Questions increase about the possible duration of the continued spread of the Covid-19 virus, with the world witnessing the closure of airports and cities, a curfew, a quarantine and a high rate of infection, and in light of our previous success in containing several epidemics, but this virus is still difficult to contain, and the world is waiting impatiently Patience and fear Discover a vaccine that changes the rules of this battle with the Corona virus, but research centers and experts believe that the delay in finding a treatment is much better than a drug whose results may be negative and useless.

Some people recall the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in late 2002, and how the world dealt with it at the time, as the disease spread in 26 countries and affected 8098 people, but the measures of health isolation for the injured and examination in airports were enough to eradicate the epidemic in 18 months, No injuries have been reported since 2004, according to the Dubai Future Foundation's "Observatory of the Future."

It is unlikely to eliminate the virus very quickly, as it seems easy to spread from person to person, until it has spread to more than 175 countries and territories, and these statistics show the importance of finding a vaccine for the SARS-Cove-2 virus that causes Covid-19 disease.

"The presence of a vaccine will change the rules of the game, but it is not easy to develop a successful vaccine so quickly," Dr. Bharat Pankhania, senior consultant in the fight against infectious diseases, and a clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, was quoted by The National Emirates.

According to Mark Lipsic, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, 40 to 70% of the world's adult population will be affected by the pandemic, until a vaccine appears. The alternative possibility is that the infected will gain long-term protection, which leads to the so-called "herd immunity", as the pathogen finds it difficult to spread because of the low number of people at risk, and this possibility guarantees limiting the effect of the virus during any possible future outbreaks, but the possibility The acquisition of immunity by people has not been confirmed.

Another possibility is that the virus will weaken or become less powerful as it evolves, and that happens when the deadly forms die from it as a result of killing the host human being. It is not transmitted to another person, and viruses often decrease, but this does not happen in the short term.

Positive news

Despite the many bad news, we see some positive news, as the increasing number of cases in some European countries is offset by a significant decrease in the spread of the pandemic in other places, such as China, Singapore and South Korea, as a result of the governments' response in these countries with the disease quickly, benefiting from the accumulation Its experiences in dealing with the spread of the SARS epidemic and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which is why China eased some measures of physical spacing after achieving positive results.

It may take about 18 months, when the vaccine is in production, to prevent preventative measures, such as physical spacing and frequent hand-washing operations.

Strenuous efforts

The world is witnessing unremitting endeavors to reach a cure and vaccine for the virus, as the World Health Organization cooperates with scientists working to develop about 20 new vaccines, after about 60 days after determining the DNA sequence of the virus, and clinical trials of some of these vaccines have already begun.

"We have to deal very carefully with the development of a new vaccine, because we are going to inject it into almost all human bodies," said Dr. Mike Ryan, CEO of the WHO's emergency program.

Super computer

Scientists have assigned the fastest supercomputer the task of simulating thousands of attempts to develop a drug for Covid-19 disease. The IBM supercomputer called "SMETT", located at Oak Ridge National Laboratories in Tennessee, has reached 77 potential treatments against Covid-19, according to CNN.

Until the vaccine appears, 40 to 70% of the world's adult population will be infected with the epidemic.