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15% of the population, about seven million people would have already been infected with Covid-19 in Spain. That is one of the estimates made by a recently published study by the British Imperial College, which is far from the official figures, which speak of just over 85,000 cases in our country.
The study also indicates that, thanks to the decreed containment measures, around 16,000 lives have been saved in our country to date .
Using a mathematical model, the researchers have estimated the numbers of those affected by Covid -19 and the impact of non-medical interventions in 11 European countries . In addition to Spain, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom are also included in the study.
Among them, Spain would be the country with the highest percentage of affected population. According to his calculations, in Spain there would be between 3.7% and 41% of the infected population, with an average value of 15%, which is equivalent to approximately seven million people infected.
"In Spain, a large increase in the number of deaths has recently been observed. Given that its population is smaller [than other countries], our model estimates that a higher percentage of the population, around 15%, has been infected until date, "says the study text.
In any case, Salvador Peiró , spokesman for the Spanish Society of Public Health and Health Administration (SESPAS) points out that this number of infected people could be overestimated.
The increase in mortality observed in the case of Spain, points out the expert, has more to do with the type of population affected than with the total number of affected in the country.
"In the case of Madrid (and probably Northern Italy) the virus circulated freely during the last two weeks of February and the first weeks of March. It infected health and residential personnel (sometimes shared), it infected patients who come to centers health, emergency, outpatient consultations, and these spread among themselves and the epidemic spread rapidly in especially vulnerable populations (chronic patients, elderly people), an aspect that has resulted in an increase in mortality due to the type of population affected ", points out.
Peiró adds that "it is possible that Madrid or Barcelona have infected rates of 15% or even higher ", but these figures are probably lower elsewhere. Large cities, he recalls, are "much more exposed" than smaller towns, which does not mean that outbreaks of the infection have also occurred in small municipalities.
The British team's estimates suggest that, since there are many more infected, the case fatality rate in our country is actually much lower, which would confirm that the vast majority of the affected population would have suffered only mild symptoms of the disease.
In the list of countries with the largest affected population, according to the study's estimates, the following would be Italy, with 9.8% of those infected and behind it would be, quite a distance, Belgium and Switzerland, with, respectively, 3.7% and 3.2% of those affected. At the tail end, with the lowest percentages of those affected, according to this study, would be Norway , with 0.41% and Germany , with 0.72% of infected population.
In this sense, Peiró believes that although the work is a good modeling of the impact of the measures taken in Europe, it also has limitations, such as the fact that it uses "a common model for all of Europe, using mainly information from countries with more data, Italy and Spain, simply because they are more advanced ".
The problem, he continues, is that the diffusion characteristics of the epidemic and, therefore, the impact of population interventions, "are different in different countries."
"The countries are not homogeneous," emphasizes Peiró, who recalls that the SARS-CoV-2 takes enormous advantage of mobility structures (such as trains, subways, buses) and social structures (conferences, parties, bars), among others. It must be taken into account, for example, that approximately 50% of people between the ages of 18 and 35 in Spain live with their parents, says the expert. This has an impact on the spread of the disease.
On the other hand, he adds, the model "forgets that the dead in Spain are concentrated in Madrid and Barcelona" and extends these results to 50 million of the population.
Lives saved
On the other hand, the study has also made an estimate of the number of lives that have been saved on the continent thanks to the measures that have been taken.
Thus, it estimates that, in total, an average of 59,000 deaths have been avoided , 16,000 of them in Spain.
Their calculations predicted that, at the end of March, there would be between 5,500 and 11,000 deaths in our country, estimating an average of 7,700 (the latest data shows 7,368 deaths). However, if the measures imposed had not been taken, the study assures, this figure could have been much higher. According to their estimates, an average of some 16,000 deaths have been avoided, although the range they handle ranges from 5,400 to 35,000 cases.
For Peiró, "The model advances a reduction in mortality that does not seem compatible with our knowledge of the transition between infection, symptoms, hospitalization, ICU, death. We would need a little more than 2 weeks for a reduction in infections to translate into a reduction in mortality figures, as it seems we are beginning to see, "he points out.
"Still, the model gives enough clues that containment is working to reduce spread and mortality and, even without believing the exact numbers they offer, it seems to indicate that the orientation of the strategies is good, which is important," concludes.
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