Human-to-human contact 80% reduction to converge infection Expert Group April 3 18:26
Regarding the spread of the new coronavirus in the future, a simulation suggests that even if the contact between humans is reduced by more than 20%, an explosive spread cannot be avoided, and if 80% is reduced, the infection will converge. Was compiled by a group of experts on infectious diseases. Experts point out that "now is important and the government and government should take immediate action."
The simulations were performed by groups such as Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Hokkaido University, who specializes in infectious diseases and is a member of the national cluster response team.
Starting from the day when the trend began,
場合 If no action is taken,
場合 If you make a request to refrain from going out slowly and reduce the contact between people by 20%,
▽ We analyzed the number of new infections per 100,000 people each day when the number of contacts was reduced by 80% due to strong outing restrictions.
As a result, over 30 days after the start of the epidemic, 6100 people
場合 If you reduce contact by 20%, more than 4900 people,
▽ If you reduce 80%, it will be more than 1200 people.
afterwards,
If no measures were taken or if contact was reduced by 20%, it would be difficult to prevent an explosive increase in patients = overshoot.
On the other hand, if the number of contacts is reduced by 80%, the infection will converge.
In the case of Tokyo, the situation is about 10 days to 2 weeks after the epidemic started, and it is said that this is an important aspect of whether overshoot can be prevented.
Professor Nishiura, who conducted the analysis, said, “Only requests for self-restraint like this can reduce contact by only about 20%. To reduce 80%, it is necessary to go out close to Europe, and the government and local governments must take immediate action. But it is also imperative that healthcare, public transport, and logistics efforts are in place to reduce the impact on society, and that every citizen be prepared to do something without panic. " I am.