise as a politician. I want you to be responsible for what you say. "

In half

In an exit poll conducted by NHK on those who voted on the day, LDP supporters were split in two.

This is the Tokushima mayoral election, which could be called the "surrogate war" between the Ishiba factions. Although the mayoral election is over, the struggle between Fukuyama and Gotota for the lower house election is likely to increase.

Even in Kochi

Meanwhile, Kochi in the same Shikoku. Here again, Ishiba congressmen are in a tough position.

Kochi 2 ward in the western part of the prefecture is the base of Yuji Yamamoto of the Ishiba group.

In August of last year, governor Masanao Ozaki beat the electoral district, where Yamamoto, who has twice won the ministership experience, has long been in the ground. He said he would not run for the governor's election in November and would like to run from the second district of Kochi and the LDP in the next lower house election.

It is clear why Ozaki is bullish. It is because the leadership of the prefectural government with strong leadership and the popularity of the prefectural people is overwhelming. One more thing. Ozaki has a close relationship with LDP secretary-general Nika.

Yamamoto on the other hand. In the last lower house election, the opposition unification candidate lost a big margin. Despite the fact that he secured a seat in the proportional representation, the locals were worried that he could really win the next election. In light of these facts, in November last year, the Liberal Democratic Party Kochi Prefectural Government reported to the party headquarters its intention to support Ozaki as a certified candidate for Kochi 2 wards. If the constituency were to be handed over to Ozaki as it was, Yamamoto's remaining route would be a preferential treatment.

However, prefectural leaders say it is difficult. That's because in the Shikoku block, winning won't be guaranteed unless it is ranked second in the proportional roster. However, from Kochi Prefecture, Teru Fukui, a second-order sect, has been given preferential treatment. He further pointed out:
"Preferential treatment of Yamamoto of the Ishiba group, who has accused the Abe administration, will lead to a unity as the Liberal Democratic Party.

What to do

How does Ishiba Shigeru respond to the situation in Shikoku? Ishiba moved in Kochi.

One afternoon in early March, he attended a meeting at the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters and then entered the second floor secretary general's room on the fourth floor.

It is very rare for Ishiba, a "non-mainstream", to enter the secretary's room. Ishiba, who stayed for about 15 minutes and left the secretary-general's office, muttered only "I talked a lot" and left the party headquarters.

According to interviews with stakeholders, it was agreed that the second floor and Ishiba agreed to discuss each other to resolve Kochi's problem.

On the other hand, Tokushima, who is fighting each other, suffers suffering. In response to the results of the election of the Mayor of Tokushima in Ishiba, reporters were alleged to comment, "I can't say enough about the choices of Tokushima citizens."

Members of the Ishiba faction are paying attention to Ishiba's response.
"It's just a small faction. Chairman Ishiba probably knows what it's like to lose even one person. If he can't deal with it here, it's a pre-Abe problem."
"Everybody says nothing, but I'm watching the chairman's move. You should move more up front and highlight your move."

On the other hand, the other factions within the party said, "Is it okay that the person who is going to be the prime minister will not be able to contain the factions of his own faction? Rises.
One of the party's leaders said, "You should keep the facts within the faction. The party headquarters isn't going to make adjustments, it's just a matter of Ishiba."

Post Abe's touchstone

Ishiba, who ranks almost as high in various surveys asking him for "post Abe" In the last two presidential elections, the party's vote has been lagging behind the parliamentary vote, which has done well.

Reinforcing the party's base in pursuing post-Abe is the biggest challenge that must be overcome.
(Titles omitted in the text)

* Tokushima mayoral election For more information, please visit this special site

Tokushima Bureau reporter Satoshi Sekiya
Joined the station in 2015. First place in Tokushima for 6 years.
In charge of Mr. Gotoda in the mayoral election. He has studied abroad and is fluent in Chinese. Interested in foreign affairs

Kazuma Ito, Tokushima Bureau reporter
Joined the station in 2015. Via the Kitakyushu Bureau 201
Worked at the Tokushima Bureau from 9 years. Mr. Fukuyama is in charge of the mayoral election. Focus on education and welfare coverage.

Kochi Bureau Reporter Akihiko Nishiura
Joined the company in 2005. Worked at the Kochi bureau from 2017 after working at the Saitama bureau metropolitan area center, etc. In charge of the LDP in prefectural cap.

Akihiro Kurokawa, political reporter
Joined the station in 2009. After going to Tsu bureau and Okinawa bureau, go to the political department. Currently in charge of LDP Ishibatsu. My hobby is watching soccer games.