Expert “Minimize damage by reducing contact with people by 80%” New Corona Apr. 8 at 14:12
Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Hokkaido University, a member of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's cluster response group who conducted a simulation to provide evidence of efforts to reduce contact with people by 80% in the declaration of emergency, said, "By reducing contact by 80%, I hope that you can avoid prolonged measures and minimize damage to society and the economy. "
Professor Nishiura said, “Contacts that need to be reduced are conversations indoors, and activities such as outdoor walks and jogging are not included because they have a low risk. To reduce 80%, we have met 10 people so far. If you were to do so, try not to meet the eight people, especially if you have a little conversation indoors, but think about contact, but in order to maintain social functions, you need to use medical, logistics, lifeline, etc. The contact of people involved cannot be reduced: nearly 100% of contacts at night entertainment, izakaya, live houses, gyms, etc. that are already known to be at high risk of infection I want you to reduce it. "
"Even if it is not possible to reduce 80% of work styles immediately, we will reduce the number of steps by 40% this week, 60% next week, etc. Even small and medium-sized businesses where remote work is difficult, I would like them to take measures such as decentralized work, etc. There is a limit to each person's efforts, so let the people who run the company act and radically change We need to do that. "
According to Professor Nishiura, if the number of contacts can be reduced by 80%, the number of infected people per day will start to settle down in about two weeks, and it is expected that a tangible effect will appear in just one month after another two weeks It is possible.
On the other hand, Professor Nishiura said, "If contact is insufficiently reduced, it takes a very long time, about two or three months, to be effective if it is only about 70% or 60%." Even if it is painful, I hope that reducing contact by 80% will prevent prolonged measures and minimize social and economic damage. "