Report: New home sales in the first quarter fell 30% year-on-year

Zhongxin Jingwei Client on April 3 (Xue Yufei intern Lang Jingning, Lin Yunsi) The Shell Research Institute released a report on the 2nd that in the first quarter of this year, it monitored the total transaction area of ​​new houses and the total number of transactions in 66 large and medium-sized cities. They were 42.47 million square meters and 370,000 units, respectively, with cumulative declines of 28.6% and 30.7% year-on-year. Among them, the number of new home transactions in first- and second-tier cities fell by more than 30% year-on-year, and third- and fourth-tier cities fell by 17.1% year-on-year. The institute believes that this is mainly because the first and second tier cities are more affected by the epidemic.

Data Map Xin Jingwei in the Sales Department Sand Table Photo by Xue Yufei

In terms of second-hand housing, the sales volume of second-hand housing in the first quarter of Lianjia 18 City decreased by 39.2% month-on-month and 44.6% year-on-year. This quarter's transaction volume was the lowest level in the past five years and the transaction volume in March returned to 63% of the same period last year. . However, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, believes that with the improved demand for “selling small houses and buying big houses” actively entering the market, the pace of improved demand release will accelerate in the second quarter, and transaction volume is expected to increase by 40% year-on-year. However, in the second half of the year, the correlation between market trends and the downside risks of the global economy has increased, and there is still uncertainty.

The number of new home transactions in first- and second-tier cities fell by more than 30%

According to the Shell Research Institute, affected by the epidemic, the transaction scale of 66 large and medium-sized cities in the first quarter of 2020 was not satisfactory. The total transaction area and the total number of units sold were 42.47 million square meters and 370,000 units, respectively, a cumulative decline of 28.6% and 30.7% year-on-year. .

Source: Shell Research Institute

In terms of city level, the number of transactions in first-tier cities fell by 39.5% year-on-year, and the transaction area fell by 38.4% year-on-year. Among them, Shanghai and Guangzhou fell sharply, the transaction area fell by more than 40% year-on-year, and the Beijing transaction area fell by 36% year-on-year. Shenzhen's trading volume remained at a low level. The impact of the epidemic in the first quarter was relatively small, and the transaction area increased by 2% year-on-year.

The Institute believes that in the long run, the demand in first-tier cities is still there, and the first-tier cities that have fallen sharply after the epidemic will rebound to a certain extent.

In the first quarter, the number of transactions in second-tier cities fell 34.9% year-on-year, and the transaction area fell 31.7% year-on-year. However, some cities have shown better market resilience during the epidemic situation. For example, the transaction volume of commercial housing in Nanjing and Xiamen maintained an increase under the epidemic situation, which increased by 6% and 11% respectively in the first quarter. Among them, the transaction volume of Nanjing ranked among the second-tier cities. Fifth, eye-catching performance. Hangzhou's trading volume experienced the smallest year-on-year decline in the first quarter, only 5%, and remained stable overall.

According to the aforesaid research institute, Hangzhou is the first city in China to comprehensively launch an "online sales office" system at the government level, effectively responding to the stagnation of offline sales. Nanjing Housing Management Bureau proposed on February 20 that offline sales of real estate should be resumed, and the nation's real estate market was "frozen", seizing market opportunities.

"First- and second-tier cities have experienced a large decline and are mainly affected by the severity of the epidemic. It is expected that after the market enters the recovery period, first- and second-tier cities will also enter a rapid growth stage and become the main driving force for market growth again." The Institute said.

Among the city tiers, third- and fourth-tier cities were the least affected by the epidemic. In the first quarter, the number of new home transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities fell 17.1% year-on-year, and transaction area fell 15.6% year-on-year.

Second-hand housing transaction volume recovered to 60% in the same period last year

Another report from the Shell Research Institute on the 2nd showed that among the 18 important cities it monitored, the transaction volume of second-hand homes (that is, the number of units sold) in the first quarter decreased by 39.2% month-on-month and 44.6% year-on-year. The lowest level of five-year quarterly transactions.

However, the institute also said: "As the national epidemic prevention and control situation is stable and the market transactions are quickly repaired in March, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in key 18 cities has increased by 41.8% over the January-February transaction volume. The level of 63% in March last year. The market shows a clear "V" trend, indicating that China's real estate market is relatively resilient. "

It is understood that the key 18 cities of the chain include Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dalian, Tianjin, Langfang, Xi'an, Jinan, Qingdao, Yantai, Wuhan, Nanjing, Hefei, Hangzhou, Changsha, Chongqing, and Chengdu.

The second-hand housing market recovered rapidly in the first quarter, showing three characteristics. First, the strength of recovery is strong in the south and the weak in the north. The recovery in the Yangtze River Delta region is the strongest, and Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are the weakest. The degree of recovery in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (representative cities are Beijing, Tianjin, and Langfang) is weaker than in other regions. In March, the transaction volume was about 62% of the level in December last year, equivalent to 40% of the same period last year.

The second is just to go first. As the resumption of work and production progressed steadily, the backlog of demand due to the epidemic situation began to be released in March, mainly due to the rapid accumulation of demand that had accumulated in the early stage to drive the market to pick up.

Third, the volume increase and price stability were stable, and the market rebound did not push up the price. The average price of 14 cities in the key 17 cities in March dropped from the average price of transactions in January and February. The institute said that the reason the market rebounded but did not push up the price is that the current transaction is a low rebound. Overall, the absolute level is still low, and it has not reached the level that can significantly increase the price. And the overall supply-demand contradiction is still relatively relaxed. In most cities, the owner's price adjustment accounts for less than 30% of the price increase, and the buyer's market position is high.

For the future, the Shell Research Institute predicts that the second-hand housing market will continue to recover in the second quarter, but there are long-term uncertainties. The data shows that the number of new homes and new customers in the second-hand housing market in the city chain in March 18 both rebounded rapidly. The number of new customers increased by 53.2% month-on-month and 96.2% year-on-year. Monthly peak levels of visitor volume.

At the same time, the improvement demand of "selling small houses and buying big houses" is actively entering the market, and the pace of improving demand release in the second quarter will accelerate. Since the outbreak, the proportion of newly listed listings below 90 square meters and the proportion of small-bedroom listings has increased significantly, while the proportion of large-sized and sub-new homes has increased. The epidemic has also increased customer preference for slabs with better ventilation and anti-epidemic conditions.

In terms of different regions, the market recovery is expected to be "Yangtze River Delta> second-tier capital cities> Pearl River Delta> Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei" in the second quarter.

In the end, the Shell Research Institute believes that when the real estate regulation and control policy remains stable and the domestic economy recovers, there will be a certain downturn after the second quarter and it will become active after October. However, due to the serious recession risk of the global economy affected by the epidemic, the domestic real estate market is also facing the challenge of income effects such as high corporate and residential leverage, epidemic-induced income instability and even unemployment. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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