- While the spirits are heating up around a possible deconfinement in the near future, a document in particular is relayed in recent days on social networks.
- Coming from the international consulting group Boston Consulting Group (BCG), it envisages different dates of deconfinement for twenty different countries, including France. According to him, it would take place in June or July for France.
- No deconfinement date has yet been set in France, and the BCG group specifies at 20 Minutes that this file is a "simple working document in preparation" (and not forecasts), not intended to be made public .
Officially, the (current) date for the end of the containment put in place to stem the coronavirus epidemic is set for April 15. But, as Edouard Philippe recently reminded us, "[it] will last", and therefore probably be extended for several more weeks.
This does not prevent speculation from going well on the possible date of lifting of the restrictions, in particular thanks to a document produced by the consulting group Boston Consulting Group. This evokes a beginning of deconfinement during the second week of June, or the fourth week of July.
# #Coronavirus pandemic: #confinement could last until mid-June, or even longer, according to the prestigious consulting firm #Boston Consulting Group. Their hypothesis is that the epidemic peak will take place in the 3rd week of May in France. # COVID19 https://t.co/pSjPznZn1B pic.twitter.com/1gTZ3axayy
- Conflicts (@Conflits_FR) April 8, 2020"Coronavirus pandemic: containment could last until mid-June or more, according to the prestigious consulting firm Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Their hypothesis is that the epidemic peak will take place in the 3rd week of May in France, "said a viral tweet in the wake of the many messages relaying this document, often presented as the" forecasts "of the American group of international scope.
There are, for twenty countries - including France - different scenarios including a date of epidemic peak and release from confinement. But if the authenticity of the file circulating on social networks is not in doubt, BCG warns however about the exact nature of this document.
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"This is not a point of view or a publication of the BCG, but a simple working document under development", indicates an internal source to 20 Minutes .
The document of about thirty pages, dated March 26, 2020 and entitled "Epidemic forecasts", indeed emphasizes several times that it is not intended to be made public, while specifying that it must be " considered a beta version: a more detailed [version] is under development ”. “The situation with the Covid-19 is changing very quickly, on a daily basis. Although we have been very careful in developing this document, it represents BCG's point of view at one time, and this presentation is neither a medical or safety guide (or substitute) nor the recommendation of 'a particular [health] strategy ”, can we read from the first pages.
“Working hypotheses” intended for companies
“As a strategy consultancy, we often work on scenario development. These are working hypotheses (and not forecasts) which allow companies to build adaptation strategies in contexts of high uncertainty ”, specifies the BCG. He added “Any situation creating great uncertainty (health, geopolitical, economic crises, etc.) can legitimize the use of scenarios as a working tool. We do not communicate on these because they are intended exclusively for our customers and that these data can cause confusion [since they are not forecasts] ».
"The scenarios [...] present in this document can vary between 100 and 1,000 times and reflect a range of scenarios, recognizing that things can happen differently," said BCG in a statement published on its website.
In this case, the document's methodology for calculating the date of deconfinement by country notably consists in taking as a first benchmark the duration of confinement in Hubei, the province of China of which the epidemic is a part, and which has gradually lifted its movement restrictions in recent days. It then takes into account the effectiveness of the measures specific to each country, including the number of hospital beds in relation to the population, or the number of deaths due to breathing difficulties.
The track of a progressive deconfinement, by region
In Wuhan, the capital of Hubei placed in confinement on January 23, it officially ended on April 8, with the resumption of all public transport and the possibility of leaving the city. But in practice, its 11 million inhabitants had already resumed their daily activities in recent weeks, provided they present the required medical document in certain public places, as RFI points out.
Contacted by 20 Minutes , the Ministry of Health did not respond to our requests on the date of a possible epidemic peak in France. But as Edouard Philippe reminded yesterday, the questions on deconfinement "are very largely premature": "We will discuss the essential elements when the hypotheses on which we are working will be verified, the scenarios will be written".
At present, the track of a progressive deconfinement by region is envisaged - and recommended by the Academy of Medicine -, while the high official Jean Castex was invested with this strategic mission.
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